BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS looks to me very similar to 6z. Offshore track. Will track it to the end but it would take massive shifts and we don’t have time for that. But I can be happy for the coastal crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 12z hour 72 closer to coast than 6z hour 78. Ticked West or maybe precip shield expanded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 12z CMC gets snow back to just west of I95... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: If we can maintain this H5 presentation, this has Beach mauler written all over it. I’m still thinking this is an Eastern shore deal. We really need to see that last piece dive in from OH Valley or we’ll be left with passing flurries while OCMD uses Beach shovels to get out of their foot of wind swept powder. Fun fact: OCMD has 2 plows on the barrier island. TWO!! Learned that when I went down there for a storm years ago. Father in Millville, DE said last years January storm had 1 plow make a run at Rt 26 the whole storm. Might need some extra help if this comes to fruition. . This to me looks an awful lot like January 1989 (think it was like January 4th or 7th). PHL was supposed to get like 3-6" and just south and east 4-8" and coast 5-10". Reality PHL got flurries then sun, south and east got 1-3", and Wildwood NJ got 26" with 5 foot snow drifts and 45 mph winds on the boardwalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I think we need it to slow down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, wasnow215 said: 12z hour 72 closer to coast than 6z hour 78. Ticked West or maybe precip shield expanded. Pretty much noise. We saw very little change at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Is it unusual for there to be this much disagreement between models within 72-hours of what looks to be a pretty monstrous system? Unfortunately no. We do this a lot. And every time we say "it's unbelievable how far apart they are". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I feel the pain with everyone on this storm. It’s a tough case to handle, but I have to side with PSU and Wes on this one. The SS vort is quite vigorous but we just don’t have what it takes from the NS and the orientation of the trough is just going sweep the storm out and cut off the western shield of the precipitation. I think it’s pretty clear the two streams will not phase in time and the more correct the SS is simulated west and neg tilt, the harder the turn OTS will be once the NS comes in. It’s a punch to the gut to watch this. It’s torture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Is it unusual for there to be this much disagreement between models within 72-hours of what looks to be a pretty monstrous system? When thre is no block it is not that unusual and having the GFS farther east happens more often than not if there isw a difference. At least that used to be the case. Not so sure anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 According to the SNE forum, this is the extended RGEM... they say change the hours from 48 to 84 and you get this map... too bad it's overdone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: I think we need it to slow down a bit. And it needs to phase clean sooner like the 3K seemed to indicate. But hey we are tracking so what the heck. Nothing else to do today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Ggem was oh so close. It has that weakness to the NW instead of a full double barrel low. We really need that to become the focal point not the initial low. That's complicated so perhaps leaves the door open to the models messing that up. The gfs wants no part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: If we can maintain this H5 presentation, this has Beach mauler written all over it. I’m still thinking this is an Eastern shore deal. We really need to see that last piece dive in from OH Valley or we’ll be left with passing flurries while OCMD uses Beach shovels to get out of their foot of wind swept powder. Fun fact: OCMD has 2 plows on the barrier island. TWO!! Learned that when I went down there for a storm years ago. Father in Millville, DE said last years January storm had 1 plow make a run at Rt 26 the whole storm. Might need some extra help if this comes to fruition. . CMC gets it done lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: CMC gets it done lol. Crushes South Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 So far from what we need... look at what the euro was doing with the northern stream when it looked good...and keep in mind even this barely clipped us with the western edge of the storm. Our western 1/3 still got nothing. Then compare it to the gfs now. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ggem was oh so close. It has that weakness to the NW instead of a full double barrel low. We really need that to become the focal point not the initial low. That's complicated so perhaps leaves the door open to the models messing that up. The gfs wants no part of it. There has been a clear westward shift on the GGEM and Euro in the last day or so, but the GFS has remained comparatively steady, with a much smaller wobble west. I'm counting on you to turn on your snow magnet and bring this one west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: CMC gets it done lol. Too bad ocean city only has a few plows. The Canadian wipes OC off the map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: And it needs to phase clean sooner like the 3K seemed to indicate. But hey we are tracking so what the heck. Nothing else to do today Exactly. We need the full phase to happen over Pensacola, or even further west, not Grand Bahama to have any shot. The earlier the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Wonderdog said: Crushes South Jersey. Crushes coastal DE too. Would be some 15-20" totals if this were reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 CMC gets it done lol.I’d like to see the Euro catch on too before getting more intrigued. I’ve kept my expectations back here extremely low not expecting anything. I’m keeping tabs for my parents though. They’re in a much better spot right now. If Canadian is right, I’ll buy a pack of Labat Blue as appreciation. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 dont think we like the UK, looks pretty far out to sea at 72 but tough to tell on these maps. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=60&carte=1021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: I feel the pain with everyone on this storm. It’s a tough case to handle, but I have to side with PSU and Wes on this one. The SS vort is quite vigorous but we just don’t have what it takes from the NS and the orientation of the trough is just going sweep the storm out and cut off the western shield of the precipitation. I think it’s pretty clear the two streams will not phase in time and the more correct the SS is simulated west and neg tilt, the harder the turn OTS will be once the NS comes in. It’s a punch to the gut to watch this. It’s torture. I'm not even sure what to root for...at this point we're stuck in between on that northern stream feature. We might be better off if it trended weaker/slower/NW and just stayed out of the way and gave this enough room on its own. I don't see that either though. 3k nam almost pulled that scenario off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Eastern Shore weenies are pledging their allegiance to Canada after that run. It’s too bad I have to work end of week. I’d make a visit to my parents again in a heart beat lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, MillvilleWx said: I’d like to see the Euro catch on too before getting more intrigued. I’ve kept my expectations back here extremely low not expecting anything. I’m keeping tabs for my parents though. They’re in a much better spot right now. If Canadian is right, I’ll buy a pack of Labat Blue as appreciation. . I am loving this because I am off this week and was planning on heading out to Canaan to play in the snow. This is exactly the same situation as Jan last year, when I was planning the same trip and changed my plans and went to Rehoboth instead. Maybe Deja vu! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Surprised Ji didn't post 12z JMA at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not even sure what to root for...at this point we're stuck in between on that northern stream feature. We might be better off if it trended weaker/slower/NW and just stayed out of the way and gave this enough room on its own. I don't see that either though. 3k nam almost pulled that scenario off. That would yield a weaker storm without the NS feeding in. But if it’s our only shot I’m on board ;-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Eastern Shore weenies are pledging their allegiance to Canada after that run. I will be traveling one direction or another. I am not thrilled about the prospects even for my yard at this point tbh. I think this ends up scraping the beaches with a few hours of moderate snow, or its a complete miss. Canaan...or Rehoboth? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I’d take my 2” and run straight to the snow bank. I guess we just wait and see what the “king” says. BTW—Happy New Year everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Gimme the Canadian and I'm good. I qill have gotten my 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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