stormtracker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: This. The only time I'll get excited for my yard is when all 3 globals show something other than no snow. The range of soltuions is still pretty far away from that. I mean look, I get it. When you’re emotionally invested in a storm, you can get clouded (pun intended) and definitely biased. It happens to me still. You think every objective negative analysis is people out to sh*t on you when that’s not the case. Like you and most others, we’ve seen this whole thing play out countless times before. There have been Hail Mary comebacks, but after a certain timeframe and the tell tale signs don’t show up, you know where the road ends. Again..hope I’m eating a whole flock of crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knglover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nah, if i was trying to do that, you’d know for sure. I was just asking why the congrats already since there hasn’t been a storm yet or any *real* changes as of late. Sure, it’s moving west, but outside of the eastern shore, we’re still smoking cirrus on the big three models. I want the storm as much as you do, I just try to be grounded and realistic about. Maybe 0z will be..... Ok you win...sorry i said anything...I know my place now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, snjókoma said: There's 4 GGEM runs a day? I thought it only ran at 00z and 12z. At 06z and 18z it only goes out to 84 hours. I think they use it to set the boundary conditions for the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The northern stream kicker will be fully sampled for tonight’s 00z runs; if 95 and west can expect measurable snow out of this, I’d think we need the big globals to shift to a better solution at 0z. We’re (MBY) still on the outside looking in on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, knglover said: Ok you win...sorry i said anything...I know my place now Sigh. Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I mean look, I get it. When you’re emotionally invested in a storm, you can get clouded (pun intended) and definitely biased. It happens to me still. You think every objective negative analysis is people out to sh*t on you when that’s not the case. Like you and most others, we’ve seen this whole thing play out countless times before. There have been Hail Mary comebacks, but after a certain timeframe and the tell tale signs don’t show up, you know where the road ends. Again..hope I’m eating a whole flock of crow. You're not even home go out and eat something and let us live in our fantasy world here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 As model consensus comes to agreement on a mid-atlantic significant snowfall event and extreme northeast, I'm gonna start preparing just in case it gets bad for driving here. Won't overhype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Climate175 said: GEFS ensembles a little closer to the coast than last run. The westward shift still continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You're not even home go out and eat something and let us live in our fantasy world here Just landed at B-Dub. I’ll be on a lot more now to ruin your Cheerios. And apparently put people in their place by simply disagreeing with them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Negnao said: Basically the same thing I was trying to say when I got told I was being negative. Until the big dogs bite on this storm, best to temper expectations. That's all. You just said it better. Lol Riding the edge of big storms is brutal. I can't think of a time outside of 48 hours where I felt good being on the edge. I do believe the gfs has a se bias with precip with coastals so that's in my mind. Conversely, I don't trust the accuracy of the rest enough to discount anything. This storm has one very bad/difficult thing going for it....it's not born yet and when it does its going to become really big really fast. If this was a more normal long track storm i would trust the euro the most. But not when a storm doesn't even exist yet. Models are nothing but giant complicated calculators. A hell of a lot of math goes into something like this and the data is imperfect. That allows errors to extrapolate and magnify quickly. If this storm was over land and already getting underway I would feel different. It's pretty wild how much stuff is about to happen in the atmosphere in the next 72 hours. Models are really good but this specific instance is unusually complicated. We're still a good 24 hours at least from understanding what is possible here out on the edge. The delmarva is getting snow. That's probably a lock. How much is another big bag of who knows. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 9 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Or plenty of booze. AMEN to that! The beer NEVER ever lets you down lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I mean look, I get it. When you’re emotionally invested in a storm, you can get clouded (pun intended) and definitely biased. It happens to me still. You think every objective negative analysis is people out to sh*t on you when that’s not the case. Like you and most others, we’ve seen this whole thing play out countless times before. There have been Hail Mary comebacks, but after a certain timeframe and the tell tale signs don’t show up, you know where the road ends. Again..hope I’m eating a whole flock of crow. we needed a 250 mile shift a few days ago....we got it...and its still showing no snow for us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Just landed at B-Dub. I’ll be on a lot more now to ruin your Cheerios. And apparently put people in their place? We need some adult supervision. We have been running around with scissors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, JMarsden said: Sorry but what?!??? End of days? I said i was just preparing... not like i'm gonna buy 100 loaves of bread or 100 jugs of milk. I'm getting ready just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: GEFS ensembles a little closer to the coast than last run. The westward shift still continues. with the GFS, it feels like weve been stuck in place for 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Ji said: with the GFS, it feels like weve been stuck in place for 3 days. Either the GFS is the worst model currently, and will cave with the others, or it's the best, and every other guidance caves with the GFS. I have no idea which one is more likely, but the GFS has barely moved for the past 6 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: I said i was just preparing... not like i'm gonna buy 100 loaves of bread or 100 jugs of milk. I'm getting ready just in case. Don’t forget toilet paper. Somehow snowstorms make people hit the crapper more than usual. Proven fact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: with the GFS, it feels like weve been stuck in place for 3 days. If it makes you feel any better...the gefs shifted the trace line half a county west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We need some adult supervision. We have been running around with scissors. well i hope you’re not looking to me then. I’m like the older brother who encourages the bad behavior when i should know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Either the GFS is the worst model currently, and will cave with the others, or it's the best, and every other guidance caves with the GFS. I have no idea which one is more likely, but the GFS has barely moved for the past 6 runs That is what concerns me the most. It’s been rock solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If it makes you feel any better...the gefs shifted the trace line half a county west. Lol i am actually enjoying this storm because we never had a chance. I was really depressed when the monster STJ 60 hour snowstorms went away. We had a stretch there where every model...no matter what the solution gave us double digit snow. That was depressing. this is actually stress free-fun. Of course, both will result in no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That is what concerns me the most. It’s been rock solid. Insight or obstinacy? The track record is short of the former. Still, it would be nice for this to be a GFS coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, Jebman said: AMEN to that! The beer NEVER ever lets you down lol I’m in my frozen swimming poolz right now! Anyway—let’s reel some fluff in at 0z. We all need a win... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Either the GFS is the worst model currently, and will cave with the others, or it's the best, and every other guidance caves with the GFS. I have no idea which one is more likely, but the GFS has barely moved for the past 6 runs That should tell you something. Never discount the GFS. And, a lot of this is pattern recognition. I would be shocked if the GFS totally misses this at 48 - 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 If the storm busts for Delaware, there will still be enough snow to close school in delaware, it only takes about 2 inches falling at the right time to shut down my school district. The roads will be ice covered due to mega cold and warm up not till sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, WeathermanB said: If the storm busts for Delaware, there will still be enough snow to close school in delaware, it only takes about 2 inches falling at the right time to shut down my school district. The roads will be ice covered due to mega cold and warm up not till sunday Do your homework kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: If the storm busts for Delaware, there will still be enough snow to close school in delaware, it only takes about 2 inches falling at the right time to shut down my school district. The roads will be ice covered due to mega cold and warm up not till sunday Thanks Jim...now for sports with Skeeter Williams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 28 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: As model consensus comes to agreement on a mid-atlantic significant snowfall event and extreme northeast, I'm gonna start preparing just in case it gets bad for driving here. Won't overhype. Well, since an inch of snow can cause gridlock around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I don't know that we are getting a big snowstorm, or any snow of note, but I do think the GFS is out to lunch. Very well could be wrong, but just looking at the GEFS, and other models, and knowing it's biases, I think it's way wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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