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Jan 4th Coastal


showmethesnow

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Not saying the globals are out to lunch but we are approaching the time where more focus should start being put on the higher resolution guidance especially what happens next 36 hours or so which obviously has much larger impact on variability with longer lead times. I see alot of folks looking at the GFS for example at 78 hours saying well, the surface low is in the same spot, lock it up. It doesnt work like that. If there is something at say 18 hours the globals are missing it is going to significantly alter their output at 78 hrs. With this setup, I am under the impression we should be looking at what is happening shorter term for clues on what will happen later or am I completely off base?

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