SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: dont think we like the UK, looks pretty far out to sea at 72 but tough to tell on these maps. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=60&carte=1021 Its about 100 miles or east of the CMC and east of its run last night. It has been jumping around a bunch though. The CMC scary as it is has probably been the most consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I am loving this because I am off this week and was planning on heading out to Canaan to play in the snow. This is exactly the same situation as Jan last year, when I was planning the same trip and changed my plans and went to Rehoboth instead. Maybe Deja vu! Gfs gives me an inch -the cmc 20 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its about 100 miles or east of the CMC and east of its run last night. It has been jumping around a bunch though. The CMC scary as it is has probably been the most consistent Dunno about consistent but I like what its been doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: That would yield a weaker storm without the NS feeding in. But if it’s our only shot I’m on board ;-). Yea I don't care if the storm is 950 or 980 I just want snow. I think the initial vort that phases in over the southeast with the stj wave (showme labeled it B ) is initially a northern stream vort but it becomes disconnected from the flow somewhat. It's then phasing with the next northern stream system diving down but that's happening right on top of us and kicking it OTS. The snowy runs a few days ago were diving that in to our west. I'm not sure that's really an option anymore. Now we might be better off if that trended north just enough to allow this to come up more before any phase or push east happens. Don't really see that either just speculating. It's so darn close on the 3k nam and ggem now though. (Ugh don't do it don't do it, stay strong) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its about 100 miles or east of the CMC and east of its run last night. It has been jumping around a bunch though. The CMC scary as it is has probably been the most consistent Does persistence and model accuracy have anything in common with the CMC at this range. Would love to think so, but I am not familiar with its scores in terms of verification. As a weenie I would love to se it come true. I also feel the SSTs will play a role in a more Westard track but I agree, and I am torn as well, with a sling shoot way East once the storm gets to a lattitide of OC. MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 "Whichever model brings the most snow totals to my back yard is the best." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: You'd take 9" in Rehoboth over 18" in OCMD? lol snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It’s too bad I have to work end of week. I’d make a visit to my parents again in a heart beat lol . This has the look of a cool arse storm. Take a few days off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Not having the GFS is a big blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: We're relying on the Canadian of all models to give snow so today we're all Oscar Meyer Weenies I can tell you this much. It was the only model that never waivered on the SE snow event back on 12/8 from 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Are the GEFS still useful at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I can tell you this much. It was the only model that never waivered on the SE snow event back on 12/8 from 4 days out. Wow, thats amazing !! Sometimes a certain model can latch on and fine the needle in the weather haystack :-) must be a physics thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Are the GEFS still useful at this range? Yes, it will give you some idea if there is a lot of short range spread. Gefs likes to move like a pack at shorter ranges and I'm not a fan of that but if the 12z run shows a decent amount of spread then it keeps you guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: We're relying on the Canadian of all models to give snow so today we're all Oscar Meyer Weenies BTW- thats a 19 on the DE coast...goes to 20 on the next panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: BTW- thats a 19 on the DE coast...goes to 20 on the next panel Yeah... CMC is totally accurate because it gives the most snow to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its about 100 miles or east of the CMC and east of its run last night. It has been jumping around a bunch though. The CMC scary as it is has probably been the most consistent I think the GFS has been most consistent. The CMC and Euro had been trending west. My guess is that we get something in between what the CMC and GFS are showing, which would be similar to what the Euro is showing. 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Are the GEFS still useful at this range? Yes. They've been out-verifying the op up to within about 48 hours from the event. Their output lacks the op's resolution, but we're not at the point yet where that's much of a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: We're relying on the Canadian of all models to give snow so today we're all Oscar Meyer Weenies Hebrew National Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I think the euro will be telling. If it doesn’t budge again I think we can probably start taking it seriously. If it ticks west than Virginia Beach might start thinking 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 What day is this storm again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Wed night into Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: What day is this storm again? Either Thursday or Noday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Either Thursday or Noday. youve invested the least into this storm. Your a wise old man lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I feel the OTS storms are the worst ones to swallow in this area. It takes so much to get everything just right here. Clippers missing north—meh. Rain/snow-meh—comes with the territory. But when you have the arctic cold which is a flat rarity—(we could be in the old 39 high/25 night temps.) and you have a monster just off the coast—which in and of itself is hard to get (double b Lows). It’s just a very tough thing to watch for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 48 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its about 100 miles or east of the CMC and east of its run last night. It has been jumping around a bunch though. The CMC scary as it is has probably been the most consistent The GFS has been consist too. It is just not what anyone wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: The GFS has been consist too. It is just not what anyone wants. Its been making pretty major changes at the upper levels the last 2-3 runs...its just not really reflecting at all at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: The GFS has been consist too. It is just not what anyone wants. By 0z tonight my guess is we see a cave one way or the other. But the way this winter has been going it will probably still be a grab bag of solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its been making pretty major changes at the upper levels the last 2-3 runs...its just not really reflecting at all at the surface Is the GFS bias to being not far enough north and west true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Wonderdog said: Is the GFS bias to being not far enough north and west true? In general yes. It very infrequently forecasts significant east coast storms well beyond 48-60 hours. I would say 80% of the time it is too far south and east and we even see notably progressive models sometimes tracking inside the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Ukie not as bad as some thought. I would expect a little more qpf after 72 hours too. Need to wait for other maps to confirm that however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ji said: youve invested the least into this storm. Your a wise old man lol It's never really looked good since the euro close off run. It's sucked me back in enough to be planning a trip to Cambridge thurs. If the 95 corridor backs in to an event I'll be shocked. Pleasantly shocked of course but shocked nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.