JTA66 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Agreed, Paul. I like the idea of 2-4 north of the turnpike and west of 476. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Well anxious to post my unprofessional obs at my location. Just looking at news and what you all have posted chesco getting brushed-the bomb is way east of me. Virga to start radar might look good then boom-it takes off ne and I'm in the cut off. Been here before . Not complaining, it's cold might get some good gusts in the pm tomorrow. Be safe all! See u in the obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 23 minutes ago, Lady Di said: Well anxious to post my unprofessional obs at my location. Just looking at news and what you all have posted chesco getting brushed-the bomb is way east of me. Virga to start radar might look good then boom-it takes off ne and I'm in the cut off. Been here before . Not complaining, it's cold might get some good gusts in the pm tomorrow. Be safe all! See u in the obs thread. If you're still in Avondale PA I think you'll get a little something out of this...1-2" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I know we're closing in on the storm but just wanted to point out SREF plumes jumped up again on mean snowfall. Pottstown - 2.74" to now 4.72" North Philly Airport - 5.5" to 6.5" Allentown - 1.9" to 3.05" Trenton - 5.5" to 6.74" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Final Call: Lehigh Valley 2 to 4" Central Bucks/mont/west chester 3 to 6" Lower Bucks/mont/philadelphia/delaware 4 to 8" Mercer county through vineland,NJ 6 to 10" Vineland to the coast up to toms river 8 to 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Final Call: Lehigh Valley 2 to 4" Central Bucks/mont/west chester 3 to 6" Lower Bucks/mont/philadelphia/delaware 4 to 8" Mercer county through vineland,NJ 6 to 10" Vineland to the coast up to toms river 8 to 12" I'll go with that...sounds about right. You really can't tell till it arrives and things start filling in/intensity or not? Ch 6 would cringe at such high totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 NAM is west but precip shield has shrunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 21 minutes ago, hazwoper said: NAM is west but precip shield has shrunk Big time. It took me right out of the ball game with perhaps a couple of mood flakes for the effort... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 NAM is west but precip shield has shrunkSo has hrrr. Hardly anything noteworthy west of I95 now c-2" on that crap model. I dont like how this doesnt look like it is going to hit my benchmark down by Hatteras. It is about 50 miles too far east for my liking. Remember, get lp to 50 miles or less east of hatteras and SE PA does well. More than 50 miles east and much lower chance for the tug west and low totals SE PA. Nowcast time. I did glance quickly at recent models and what i dont like is that now it seems like we are relying on an expanding precip shield as the low starts to pull away. Thinking 1-3" for my area. Been conservative all year and had each system overperform so why switch it up now? :-DI will gladly take a minor event as I generally held my expectations low and in-check. Obviously hoped/hoping for higher amounts but considering this was going to Bermuda a few days ago and Im off a.ready tomorrow, any accums are a win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 This outcome would be laughable especially considering my kids SD just sent a cancellation email for tomorrow. Kiss of death LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 This outcome would be laughable especially considering my kids SD just sent a cancellation email for tomorrow. Kiss of death LOLDitto. Got the call as the 3k NAM and hrrr qpf maps were popping up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Sorry guys I'm hoping for a bust. Being younger yeah bring it; but its no fun driving to work in the snow and then dealing with it at work at 25 years of age. UNLESS, I'm off then bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Boy, this would be a real slap in the face. Just watch the radar at this point I guess....damn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Sorry all, it looks like the "Lower Bucks Snow Hole Screw Zone" has expanded out to be the "SEPA Snow Hole Screw Zone". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Plokoon111 said: Sorry guys I'm hoping for a bust. Being younger yeah bring it; but its no fun driving to work in the snow and then dealing with it at work at 25 years of age. UNLESS, I'm off then bring it on! Try being a big rig driver. It's one of the reasons that, unless a big dog is coming, I hate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 If these trends continue, there are going to be quite a few school districts closed because of flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just got in after being out most of the day. The NAM is laughable guys can't be right it doesn't even have the current surface depiction right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 the nam didn't have the snow in cape may going on right now at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 So why do i kee hearing certIon people saying its developing further west the. Expected. An also steve D is saying radar is filling in west of dc which also wasn’t expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Just got in after being out most of the day. The NAM is laughable guys can't be right it doesn't even have the current surface depiction right. exactly it's off right now. why would anyone jump ship based on that and the HURRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 HM touched on this on twitter, but even though the Low Pressure is further west like it is on the NAM doesn't mean a more west precip shield. The further west LP actually has the ability to pull much more drier air down from the NW side, resulting in less of a western precip shield. I wouldn't sweat it though. Look at radar, obs, and SPC Meso page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stormman96 said: So why do i kee hearing certIon people saying its developing further west the. Expected. An also steve D is saying radar is filling in west of dc which also wasn’t expected Not sure what you are seeing. Precip has hit a wall at DC doorstep and all the way up 95 to BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: Not sure what you are seeing. Precip has hit a wall at DC doorstep and all the way up 95 to BWI the nam had it no where near there by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: the nam had it no where near there by now. YeH, but reports are nothing coming from it. So it isn’t good if it has literally stopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 i mean look at the sim radars and what is currently going on. it is snowing in places that shouldn't be snowing until 2 or 3 hours from now. obviously there will be a period of virga but as of now the current radar looks great. if it actually looked like the nam or HURRR i'd be worried, but the current radar looks good even if there is some virga to get through. the low is just beginning to bomb now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Some MA forum weenies are panicked over the NAM/RRRrr to the Potomac lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 look at the dover radar loop... you can't see that and not be encouraged if you are in se pa and SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 27 minutes ago, shemATC said: Sorry all, it looks like the "Lower Bucks Snow Hole Screw Zone" has expanded out to be the "SEPA Snow Hole Screw Zone". Your killing me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 RGEM coming in now...looks very close to what is going on now early. at 6z it is looking really nice and actually is a great estimate of where snow may be at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 RGEM says back away from the ledge weenies...solid hit for everyone and it is nearly spot on with the current radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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