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Jan 4th Coastal


showmethesnow

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

If you wish to accept it, CMC snow totals with Kuchera is 2 to 3 inches in DC 

You don't even need to ask if we accept. We all did and are just waiting for something better...and tossing anything worse due to convective feedback issues and known and made up model biases. 

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problem is it's so far east to begin with, so we need this to keep trending up until gametime most likely.  still gotta wonder how much of that western edge dries up, so to be on the safe side, i'd like to see that precip contour nudge west further to the blue ridge.

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I think cause it consolidated from the double barrel look, and now the main low is approx where the left double barrel low was (from 12z yesterday).

Yeah, the main low looks like it shifted east from where the 2nd low was yesterday at 12z, but it makes up for it by being stronger.

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3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

At hour 66 the euro is almost 150+ miles west of 00z.  If the precip shield would have bumped just as far there would be flakes at HGR.  Pretty dramatic for the euro shift that much in short range. 

Can we assume that the situation is so fluid that more changes are in the offering?

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I've just been giving my thoughts. Others kept asking "are you out" so I answered and went with it. I guess people like to keep score and compartmentalise.  I'm just rolling with it. You can call it whatever you want. But the bottom line is I've been pessimistic this can become a significant snow for 95 and west. Im rooting for my forecast to fail miserably. I was way off on my thoughts this past week. Hopefully I am just as wrong now. 

I asked this only because I find you to be so knowledgeable and so I really like to hear what you have to say. It's nothing to do with keeping score to see who is right or wrong or whatever. More like trying to validate my feelings of still being in on it and whether I'm off base and just wishcasting.

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