Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's never really looked good since the euro close off run. It's sucked me back in enough to be planning a trip to Cambridge thurs. If the 95 corridor backs in to an event I'll be shocked. Pleasantly shocked of course but shocked nonetheless. You better leave Wed. (just in case) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie not as bad as some thought. I would expect a little more qpf after 72 hours too. Need to wait for other maps to confirm that however. Its entirely possible its going to go due east after 72. I'm not sure. The UKMET hung on more to the double barrelled idea at 12Z than most other guidance did which I felt was trying to pull away from that idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 DT is getting nervous on Twitter. He maybe changing his tune. Says models are now showing the one thing that could possibly pull the storm closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's never really looked good since the euro close off run. It's sucked me back in enough to be planning a trip to Cambridge thurs. If the 95 corridor backs in to an event I'll be shocked. Pleasantly shocked of course but shocked nonetheless. With the GGEM and Ukie onboard for at least a light event along I95 and the NAM 500mb look within it's not-totally-crazy range, I'm less so far out then I was before. If the Euro keeps that measurable precip line west of me and backs it up a bit more, I might be mildly interested. I think there's no virtually no way we get a WSW level storm out of this, but maybe we can get something measurable I suppose. I'm still skeptical and even if this does happen, there's going to be a brutal gradient across the sub-forum. Best to keep expectations low unless you live near the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Right next to ACK is where I would set up for this storm. 03040G55KT 1/2SM +RA VV001 then 34050G70KT SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie not as bad as some thought. I would expect a little more qpf after 72 hours too. Need to wait for other maps to confirm that however. Meteogram through hour 72 at DCA has 3 or 4mm of snow... 2m temps of -5C and 850 temp of -9 Fwiw it's about .15" QPF for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its entirely possible its going to go due east after 72. I'm not sure. The UKMET hung on more to the double barrelled idea at 12Z than most other guidance did which I felt was trying to pull away from that idea I look at this a little differently. According to the screen on my phone, I'm only a 1/16" to an 1/8" away from a big deal. That's doable using my criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Check out the navgem, guys. Throws precip much farther west than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 No large scale pattern shifts in 3-4 days, so a trend to the coast would be a shortwave trend. Winter storms track up the coast vs so far out to sea. For that to happen, the low would become stronger than models are showing. Just that raw potential unrealized is enough keep the storm out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Meteogram through he 72 at DCA has 3 or 4mm of snow... 2m temps of -5c Hey, I've got to be closer to 5mm I would guess. That's pretty good. 2", maybe 3" with luck and help from ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: Hey, I've got to be closer to 5mm I would guess. That's pretty good. 2", maybe 3" with luck and help from ratios. I edited my post after you quoted me by the way... about .15 QPF at DCA through 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Meteogram through hour 72 at DCA has 3 or 4mm of snow... 2m temps of -5C and 850 temp of -9 Fwiw it's about .15" QPF for DCA 0.15 that sticks to everything followed by arctic blast and winds would a yuuuuuuge win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Hey, I've got to be closer to 5mm I would guess. That's pretty good. 2", maybe 3" with luck and help from ratios. Maps from other site say I only get .1". A small improvement over last night so trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 AO set to begin dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Ukie does screw NE for the most part. It's strange how it has crept north fron NC the inland precip and then hangs a hard right at our latitude. If that creep can continue, it would give a moderate event around I95. Hopefully, the Euro will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 We need that kicker to back offSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Ukie does screw NE for the most part. It's strange how it has crept north fron NC the inland precip and then hanhs a hard right at our latitude. If that creep can continue, it would give a moderate event around I95. Hopefully, the Euro will. It's a weird distribution but the storm track is well off the coast and east of the benchmark. Seems like models are converging on the idea that the NS low screws up the dynamics on the western side up north of us. Euro definitely showed that last night. Our area (especially east) may be able to take advantage of the broad shield before it interacts with the ns shortwave/low traversing the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Prettiest UKIE map I can find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: We need that kicker to back off Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Apparently it has been ever so slowly. Hey, we need the Ravens defense....they'll stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's a weird distribution but the storm track is well off the coast and east of the benchmark. Seems like models are converging on the idea that the NS low screws up the dynamics on the western side up north of us. Euro definitely showed that last night. Our area (especially east) may be able to take advantage of the broad shield before it interacts with the ns shortwave/low traversing the NE. Right...what I said! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 29 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie not as bad as some thought. I would expect a little more qpf after 72 hours too. Need to wait for other maps to confirm that however. 25 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its entirely possible its going to go due east after 72. I'm not sure. The UKMET hung on more to the double barrelled idea at 12Z than most other guidance did which I felt was trying to pull away from that idea It did which is why the initial slp map was deceiving. Not sure the trend is away. The ggem had that too. If it's not double barreled we're in trouble unless the real low ends up being the one tucked in. I doubt that given where the initial low starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 SREF for the win! Has accumulations back to me. In Purcellville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Where's Cobalt?. We need him to bring this storm up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Where's Cobalt?. We need him to bring this storm up the coastHe joined the Boston forumSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It did which is why the initial slp map was deceiving. Not sure the trend is away. The ggem had that too. If it's not double barreled we're in trouble unless the real low ends up being the one tucked in. I doubt that given where the initial low starts. It did drop a little more after 72, but not what we're hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: You're really trying to get me to DE. If I go there and they get screwed I'm reaping your soul. If not, maybe I'll buy you a beer I'm back to work this week but will take a day off for a trip to snowtown and good Dogfish beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 If you wish to accept it, CMC snow totals with Kuchera is 2 to 3 inches in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The king has entered to building. Quick someone amuse him so he is jolly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, yoda said: If you wish to accept it, CMC snow totals with Kuchera is 2 to 3 inches in DC Mby? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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