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January 3-4 "Threat"


anthonyweather

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they better hope the radar rapidly falls apart....
I admire your optimism :-)

That band lying over central NJ needs to push NW and soon. This is the banding that models had along the Del River with the higher amounts and steep drop-off just west of there. Lower Bucks has been sitting under subsidence between a band to the west and this band to our East. Our snowfall this morning is dependent on this feature. If we arent under the fronto band by 7-8am here my 1-3" for my area is in serious jeopardy. I think it makes it here in time but the lp was about 25 miles East of my threshold and that band is about 25 miles to our East right now and we are under subsidence with an exploding lp starting to pull the best dynamics East closer to it's center.
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Dewpoint was 10F about half hour ago...now 13F.
This is the dry slot 6abc and FOX29 were referring to which sucks unless it fills in somewhat quickly. It's kinda pissing me off...
ds.jpg.435ab347b42805a128a22ebd704a02bd.jpg
Subsidence. This may be Action News 6's finest hour if this feature persists. I realize it will probably fill in later this AM as the system begins pulling away but it is going to be gutwrenching to watch and the wait is going to feel like forever. Im feeling really good about 1-3" here.
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Hrrr ticked totals up here to 5 or 6" with heaviest stuff arriving between 9am and noon. Between now and 9 looks intermittent, not really persistent steady. Still showing patchy subsidence in and around the area.

Low is staying farther W than modeled if that helps. Trying to stay along the baroclinic zone and coastal front. You can see it on satellite really trying to resist that jump east that most models had. Cautiously optimistic.

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37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
4 hours ago, Birds~69 said:
Dewpoint was 10F about half hour ago...now 13F.
This is the dry slot 6abc and FOX29 were referring to which sucks unless it fills in somewhat quickly. It's kinda pissing me off...
ds.jpg.435ab347b42805a128a22ebd704a02bd.jpg

Subsidence. This may be Action News 6's finest hour if this feature persists. I realize it will probably fill in later this AM as the system begins pulling away but it is going to be gutwrenching to watch and the wait is going to feel like forever. Im feeling really good about 1-3" here.

It filled in somewhat and I'm out of it. You can see the heavier bands lining up to come in from off shore.

Probably an inch right now winds picking up. (sideways snow) This stuff will really blow around once accumulation and wind increase.

slot.jpg

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Latest WXSIM still paints 2" to 4"  here in NW Chester County = I am not buying high end - maybe if we are lucky 2" - looks like the moderate band is going to set up just east of me in Chesco  - we shall see

WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at  5:54 AM Jan 4, 2018
 _______________________________________________________________________________
 
 Today: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in the
 afternoon. High 22, but temperatures falling in the afternoon. Wind chill
 ranging from 0 to 11. Wind north-northwest around 16 mph, gusting to 23 mph.
 Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly
 around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches.

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Getting interesting at the shore. Winds cranking and snow picking up. Figure 3-4” so far. Plows just came through. Going to be some serious drifting going on along the county roads not fenced. Vis has dropped to about 1/4M.

Thanks for posting the images of this monster.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Satellite loop with radar overlay is showing the storm speeding up and really starting to zip off to the ENE last 45 minutes. Im going to venture a guess it is out of SE PA by noon.....1pm latest. That hrrr above wont verify based on current obs.

From the radar loop It looks like it is beginning to break in Lancaster Co and moving east. 

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27 minutes ago, BBasile said:

Is it just me or does satellite show this thing pulling away from the coast with a much more easterly direction than the models have forecast?

Edit:  Should have read before I posted.  Guess it's not just me.  

 

Yeah, last night it was moving northerly, then jogged west a bit, and now has been making a beeline almost due east before moving northeast.

 

 

goes16-ir1-01042018.gif

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4 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Yeah, last night it was moving northerly, then jogged west a bit, and now has been making a beeline almost due east before moving northeast.

 

 

 

Yep, seems to be making a turn back towards the NE again, but not before making a nice little run ots first.  With some nice speed, might I add.  It's moving.   

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31 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

While we were never supposed to jackpot from this storm, so glad we're able to pick up a few inches from it. It would have been too painful watching this powerhouse pass by to our east with little more than cirrus to show for it!

Yes, and partly because of that, I'm enjoying the heck out of it! I could do this all day, radar checking, storm discussion and observations, watching the snow and wind, getting out in it, just thoroughly enjoying it.

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1 hour ago, jwilson said:

With some blocking and this thing kicked towards land about 100 miles, I can't imagine what we could have experienced.

Well, the next storm is always 7 days away!

Yeah, that would have been interesting. I'm curious if the Arctic air would have suppressed the storm, and or induced too much dry air. I prefer just enough cold for storms. 

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