BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Yes if that as depicted could stay primary strengthen and head east of north game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 West of north...too much whiskey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Double barrel Low presenting itself. FWIW it has the second Low much further north than last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 Bingo!!! We now have a closed low forming at 500 mb just inland off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Bingo!!! We now have a closed low forming at 500 mb just inland off the coast. Yeah, but oddly no precip coming ashore. Sometimes it just doesn't want to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Congrats South Carolina. This would be historic for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 We are now seeing a weak closed low at 500 and a strong one at 700 mb just off of OBX stacked. Again, I haven't looked at the surface but these would suggest we are in the process of seeing the capture of the surface low irregardless of what may be depicted on the surface. eta: This is what we want to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 500 closes off but you can see the NS vort on it’s heels ready to kick it East. It’d be game on here if not for that I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Bingo!!! We now have a closed low forming at 500 mb just inland off the coast. Man that is close..not sure I buy that precip shield..973 low..jeez that would be epic and so close it hurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Its fun I guess to look at the NAM outside of its useful range. But I mean, who cares if it looks crappy at the surface? Like I said yesterday, we have the EURO- and as long as it doesn't take a step in the wrong direction, there is some reason for optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Its fun I guess to look at the NAM outside of its useful range. But I mean, who cares if it looks crappy at the surface? Like I said yesterday, we have the EURO- and as long as it doesn't take a step in the wrong direction, there is some reason for optimism.Seems like the nam is creeping more and more north each run before getting kicked out to seaSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Its fun I guess to look at the NAM outside of its useful range. But I mean, who cares if it looks crappy at the surface? Like I said yesterday, we have the EURO- and as long as it doesn't take a step in the wrong direction, there is some reason for optimism. I didn’t even go back to check last night..it must have been ok..I took a break from weather last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: 500 closes off but you can see the NS vort on it’s heels ready to kick it East. It’d be game on here if not for that I think. Honestly I am not sure we should worry about it at this point. The timing on that has been so erratic from the NAM that it is making that follow up almost impossible to predict. The main thing is we see an initial decent clean phase and the upper levels are responding well to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Ji said: Seems like the nam is creeping more and more north each run before getting kicked out to sea Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Enough to keep your interest? Never mind wait until this model cycle ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Nam Gfs Cleaner phase like you said. Just needs a tick or two west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: Seems like the nam is creeping more and more north each run before getting kicked out to sea Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk It does wonky stuff at this range. I really couldn't care less what it thinks is going to occur at this point, good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Honestly I am not sure we should worry about it at this point. The timing on that has been so erratic from the NAM that it is making that follow up almost impossible to predict. The main thing is we see an initial decent clean phase and the upper levels are responding well to it.Certainly a way cleaner phase and better look. I loved seeing the closed 500 low as the upper levels respond. Hopefully a good start to the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 At the end of its run as well, but h5 at hour 60 on 12z 3km NAM looks like a cleaner phase as well, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It does wonky stuff at this range. I really couldn't care less what it thinks is going to occur at this point, good or bad. Yeah, I'm just keeping an eye on how it trends H5 inside 48 hrs. It has improved slightly each run at H5 since yesterday morning. I think it's kind of a weenie move to just throw it out completely after 48hrs but we all know it does weird stuff outside of that range. It will be interesting to see how the globals handle that last piece of energy diving out of the plains. NAM depicts it as a kicker. If we see that with the globals over the next 24 hrs we'll know if the NAM is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Looks like the models are trending west for a bigger snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3k Nam much more impressive. 988 slp further south and west at 60 hrs versus 993 on 12k. Precip much further inland too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The real problem is the ns vort acting as a kicker. Trying to compare to Jan 2000 doesn't work for this reason. Our best hope would be to get clipped before the storm gets pushed east. My weenie mind has dreams of the rare instance of good snows in DC and Boston and the NYC snow hole. That permutation is on the table, albeit a remote chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 hour ago, attml said: I am sure we are all hoping for a shift west! I know this will be updated in about an hour, but the 06z GGEM (above) made another shift that appears to follow the Euro. Here's a close-up of the above map. 0.1" line now through Baltimore. Also much less qpf for SNE. If that keeps up, I'll feel pretty bad for them. We all know how much it hurts to have the rug pulled out from under you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: Looks like the models are trending west for a bigger snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic? Mid Atlantic coast perhaps. But we are certainly looking marginally better. 3K as mitch said gives some hope. Need that same clean phase but just further west tick or two if we want some thing DC and west. But we are ticks if the NAM is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 25 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Bingo!!! We now have a closed low forming at 500 mb just inland off the coast. "Inland off the coast"? What hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, cae said: I know this will be updated in about an hour, but the 06z GGEM (above) made another shift that appears to follow the Euro. Here's a close-up of the above map. 0.1" line now through Baltimore. Also much less qpf for SNE. If that keeps up, I'll feel pretty bad for them. We all know how much it hurts to have the rug pulled out from under you. Judging on what i see for that map... My city in Magnolia DE gets almost a foot of snow and even more down south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 It's closer I'll give it that but the fatal problem I still see and why even given the early phase and bomb on the nam it still misses is the northern stream (piece C) is diving down right on top of us. It phases later but that takes some time so for our purposes it acts as a kicker. It has too. The phase isn't going to stop time so that it can happen simultaneously and everything is progressing as this process is taking place. So if the trough is digging right over us...I don't see how this ends up tucked in like we need it. I guess why I've been so disengaged in this is that I see that as the most important thing. I want to see that dive down west of us. At least into Ohio if not Indiana. Not into PA. And while some of the changes with the stj wave and the first northern stream system have been favorable, I've seen no improvement in that final part. And absent that my fear is there is only so much this can go. We're seeing those other improvements with parts A & B help the Carolinas for sure and the Delmarva. But for west of the bay if that last northern stream piece keeps diving down on top of us it's going to hit a brick wall and turn east. It may or may not hook back in time for New England. Might even screw then. It would take an extremely rare almost perfectly clean immediate phase to tuck in tight enough given that trough axis or a sudden shift in that feature. If I see something start to change that last part of the equation I will immediately jump in. I want this. I'm just not feeling it as long as I keep seeing the trough diving in on top of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just keep throwing ice cubes down the toilet so the models can keep shifting west for good luck! Wear pajamas inside out yell "SNOW DAY!" into the freezer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just had a chance to look at the surface on the 12K NAM and this is why I take what it shows there with some skepticism and focus solely on the 500's. The surface seems some what fine all the way until we see it to just off of OBX. When this storm is located there we see it stacked all the way from 500 mb on down to the surface. Now this is where the surface goes somewhat wonky. We see the 500mb sliding up the coast and yet we see all the levels underneath including the surface taking a turn out to sea. While I expect a little tilt to the vertical stacking this is beyond that as it looks as if they are trying to escape. While possible I suppose, I do find this unlikely. The more likely outcome is that we see the 500mbs dragging the lower levels and the surface low along with it up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 ROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 317 AM EST MON JAN 01 2018 VALID 12Z MON JAN 01 2018 - 12Z THU JAN 04 2018 DAYS 1-3... ...SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC... ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT AS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND TRACKING NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON WED. THE ECMWF AND 21Z SREF MEAN/18Z GEFS MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST GA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS..WITH A FEW FASTER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STREAKING PRECIP NORTH UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE SAME SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW A STRIPE OF FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE COAST...MAKING FOR A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING PRECIP TYPE. THE 18-0Z NAM INDICATED A HIGHER AMPLITUDE 700 MB WAVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS/MEANS...RESULTING IN A STRONGER CYCLONE DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND MORE PRECIP AND HIGHER AMOUNTS OF EACH PRECIP TYPE. THE TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS COMBINES WITH PRECIP TYPE UNCERTAINTIES AND NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING DIFFERENCE TO RESULT IN A GREATER THAN NORMAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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