Voyager Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looks like the EURO came west a bit with the precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 yep euro is still the outlier of dry solutions but it trended again towards the meso models. Imo it is chasing the pack and not leading guidance but you never know. Typically when the euro is alone and has trended towards the rest of the pack with each run, it is a red flag this far out that it should it is behind other guidance. we have been burned badly picking the euro over the pack this far out. The fact it pushed precip further west than 00z was all I was looking for. It was never going to show a precip bomb like the NAM, it doesn't swing wildy run to run like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Right now my call is 1-3" Lehigh valley with lolli's of 4 and 5", 3-6" south of there to the delaware river with lolli's of 7 or 8", 6-10" with lolli's of 12" from trenton to SNJ. With even the globals shifting towards the precip coming in more west, I think the NAM/RGEM which have led the way, is the blend for right now. RGEM isn't as robust precip wise as the NAM but matches my thinking more. The GFS I think is clearly struggling with the banding and is why precip isn't as heavy towards SNJ. I think the meso's will pick up much better on this which is why you are seeing those big totals in SNJ on them. I'll issue a final call this evening but I am not anticipating many changes. With the trends in the last 24 hours I wouldn't expect to lower amounts but I could see raising them if the NAM/RGEM continue to push that heavy band(deform maybe) more west. Even though the euro and uk haven't ran, I still think a WSW warning should be issued for at least lower bucks/montgomery/philadelphia and north towards mercer county. Tomorrow's commute could be horrible especially if the 1-3 inch forecasts don't change and folks aren't expecting that big of a deal outside of s NJ. Lots of people out on the roads expecting a minor storm getting stuck in a much heavier storm could mean lots of accidents tomorrow. And with the frozen ground, the snow is going to stick immediately no matter how much rock salt is put down.Someone please define "SNJ" in terms of geography? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, The Plowsman said: 3 hours ago, The Iceman said: Right now my call is 1-3" Lehigh valley with lolli's of 4 and 5", 3-6" south of there to the delaware river with lolli's of 7 or 8", 6-10" with lolli's of 12" from trenton to SNJ. With even the globals shifting towards the precip coming in more west, I think the NAM/RGEM which have led the way, is the blend for right now. RGEM isn't as robust precip wise as the NAM but matches my thinking more. The GFS I think is clearly struggling with the banding and is why precip isn't as heavy towards SNJ. I think the meso's will pick up much better on this which is why you are seeing those big totals in SNJ on them. I'll issue a final call this evening but I am not anticipating many changes. With the trends in the last 24 hours I wouldn't expect to lower amounts but I could see raising them if the NAM/RGEM continue to push that heavy band(deform maybe) more west. Even though the euro and uk haven't ran, I still think a WSW warning should be issued for at least lower bucks/montgomery/philadelphia and north towards mercer county. Tomorrow's commute could be horrible especially if the 1-3 inch forecasts don't change and folks aren't expecting that big of a deal outside of s NJ. Lots of people out on the roads expecting a minor storm getting stuck in a much heavier storm could mean lots of accidents tomorrow. And with the frozen ground, the snow is going to stick immediately no matter how much rock salt is put down. Someone please define "SNJ" in terms of geography? To me SNJ is south of Trenton/I-195. I know it's not exact but I feel that's what describes it best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Last time VA Beach was under a B warning we didn't do so well here in chesco--hoping to cover the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-airmass-48-1-100 Does anyone else think the trough already is going negative or am I just having weenie hallucinations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12k NAM definitely east this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Better Upper Level Jet placement on the new 12k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Newman said: Better Upper Level Jet placement on the new 12k NAM. Not being the most knowledgeable weenie in the forum, does that allow the storm to push farther north before being shunted east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, shemATC said: 12k NAM definitely east this run. the 12K is the same the 32K coarser output I believe, but they are the same model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 20 minutes ago, The Iceman said: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-airmass-48-1-100 Does anyone else think the trough already is going negative or am I just having weenie hallucinations? Does not matter. its the energy diving through the GLs now that is the kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: the 12K is the same the 32K coarser output I believe, but they are the same model. I know, I'm distinguishing 12k from 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Nam low is east but precip is relatively unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: Not being the most knowledgeable weenie in the forum, does that allow the storm to push farther north before being shunted east? I'm not a complete expert on upper level features as well, but the further NW jet placement should allow for us to be put in a better position for upper level divergence, which in return allows for more convergence and lift at the surface which could be enough to over come the Cold Air Advection and allow for the precip shield to expand further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, shemATC said: I know, I'm distinguishing 12k from 3k ahh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18Z 3K low placement is east at 16, but not much difference at surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3k NAM is an absolute beast. 948 low maybe a tad east of 12z but qpf is going to be epic for SNJ. Even lower SE PA gets into heavy banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yeah you can see the last two runs for the 3k NAM. Shape of storm slightly different, and different methods of how we get the qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 going to be really fun tracking this one tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 this is either a typo, or Houston we have a problem - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CRB Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NWS upgraded to Winter Storm Warning for SNJ. Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 317 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...High Impact Storm including the aftermath of wind driven record cold on its way to our area... ...A rapidly intensifying coastal storm will produce significant snowfall and strong winds tonight through Thursday... NJZ012-015>019-PAZ070-071-104-106-041000- /O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.180104T0200Z-180105T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0001.180104T0200Z-180105T0000Z/ Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington- Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of New Brunswick, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Media, Philadelphia, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 317 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Tree branches could fall as well. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches are expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Scattered power outages could develop Thursday and Friday which would force considerable hardship where heat would not be available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, CRB said: NWS upgraded to Winter Storm Warning for SNJ. Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 317 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...High Impact Storm including the aftermath of wind driven record cold on its way to our area... ...A rapidly intensifying coastal storm will produce significant snowfall and strong winds tonight through Thursday... NJZ012-015>019-PAZ070-071-104-106-041000- /O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.180104T0200Z-180105T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0001.180104T0200Z-180105T0000Z/ Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington- Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of New Brunswick, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Media, Philadelphia, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 317 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Tree branches could fall as well. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches are expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Scattered power outages could develop Thursday and Friday which would force considerable hardship where heat would not be available. Looks like for part of SEPA as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If the 3k NAM is correct 12z-16z is going to be heavy snow from central bucks through the coast. Would be a catastrophic commute if people don't cancel work/school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, B Dawk 20 said: Looks like for part of SEPA as well yup, posted this in wrong thread. Immediate burbs and Philly under WSW for 5-7" URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 317 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...High Impact Storm including the aftermath of wind driven record cold on its way to our area... ...A rapidly intensifying coastal storm will produce significant snowfall and strong winds tonight through Thursday... NJZ012-015>019-PAZ070-071-104-106-041000- /O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.180104T0200Z-180105T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0001.180104T0200Z-180105T0000Z/ Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington- Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of New Brunswick, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Media, Philadelphia, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 317 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Tree branches could fall as well. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches are expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Scattered power outages could develop Thursday and Friday which would force considerable hardship where heat would not be available. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Lehigh valley and upper bucks/montco upgraded to WWA too. Jersey shore upgraded to blizzard warning. The NWS homepage looks so pretty right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, The Iceman said: If the 3k NAM is correct 12z-16z is going to be heavy snow from central bucks through the coast. Would be a catastrophic commute if people don't cancel work/school. Like wise, north of us, imagine the evening commute in RI and Boston if this verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: this is either a typo, or Houston we have a problem - I'm not familiar with these buoys but looking at the readings it is missing measurements for 2 previous hours along with .16in ice accretion per hour... think I would be taking that with a grain of salt. (winds also shifted from due east to due west between readings) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Lehigh valley and upper bucks/montco upgraded to WWA too. Jersey shore upgraded to blizzard warning. The NWS homepage looks so pretty right now Classic East Coast Snowstorm: WWA for out here 2-4". That's EXACTLY what I was telling people today to expect. "But 69 News says C-1"! Ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Newman said: Wow, Mount Holly Updated AGAIN. More snow for up here! Old map........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think you meant to post this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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