Paleocene Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Counterpoint... (though he's focused on PHL and NYC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 We need the GFS to cave and then one more trend west tonight from the other globals and I think you could be looking at a 2-4 type storm for DC/Baltimore with more east 95. If the trend stops or we start trending east tonight then I would be very suspect of getting anything west of the bay. However, there is no denying that pretty much everything has trended west except for the GFS over the last 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Such an oddball storm. Not scoring any points for being on the NJ coast, Long Island, NYC, or NE. So really being "east" isn't enough, you have to be south and east. Seems like a very complex setup and I think it will be quite awhile before a final solution becomes apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Bob, did the NS kick the storm out again? The track up by the NE did shift west. Not by much but it was a shift. Their issue is the low center is still too far east and the northern stream still messes up the dynamics on the western side. Overall the only difference to the NE was a slight shift west in track but the upper levels inhibit the western side. Ultimately, the entire coast is rooting for the same thing. Tuck the low closer to the coast. It's that simple (especially in our area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I would imagine that just small shifts west by the GEPS leading up to game time (if it's correct) would give us quite the snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The track up by the NE did shift west. Not by much but it was a shift. Their issue is the low center is still too far east and the northern stream still messes up the dynamics on the western side. Overall the only difference to the NE was a slight shift west in track but the upper levels inhibit the western side. Ultimately, the entire coast is rooting for the same thing. Tuck the low closer to the coast. It's that simple (especially in our area). We have a tough set up, but honestly we could get more than NYC maybe ( that would be ironic ) with the progression of the upper air feature . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Last 3 runs of the GEPS. 12z is very encouraging. Just need to hope it's not a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Counterpoint... (though he's focused on PHL and NYC) He did mention that we should root for a slower northern stream and stronger southern system that stays separate long enough. Here's to hoping the trends continue and we get Nam'd in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 That cluster on the west side of the GEPS is close to a money track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Not sure if posted but Geps looks real nice and west Wow, I really like seeing the western flank of those lows and its skewing the mean to the west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Not sure if posted but Geps looks real nice and west It's so frustrating the whole upper level pattern isn't a few hundred miles further west. What a huge east cost hit this could be. Very small in the grand scenes of things but yet so far away...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: That cluster on the west side of the GEPS is close to a money track And very few east outliers eta: ninja’d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 42 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I asked this only because I find you to be so knowledgeable and so I really like to hear what you have to say. It's nothing to do with keeping score to see who is right or wrong or whatever. More like trying to validate my feelings of still being in on it and whether I'm off base and just wishcasting. I had no problem with you asking and I didn't take it the wrong way. Not sure why it bothered Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Last 3 runs of the GEPS. 12z is very encouraging. Just need to hope it's not a blip. Man, I love the weather! Even if we end up with .5", i'd be happy. This thing was literally brought back from being east of Bermuda! Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Geps much better 500s then Gefs That is a very encouraging panel honestly. I've never really tracked the GEPS with verification but if you want to hug anything right now...that is the panel to take a nap with until 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knglover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Not sure if posted but Geps looks real nice and west 10 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: That cluster on the west side of the GEPS is close to a money track Speaking from a purely statistical approach; Wouldn't it be prudent to throw out the 5 or 6 most outlying members to gain a more accurate representation of the data? If that is correct and I am reading this right, wouldn't there then be more argument for the westerly members being the most numerous? Please excuse me if my noobishness is showing through. Trust me, I have a ton of other questions that I haven't wanted to bother anyone by asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Sucks we have to work tomorrow. I m used to happy hour really being happy hour. Let's make it count today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, knglover said: Speaking from a purely statistical approach; Wouldn't it be prudent to throw out the 5 or 6 most outlying members to gain a more accurate representation data? If that is correct and I am reading this right, wouldn't there then be more argument for the westerly members being the most numerous? Please excuse me if my noobishness is showing through. Trust me, I have a ton of other questions that I haven't wanted to bother anyone by asking. Since this is a fast moving, progressive, and dynamic setup it's best to follow trends as leads shorten. The GEPS picked up on the possibility something @ 12z that was absent at 0z. Look at the northern stream energy to the NW. Much slower. This keeps the "kicker effect" muted at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, knglover said: Speaking from a purely statistical approach; Wouldn't it be prudent to throw out the 5 or 6 most outlying members to gain a more accurate representation data? If that is correct and I am reading this right, wouldn't there then be more argument for the westerly members being the most numerous? Please excuse me if my noobishness is showing through. Trust me, I have a ton of other questions that I haven't wanted to bother anyone by asking. Yes, but if you look closely, it looks like there are 7 members pretty far west and then a bunch pretty far east and the combo gets you the mean low pressure center, which leads you to believe the low is likely to either be on the west side or east side and not where it's actually depicted. At least that's my understanding looking at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knglover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Since this is a fast moving, progressive, and dynamic setup it's best to follow trends as leads shorten. The GEPS picked up on the possibility something @ 12z that was absent at 0z. Thanks Bob! I am looking at this loop and my noob eyes tend to like what they are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Looking at the GEPS, I would like to see the same thing with the northern stream on the EPS. That's an important piece in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Based on verification scores, the GEPS at 72 hours has roughly as much skill as the GGEM. For some reason the GEPS have been performing relatively better in the long range, and the GEFS have been doing better in the short range. I suspect it's because the GEFS are more tightly clustered around the op, which is good in the short range, and the GEPS have a better spread, which pays off in the long range. 2 minutes ago, knglover said: Speaking from a purely statistical approach; Wouldn't it be prudent to throw out the 5 or 6 most outlying members to gain a more accurate representation data? If that is correct and I am reading this right, wouldn't there then be more argument for the westerly members being the most numerous? Please excuse me if my noobishness is showing through. Trust me, I have a ton of other questions that I haven't wanted to bother anyone by asking. I don't think so, especially with so few data points. The one caveat to the GEPS is that the individual members use different physical models, so they have different skill. This is arguably good from a statistical standpoint (less correlation among the members), but I don't know which of the members are most skillful. Let's say its the ones with the western tracks. Why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 EPS shifted the shield west. Trace line approaching HGR now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: EPS shifted the shield west. Trace line approaching HGR now. Have to like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I guess there is still a little time. Of course there is. It’s funny how those that we’re “out” now have half a piggy toe back in. No matter how good some are this is exactly why most of use spend countless hours chasing, because we all know that there are so many variables....and very few absolutes in this game. It’s part of the fun. Today’s runs (save GFS) and now 12z Euro proves my point (and I’m not saying it works out....I just know better than to to write anything close off at 4-5 days out. Am I surprised...sure, but we’ve seen things trend worse....and sometimes better over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just to recap: SREF's - Get the .25 through the cities. JMA - about .2 for the cities. EURO - .1 for the cities. GGEM - .15 for the cities. NAVGEM - get's precip into the cities. Not sure how much. GFS - Nada for the entire eastern shore pretty much. I'm really interested to see how the short range models deal with things as they start to come into range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Still the minority of course but a notable uptick in eps solutions that get the .1 qpf line into the I95 corridor. Around a quarter of them now and a couple that would actually be half decent. Not sure how much the EPS adds at this range but overall supportive of what the op put out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I'm supremely confident that we can pull this thing another 50-100 miles west if we just wish hard enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Of course there is. It’s funny how those that we’re “out” now have half a piggy toe back in. No matter how good some are this is exactly why most of use spend countless hours chasing, because we all know that there are so many variables....and very few absolutes in this game. It’s part of the fun. Today’s runs (save GFS) and now 12z Euro proves my point (and I’m not saying it works out....I just know better than to to write anything close off at 4-5 days out. Am I surprised...sure, but we’ve seen things trend worse....and sometimes better over the years. That would be me. And honestly, being out made it a lot easier. I might have to use this technique more often in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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