mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: So based off the 12z runs, Euro is like an inch just east of I95, UKIE is about 2 to 4 east of I95 near the Bay, and CMC is 2 to 3 I95 corridor and more east... That sound about right? Nope. You left out the 5 Kuchera inches from the Gem that falls imby. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The western edge of the precip did move about 25 miles west looking at 72 hour precip map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Wonderdog said: Can we assume that the situation is so fluid that more changes are in the offering? Sure we can. We are still in the game but for you and I to get 1 inch we need another tick West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: So based off the 12z runs, Euro is like an inch just east of I95, UKIE is about 2 to 4 east of I95 near the Bay, and CMC is 2 to 3 I95 corridor and more east... That sound about right? Size doesn't matter. It's all about placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Much of the eastern shore is .4+ qpf. Jackpot in the va portion of delmarva. Cambridge looks to be .45. I would guess 6"+ if the mid level winds dont destroy the pretty dendrites. Cape only needs to road trip to the end of his driveway. Ha I really wanted to take a trip this week anyway, but if I am gonna end up with more snow in my yard then I might just have to hang around. Nice thing is no decisions need to be made until the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Can we assume that the situation is so fluid that more changes are in the offering? 72 hours is more than enough time for this to get bigger or disappear completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I remember Jan 96 starting like this. 3 days out it was 2-4. 2 days out it was 6-12. Inside 24 hours it was 18-24. Different setups. But this thing is trending. Still lots of ways to fail as mentioned by bob and PSU. But will be damn fun to track regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Even though the track moved, it's still pretty far east and without a phase west of the bay still struggles. The shield is unusually far west of the low as it is. Especially without stream interaction. This isn't one of those cases where the low center shifts and the shield moves lock step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Was the phase on the EURO quicker this time around which led to the westward movement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Even gives my area a few tiny flakes. Nice trends today. 72 hours to go... Really only a 30-40 mile shift west from a decent advisory level event in DC proper and only 50-60 miles from a warning level snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Even though I won’t see a flake, this has been fun to track. Good to see the cold air won’t be wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, poolz1 said: At hour 66 the euro is almost 150+ miles west of 00z. If the precip shield would have bumped just as far there would be flakes at HGR. Pretty dramatic for the euro shift that much in short range. Euro must have read my post from yesterday. 20 hours ago, Amped said: Reminder: Offshore areas average a lot more precipitation than 75 miles inland. There's a meteorological reason for that. If you live on land, you need a LLJ to transport moisture inland, if you're a fish, you don't. This is why getting precip to trend 75miles inland will be a lot harder than getting it to skim the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 We need the precip mass to develop over georgia and Carolinas and move due North. These trends are decent but really just noise. For a modereate event you need the measurable to reach Hagerstown. I really don't like anything about this storm. I'll be rooting like heck though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 looking good for me on the chesapeake bay in virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Amped said: Euro must have read my post from yesterday. Missed that post....good info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 15 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Regardless of any snow, or no snow, those winds look awfully brisk. Could be a brutally cold day just with that it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Even though the track moved, it's still pretty far east and without a phase west of the bay still struggles. The shield is unusually far west of the low as it is. Especially without stream interaction. This isn't one of those cases where the low center shifts and the shield moves lock step. i don't like that we're not seeing much in the way of upper level energy involved on our side, so unless my analysis is off then i feel like we're relying almost entirely on the surface low which seems like a tall task. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 We basically need the next few runs of the Euro to jump west the same amount we just saw from 0z to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: can somebody post a euro snow map? This is the best I can do from free sites. You can play around with your own here. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro Tough run for areas north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: We basically need the next few runs of the Euro to jump west the same amount we just saw from 0z to 12z. Yes, although really just one would do the trick. If you look back at the precip maps from 12z on 12/30 the back edge of the precip has moved west about 100 miles. Of course larger changes are easier to come by at 144 than at 72 but we only need about one third or one half of that to score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, 87storms said: i don't like that we're not seeing much in the way of upper level energy involved on our side, so unless my analysis is off then i feel like we're relying almost entirely on the surface low which seems like a tall task. The good thing is all models are getting precip to i95 now except the gfs. One thing the gfs is always stingy with is precip to the w or nw of coastals. I suppose it's safe to say that the odds currently favor precip getting west of the bay now. Which in itself is something I didn't think would happen. Max potential along i95 is probably around .2 and that's a stretch but within the realm. We need to get into some runs that push the trace line to FDK.....or HGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: We basically need the next few runs of the Euro to jump west the same amount we just saw from 0z to 12z. If Happy hour GFS caves toward the Euro i think it could be that much closer to game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Didn’t see anyone mention, but the 12z GEPS jumped a noticeable amount west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The good thing is all models are getting precip to i95 now except the gfs. One thing the gfs is always stingy with is precip to the w or nw of coastals. I suppose it's safe to say that the odds currently favor precip getting west of the bay now. Which in itself is something I didn't think would happen. Max potential along i95 is probably around .2 and that's a stretch but within the realm. We need to get into some runs that push the trace line to FDK.....or HGR Bob, did the NS kick the storm out again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Didn’t see anyone mention, but the 12z GEPS jumped a noticeable amount west. Can we still use the GEFS at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Can we still use the GEFS at this range? This isn’t the GEFS, it’s the Canadian Ensemble. FWIW, Cranky is still using them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This should answer a lot of questions. Not too shabby compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 29 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: If you loop the last 4 12z runs the west trend is pretty significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I like where this is going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: That's a fairly large 72 hour shift. Too bad the storm isn't 6 days away instead of 3. Times running out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.