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January 3-4 "Threat"


anthonyweather

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57 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Not being the most knowledgeable weenie in the forum, does that allow the storm to push farther north before being shunted east?

From reading HM on twitter it's about convection and the precip field expanding west. If I understand him correctly, it's not about the surface low position as much as the explosiveness of the storm. 

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5 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

This will over perform, even Glenn is feeling it. 

There will be meso banding setting up no doubt. Dec 10 storm I was placed perfectly in the heavier banding. Hoping for a repeat in the western precip shield. Hoping i'm not in a subsidence zone, though. Either way this storm was one of the most frustrating yet enjoyable storms to track in a while.

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17 minutes ago, Newman said:

There will be meso banding setting up no doubt. Dec 10 storm I was placed perfectly in the heavier banding. Hoping for a repeat in the western precip shield. Hoping i'm not in a subsidence zone, though. Either way this storm was one of the most frustrating yet enjoyable storms to track in a while.

I found out from reading Anthony's tweets that it wasn't going to phase, and not worry about SLP location with something so dynamic. 

He saved me a lot of aggravation 

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I think conservative is a fair play for right now.  Even some of the meso models aren't in total agreement about placement of precip shield.  I think 1-10" is a good call, though not entirely specific.

A real shame we don't have some blocking with this storm.  Reminds me of those February beasts from 2010.

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Just now, jwilson said:

I think conservative is a fair play for right now.  Even some of the meso models aren't in total agreement about placement of precip shield.  I think 1-10" is a good call, though not entirely specific.

A real shame we don't have some blocking with this storm.  Reminds me of those February beasts from 2010.

It's probably due to the dry air and where subsidence might set up.... plus the infamous "dry slots" when you have deathbands setting up over your neighboring forum members whilst screwing others. ;)

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Ch6 sticking with the 1-3 call from the city on N&W. Glenn is going with 4-8 across the same area. Thing is, it's hard to criticize either forecast -- some lifting here, some subsidence there and someone's forecast is going to bust. But who's??

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2 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Ch6 sticking with the 1-3 call from the city on N&W. Glenn is going with 4-8 across the same area. Thing is, it's hard to criticize either forecast -- some lifting here, some subsidence there and someone's forecast is going to bust. But who's??

Looks like they are running most of the city in their 3" - 6" and NW Philly on N & W in the 1" - 3".

 

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With the 18z data not surprisingly beginning to lower forecasts for the NW burbs...a general 3" to 5" for now - still might be a bit high - I am liking a 2" to 4" range

 WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at  6:00 PM Jan 3, 2018
 _______________________________________________________________________________
 
 Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A
 chance of snow after midnight. Low 17. Wind chill ranging from 6 to 23. Wind
 north-northeast around 2 mph in the evening, becoming 7 mph, gusting to 16 mph,
 after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2
 inches.
 
 Thursday: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in
 the afternoon. High 20. Wind chill around 4. Wind north-northwest around 15 mph,
 gusting to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches.

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