anthonyweather Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I figured maybe we should start a thread that keep things a bit more tidy and organized. A Pretty fluid storm with A lot of moving parts. Thread the needle you'd say. GFS is "Dr. No" and it continues staying put just offshore, however the 0z euro brought light accumulations into SEPA, and the latest CMC brings double digit accumulations into most of the CWA. Rgem, GGEM, and JMA are now hits. NAM has good things going for it. Ultimately comes down to the arctic jet kicking the storm east from delmarva which the GFS depicts. Not much lead time up to the storm could make this very tricky for media outlets and public awareness. Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 UK is still east. So we have all short terms/CMC/Euro vs GFS AND UK Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 UkSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 12z NAV slightly NW of 6zSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The further east this goes the colder it will be after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: 12z NAV slightly NW of 6z Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk That is windy, burrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Reading HM's tweets on the other site, sounds like we want to root against the phase at this point and allow the southern energy to come as far north as possible. Paging Dr. No... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 RPM Anyone? Through Hour 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 23 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Reading HM's tweets on the other site, sounds like we want to root against the phase at this point and allow the southern energy to come as far north as possible. Paging Dr. No... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 We got what we wanted Dr No OP moved 100 miles west to the western side of the EPS ensembles yet the precipitaion field western side shrunk considerably lol, gotta love this hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: We got what we wanted Dr No OP moved 100 miles west to the western side of the EPS ensembles yet the precipitaion field western side shrunk considerably lol, gotta love this hobby H5 improved fairly dramatically from the 0z run. Might have to wait for surface to respond in 2 or 3 runs but I like where we are heading. It looks like another Meso vs Global battle again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 35 minutes ago, RedSky said: We got what we wanted Dr No OP moved 100 miles west to the western side of the EPS ensembles yet the precipitaion field western side shrunk considerably lol, gotta love this hobby Go figure...barely in the 1" snowfall on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 EPS mean has the low over the benchmark yet the qpf mean is like the OP, don't know what is going on with this thing. Maybe the Canadian has the better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 who cares about snow, when it's so cold as is. Highs around 0 on Friday, if were lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Been at work all day, havent really seen any of the models except the 18z NAM so far. WOW! Beautiful trend on the 3k and exactly the resolution I was talking about as we get within the hi res guidance range. Just a note, I wouldnt take surface maps verbatim until maybe 18z tomorrow. The global ops and the lower res guidance is struggling still. 500mb on the NAM has again made significant improvements since 0z last night. Loving the closed h5 low showing up in SC trying to pull the storm nearer the coast and N. Posting the 3k surface ONLY because it has the best reflection of my theory that lp will try and ride the baroclinic boundary/coastal convergence front along or just off the coast. Really nice trends today and I expect the higher resolution stuff to keep on keeping on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 CRAS is decent at picking up mesoscale features and actually has been consistent picking up the baroclinic zone along the coast and riding it. Picked up the Boxing Day storm and is trying its hardest to be the leader for this one too. This is likely overdone but will post these just for another example of great looking 500mb trends and the farther west baroclinic track example. This is pure weather porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Honestly the best part of this upcoming storm is that every east coast subforum has a thread on it. It's a wide reaching storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Gfs looks east. Im really starting to believe this is not going to happen unfortunately yes the nam looks good an the sref. But lets be honest they suck. Hopefully im wrong but not having a good feeling edit. Ok actually it maybe the same or slightly west. But at surface looks awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Gfs looks east. Im really starting to believe this is not going to happen unfortunately yes the nam looks good an the sref. But lets be honest they suck. Hopefully im wrong but not having a good feeling edit. Ok actually it maybe the same or slightly west. But at surface looks awful Are we looking at the same system? 500mb features took another step towards an improved look. The surface low now forms right along the immediate coast and baroclinic coastal front which is new and a very notable improvement. Of course being the global with lower resolution it completely loses that feature and jumps the low over to the convection East of there. For a while I was thinking maybe the gfs had a handle on the single lp farthest East track but this run just made me strongly reconsider and I am leaning even more towards that lp along the coast being a player (if not the main show) much longer. Now that the gfs is seeing this coastal front convergence area it is a whole new ballgame imo whether the gfs op goes that way or not next few runs. 500mb trends and this feature were enough to make me think the gfs is starting to see the light but might still take several more runs before it really sticks to this idea fully. A blend of the NAM and GFS thru about 48 hours actually makes sense. Where this low goes and how it tracks is the bigger question imo. GFS jumps it East fairly quickly, NAM holds on quite a bit longer before jumping the center to the convection well East. I think the higher res NAM has actually had the best handle on this feature. The focus is going to start shifting to this more Western lp or weakness next few runs and we will see some varying solutions thereafter. Minor changes aloft with this can yield massive changes at the surface thus why we are seeing so much uncertainty. Interest level up to a 7.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Here was the 18z RGEM. Cut back a little from 12z but not too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 43 minutes ago, Stormman96 said: Gfs looks east. Im really starting to believe this is not going to happen unfortunately yes the nam looks good an the sref. But lets be honest they suck. Hopefully im wrong but not having a good feeling edit. Ok actually it maybe the same or slightly west. But at surface looks awful 500 maps are more important at this time. Lower dynamics will follow. Trends are good in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Had a chance to look over majority of current guidance. We are really close to closing in on a track from just off the GA/SC coast to near or just East of Cape Hatteras thru about 72 hours. Very strong signal for a track close to that an no I am not using the models verbatim but applying atmospheric science and physics to what they are hinting at and using their known biases for clues. After the lp hits the Hatteras vicinity the track gets muddled. Some guidance is suggesting a jump East to a blob of convection related to a weakening piece of UL vorticity. This may be convective feedback. I know people hate that term but this is one case with all the dynamics happening where it is legit and the global models are generally falling victim to this error. There is another signal that the intensifying low occludes when the final piece of energy enters the trof. Timing of these features as well as open or closed 500mb circulation is going to play a critical role in whether occlusion is real and if the lp can continue tracking N. Lastly there are a few weak signals that the final piece of energy closes off the 500mb low over the mid atlantic generally speaking and tugs the low right close to the coast on a NW heading. There are many unanswered questions and so many fine details aloft that can make huge differences at the surface. I could actually see guidance diverge a little over the next 18-24 hours.....I would not be surprised at all. I like where we sit right now. Btw, sref's are an eye opener: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I never expected this to come back from two days ago so i'm sitting in a can't lose situation, we lose so many storms in the last three days would be nice to get one of them back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I never expected this to come back from two days ago so i'm sitting in a can't lose situation, we lose so many storms in the last three days would be nice to get one of them back. I'm still on the sideline but warming up my leg with practice kicks. Might take a shot at the uprights tomorrow at some point if things continue to look promising and we get into field goal range. We're at about what would be a 60 yarder right now but my personal best is 50 so have a few more baby steps to get this old man's leg into range. Hey Red, that dumbfounded Lucy is still on the injured list right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 2 hours ago, RedSky said: I never expected this to come back from two days ago so i'm sitting in a can't lose situation, we lose so many storms in the last three days would be nice to get one of them back. I'm still on the sideline but warming up my leg with practice kicks. Might take a shot at the uprights tomorrow at some point if things continue to look promising and we get into field goal range. We're at about what would be a 60 yarder right now but my personal best is 50 so have a few more baby steps to get this old man's leg into range. Hey Red, that dumbfounded Lucy is still on the injured list right? Coach got Lucy on the bench, called up from the practice squad some guy picked up before the trade deadline from the Browns called SREF will hold for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 From my perspective I will always prefer a classic Miller A classification like this storm. Can it miss to the east....for sure. However, if I was living east of I95 and toward the Jersey Shore I would feel really positive about this delivering at significant 6" plus storm for Ocean/Atlantic and Cape May Counties in NJ. Further inland I would not expect a significant storm west of the PHL metro area...like where I live in NW Chesco. Every mile east of the Delaware river will increase snowfall totals. However, keep in mind with such a deep storm of the Miller A variety there is always an opportunity for NW shifts as we get closer to verification. All in all for winter weather lovers a tremendous start to the 2017-18 winter season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 21z Sref: .8" QPF PHL .4" QPF ABEdown by about .2" overall from 15z. Believe it to be a weaker low, not eastern shift. But exact same numbers from SREFs at this stage arent importantSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I believe the intensity of the low will actually affect how far west it gets pulled. It is showing up really strong on all the models, so i pray that i get a big snowstorm. Now i lay myself to sleep. I pray the lord lays snow down deep. Please give me a snow day before i wake. So i can have big snowmen to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 21z Sref: .8" QPF PHL .4" QPF ABEdown by about .2" overall from 15z. Believe it to be a weaker low, not eastern shift. But exact same numbers from SREFs at this stage arent importantSent from my LG-H871 using TapatalkIronically the lp area ticked West on the sref surface maps and there is still a considerable lean/uncertainty on the Western side of the lp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12k nam is much slower with the phase and allows lead sw to tug trof a bit east. Subsequently the lp also went East this run and dry air takes over on the West side. Not the best start to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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