osfan24 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Believe me so do I, but having the SREFs lead the charge to get me something shovelable isn’t encouraging. Overall you can’t say the trends aren’t encouraging, but I still have my foot on the brake. It’s still a goofy setup with a lot of moving pieces. Certainly the rug could be pulled out at any moment. But a lot of mets are continuing to hint that it's going to come even farther west and it seems like a lot of the models are continuing to trend west, especially some of the shorter-range ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: For you weenies The ARW SREF members have a known bias to overamplify the living hell out of systems. In the Jan 2016 storm, most of those members brought large snow totals well northwest of where they were observed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 SREF gives a decent probability of 8+ inches of snow for eastern delmarva. I'll go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Did I miss the time when the SREFs become something other than hot garbage? I actually thought they were being discontinued. You know how we roll... Pick the model with the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, jrodd321 said: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html That site shows the RGEM only out to 48 hours. At 49+ hours, it's the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 RGEM looks to be advisory snow from I-95 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: RGEM looks to be advisory snow from I-95 east. I'd say advisory snow right along I-95 and warning snow for mainly kent and sussex counties in delaware, just along the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Gfs still wants nothing to do with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I wish the euro ran every 6 instead of the GFS. GFS is going to go down with the east ship (right or wrong). And for those warning about the nam and srefs....if you don't know they are the lowest rung of guidance then you shouldn't be playing the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, osfan24 said: RGEM looks to be about 6-8 hours of moderate to heavy snow sandwiched by a few hours on each side of very light snow. This is the 18z run of the RGEM. It's tracking straight OTS in the last few panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 At least the GFS is digging "piece #2" further west so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The GFS is weaker with the surface low, but further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS is West, but not by much lol. Still doesn't like this storm for whatever reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS is slightly better. Slower NS shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: This is the 18z run of the RGEM. It's tracking straight OTS in the last few panels. ? (Courtesy @OSUmetstud) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS is getting slightly better by moving west. but still not up to par - just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I wish the euro ran every 6 instead of the GFS. GFS is going to go down with the east ship (right or wrong). And for those warning about the nam and srefs....if you don't know they are the lowest rung of guidance then you shouldn't be playing the game. I think a lot of us are on that ship. But this is still fun we will know soon enough. There will be model hallucinations no doubt on Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS look better upstairs, but the surface is total meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, MD Snow said: This is the 18z run of the RGEM. It's tracking straight OTS in the last few panels. No. Look at the precip panel. Go to hour 48 (link below) and then forward through the end. The precip field heads riggt for us. It's freakin' beautiful! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018010118&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=391 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS a little bullish on such a small precip field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: GFS look better upstairs, but the surface is total meh. Are you basing that on the NS being further south on this run? Trying to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 18z RGEM would be a yes please run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Wonderdog said: Are you basing that on the NS being further south on this run? Trying to learn. Not bashing anything. Just making an observation that at 500mb, the trough appears slightly west and more of a "clean" phase/combination/whatever you want to call it. The surface reflection isn't stellar though and we all miss the storm locally. This is not what you want to see at 60ish hours from the start of an event. The lack of reliable global models moving towards snow as we close gives me the impression that it's going to be a very painful "close but no cigar" storm for anyone west of the Bay. I hope I'm wrong and this pulls a Jan 25, 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: 18z RGEM would be a yes please run An 18z run of the RGEM correctly predicted a rain shower imby 8 years, 9 months, 14 days, and 2, or maybe it was 3, hours ago, so it can be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The two most reliable models don't like this storm for us. Not a good sign. I get that the euro had a little light snow and trended west, but until the gfs and/or euro support this event for us, we're setting ourselves up for a major disappointment if we buy into some of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Really need that coastal front to be more involved. Some hints of that being possible on a few of these runs. I have a feeling it will, but the excessive modeled latent heat release from all of the parameterized convection is throwing some of these runs off the rails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Meteocentre has the 18z RGEM meteogram for DC out to 84 hours. About 0.5" qpf as snow for DC, but take it with a grain of salt as it's the RGEM at long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Negnao said: The two most reliable models don't like this storm for us. Not a good sign. I get that the euro had a little light snow and trended west, but until the gfs and/or euro support this event for us, we're setting ourselves up for a major disappointment if we buy into some of the other models. GFS is reliable? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Not bashing anything. Just making an observation that at 500mb, the trough appears slightly west and more of a "clean" phase/combination/whatever you want to call it. The surface reflection isn't stellar though and we all miss the storm locally. This is not what you want to see at 60ish hours from the start of an event. The lack of reliable global models moving towards snow as we close gives me the impression that it's going to be a very painful "close but no cigar" storm for anyone west of the Bay. I hope I'm wrong and this pulls a Jan 25, 2000. I didn't say "bashing"; I said basing. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Has that 1012mb over the Great Lakes always been there? It's surrounded by 3 contours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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