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January 3-4 "Threat"

anthonyweather

By anthonyweather,
in Philadelphia Region

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted

looks like the NAM might win again.

yet, will probably still be ignored for future storms.   Unbelievable the amount of times the NAM has been the first to trend towards the right direction, yet still downplayed.

also, whole town of Charleston, SC is practically shut down at the moment.  all roads closed from freezing rain / accidents and now snow coming on top.  Check out their storm reports if have a chance

NgSIjF.jpg

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shemATC

shemATC

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Don't know what is going on with channel 10 conservative snow calls this season, Glenn has my snow over by 10:30am Thursday. Consensus model time frames has it snowing through mid afternoon.

 

Even the GFS, which hasn't exactly been the most robust westward model, has it snowing through 1pm for the entire area, S and E go a bit longer than N and W.

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JTA66

JTA66

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Don't know what is going on with channel 10 conservative snow calls this season, Glenn has my snow over by 10:30am Thursday. Consensus model time frames has it snowing through mid afternoon.

 

Glenn's not chief met any longer, he probably needs Tammy's permission to change a forecast. btw...I watched her the other night and she mentioned the possibility of rain for tomorrow. Hope she meant along the immediate coast IF the storm came WAY west.

 

Back on topic ... nice little jog west by the UKMET. Dr. No tends to follow -- we'll see.

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KamuSnow

KamuSnow

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Don't know what is going on with channel 10 conservative snow calls this season, Glenn has my snow over by 10:30am Thursday. Consensus model time frames has it snowing through mid afternoon.

 

Looking at the different runs earlier it seemed like the start time (at PHL more or less) ranged from roughly midnight to 2 or 3 am (depending on virga of course) and lasting until noon to 5 pm. Early start and late finish would be nice of course :snowing:

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted

This is not going to be a slow mover. I think it actually has a solid chance of arriving sooner but leaving sooner as well. This pattern is not conducive at all to a slow crawler up the coast but to get a storm of this magnitude with no blocking is remarkable in itself. This will be a fast but hard hitter. Rates of 1-2" a hour at the height of the storm is very likely. These short intense storms are always fun.

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

No doubt the cutoff for us N and W folks will be significant. This reminds me of the 12/30/2000 - when Philly received 9" of snow and NW Chesco only 1.5" and that was from some wrap around late. I woke up that day and it was Partly Sunny while on channel 6 in Philly it was Heavy Snow

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted

WWA up inland a tier.  


Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1223 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...High Impact Storm including the aftermath of wind driven
record cold on its way to our area...

...A rapidly intensifying ocean storm will produce significant
snowfall and strong winds tonight through Thursday...

DEZ001-NJZ012-015-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-040530-
/O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.180104T0200Z-180105T0000Z/
New Castle-Middlesex-Mercer-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester-
Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, New Brunswick, Trenton,
Media, Philadelphia, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown,
Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown
1223 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on slippery road
  conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. In
  addition, areas of poor visibility are expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected with locally higher
  amounts possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northern New Jersey, southeast
  Pennsylvania and northern Delaware.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow. Scattered power outages
  could develop Thursday and Friday which would force considerable
  hardship where heat would not be available.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause primarily travel
difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited
visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

$$

Mt. Holly updated map -

nws-mtholly-snowmap-01032018-1154am.png

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Bluescat1

Bluescat1

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

No doubt the cutoff for us N and W folks will be significant. This reminds me of the 12/30/2000 - when Philly received 9" of snow and NW Chesco only 1.5" and that was from some wrap around late. I woke up that day and it was Partly Sunny while on channel 6 in Philly it was Heavy Snow

You guys always do better when we have marginal temperature storms.

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted

I think if the 18z NAM and RGEM hold, these number increase again in the late afternoon update. I expect areas currently under a WWA to be changed to a WSW besides NE Maryland and possibly chester county and the areas with a HWO currently will get a WWA. 12z guidance has been fairly consistent giving 4-7" with lollis of 8" in the WWA areas. Honestly, their current "1 in 10 chances" map, may end up being the most correct imo 

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shemATC

shemATC

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I think if the 18z NAM and RGEM hold, these number increase again in the late afternoon update. I expect areas currently under a WWA to be changed to a WSW besides NE Maryland and possibly chester county and the areas with a HWO currently will get a WWA. 12z guidance has been fairly consistent giving 4-7" with lollis of 8" in the WWA areas. Honestly, their current "1 in 10 chances" map, may end up being the most correct imo 

But even with all that, always works out there is a screw zone (most likely from subsidence) and I'm betting money it's over my house (as usual).

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted
Just now, shemATC said:

But even with all that, always works out there is a screw zone (most likely from subsidence) and I'm betting money it's over my house (as usual).

Yeah the lower bucks snow hole that develops during every nor'easter. It's a crazy phenomenon and has occurred in so many storms that there has to be something to it. We have done pretty well this year though and have had the highest totals in the areas in a few events now. Maybe this year is where our luck will change. With the storm not hugging the coast, maybe the big deform band that typically crushes upper bucks and LV will be over us... The subsidence zone is something to keep an eye on though definitely...there will be a screw zone from that with such an intense system.

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RedSky

RedSky

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Yeah the lower bucks snow hole that develops during every nor'easter. It's a crazy phenomenon and has occurred in so many storms that there has to be something to it. We have done pretty well this year though and have had the highest totals in the areas in a few events now. Maybe this year is where our luck will change. With the storm not hugging the coast, maybe the big deform band that typically crushes upper bucks and LV will be over us... The subsidence zone is something to keep an eye on though definitely...there will be a screw zone from that with such an intense system.

umm i wish! more often then not that band sets up S&E of me this year of course it happened N&W

 

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted

I also think it's very possible that coastal NJ is upgraded to a blizzard warning later on as well. I think it is fairly likely that they reach blizzard criteria. Unsure whether they will see 35 sustained, but there will definitely be frequent gusts well past that. The peak of the wind though arrives after the snow is done. The snow will likely drift like crazy tomorrow night. Roads could be in awful shape still on friday due to the blowing/drifting factor.

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jwilson

jwilson

Posted
Posted

I remember the NAM led the way on the January 2016 storm.  GFS and Euro basically kept snow out of my area, very limited amounts, but the NAM consistently (from 60 hours out or so) had higher amounts into my area.  It overdid the totals at times, but it was definitely more correct on placement.  For complex systems, I'd have to imagine the higher-res models have a better grasp on certain things.  Still, I see this one going either way.  We're going to get a very sharp western edge of precip somewhere.  The question always becomes where and for how long?

Also, as is true-to-form in Miller B's - even though this is sort of a weird hybrid - banding will cause highly variable accumulations.  I'm not sure if there will be mixing down the sure, but I would never rule it out.

Latest HRRR shows the low quite far offshore, but it also shows a fairly expansive precip shield with snow being thrown back to nearly Harrisburg.  Also shows a dryslot as the storm begins to crank, which isn't surprising.

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Blizzard-on-GFS

Blizzard-on-GFS

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I also think it's very possible that coastal NJ is upgraded to a blizzard warning later on as well. I think it is fairly likely that they reach blizzard criteria. Unsure whether they will see 35 sustained, but there will definitely be frequent gusts well past that. The peak of the wind though arrives after the snow is done. The snow will likely drift like crazy tomorrow night. Roads could be in awful shape still on friday due to the blowing/drifting factor.

I agree Cape May to LBI should get Blizzard warnings for 8-14”.

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, jwilson said:

I remember the NAM led the way on the January 2016 storm.  GFS and Euro basically kept snow out of my area, very limited amounts, but the NAM consistently (from 60 hours out or so) had higher amounts into my area.  It overdid the totals at times, but it was definitely more correct on placement.  For complex systems, I'd have to imagine the higher-res models have a better grasp on certain things.  Still, I see this one going either way.  We're going to get a very sharp western edge of precip somewhere.  The question always becomes where and for how long?

Also, as is true-to-form in Miller B's - even though this is sort of a weird hybrid - banding will cause highly variable accumulations.  I'm not sure if there will be mixing down the sure, but I would never rule it out.

Latest HRRR shows the low quite far offshore, but it also shows a fairly expansive precip shield with snow being thrown back to nearly Harrisburg.  Also shows a dryslot as the storm begins to crank, which isn't surprising.

I think the latest HRRR looks completely wrong on the low placement. Look at hour 4...based on it's own simulated radar the low should be much further west than it is indicating and the expansive precip shield I think shows that. Honestly though, the HRRR is just not usually that good even as a nowcasting tool. This winter it has been wildly inconsistent especially at the end of it's range like it is currently. Also the HRRR doesn't show a dryslot, it looks to me it is just dry air fighting off the advance of the moisture to start. You see that at hour 18 it immediately is all filled in as the atmosphere moistens. 

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jwilson

jwilson

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I think the latest HRRR looks completely wrong on the low placement. Look at hour 4...based on it's own simulated radar the low should be much further west than it is indicating and the expansive precip shield I think shows that. Honestly though, the HRRR is just not usually that good even as a nowcasting tool. This winter it has been wildly inconsistent especially at the end of it's range like it is currently. Also the HRRR doesn't show a dryslot, it looks to me it is just dry air fighting off the advance of the moisture to start. You see that at hour 18 it immediately is all filled in as the atmosphere moistens. 

Fair enough.  I don't follow the HRRR that much, just wanted to look at the short-term models.  The WRFs look bad for this area, minus the ARW2 which is a mixed bag, but likewise, I don't follow them much and have no idea on verification rates as so forth.

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

Latest Wxsim for NW Chesco with 12z data bumps up accums to 4" to 6" - of interest also shows an ice storm threat Monday night into Tuesday

WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at  1:00 PM Jan 3, 2018
 _______________________________________________________________________________
 
 This afternoon: Partly cloudy. High 27. Wind southeast around 2 mph.
 
 Tonight: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after
 midnight. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after
 midnight. Low 15. Wind chill ranging from 5 to 19. Wind east-northeast around 2
 mph in the evening, becoming north around 7 mph after midnight. Chance of
 precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a
 quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches.
 
 Thursday: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in
 the afternoon. High 20. Wind chill around 3. Wind north around 14 mph, gusting
 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches.

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