BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Before people start celebrating and hoping: Thanks. But it was the best 10 minutes of this tracking so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Maybe the 3K is off its rocker but I'm much more interested in 500 mb maps than surface maps right now, not to go Bernie Rayno on all of you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Love what I'm seeing but still need to be cautious as this is a razors edge from alot of something to alot of nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Man. The NAM is so close to what the 3K is spitting out. That early phase is what we are begging for. The interaction is happening way earlier on each model run now. We may back into something here after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Maybe the 3K is off its rocker but I'm much more interested in 500 mb maps than surface maps right now, not to go Bernie Rayno on all of you! Makes perfect sense though, since surface maps are gonna be drastically different and shift around a ton, especially with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 For you weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I'll take member 12 for us folks along I-81 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I think Levi is 100% right. That's a hell of a warm seclusion at 850mb, damn near subtropical-looking in the low levels. No doubt there will be plenty of convection, but it's way overdone. No doubt there will be some important effects from convection, but it's throwing off these NWP runs like mad. The important thing is that the NS shortwave is slower and gives the southern wave more room and time to go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: That would be me. And honestly, being out made it a lot easier. I might have to use this technique more often in the future. I'm in the boat with ya. It's been easier this way. If we pull off a miracle I won't be upset at all that I was wrong. But not being overly vested has avoided the emotional roller coaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The energy over Kentucky needs to either go away or be phased into the event or else there's going to be a very small western edge of the precip shield. Should be a major red flag to everyone that only the NAMs and silly spin-offs like the CRAS, AWR and RPM have even advisory level snow west of the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 HM with some wise words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I'm in the boat with ya. It's been easier this way. If we pull off a miracle I won't be upset at all that I was wrong. But not being overly vested has avoided the emotional roller coaster. I have to remind myself the GFS gave us both zip. These SREFs are just fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The energy over Kentucky needs to either go away or be phased into the event or else there's going to be a very small western edge of the precip shield. Should be a major red flag to everyone that only the NAMs and silly spin-offs like the CRAS, AWR and RPM have even advisory level snow west of the Bay. Yeah this one oozes heartbreak but as many have illuded to it’s nice to be tracking something appreciable in the short range. No matter how it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah this one oozes heartbreak but as many have illuded to it’s nice to be tracking something appreciable in the short range. No matter how it works out. Yeah, I agree with you. I have no expectations whatsoever, but the tracking has been pretty fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The energy over Kentucky needs to either go away or be phased into the event or else there's going to be a very small western edge of the precip shield. Should be a major red flag to everyone that only the NAMs and silly spin-offs like the CRAS, AWR and RPM have even advisory level snow west of the Bay. And the NAVGEM, CMC, Euro, SREF and JMA. All have at least .1 to 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Yeah this one oozes heartbreak but as many have illuded to it’s nice to be tracking something appreciable in the short range. No matter how it works out. I'll survive whether we score or not. Either way I will move onto or look for the next trackable system in the pipeline. That's what I do after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 54 hr RGEM looks like nam 3k precip field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 RGEM looks really nice. I trust it over the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 18z GFS is loading now, let's see depiction it shows this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 RGEM looks really nice. I trust it over the NAM.If we have a 960 low near Carolina...that typically gives us snowSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Did I miss the time when the SREFs become something other than hot garbage? I actually thought they were being discontinued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: HM with some wise words Is he saying it’s meteorologically impossible? If so, I like them fightin’ woids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Did I miss the time when the SREFs become something other than hot garbage? I actually thought they were being discontinued. Nope, they're still hot garbage. Apparently they got an upgrade last year, but so far the SREFs are the most bullish so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Did I miss the time when the SREFs become something other than hot garbage? I actually thought they were being discontinued. I hope you get gas after you have to eat those words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 RGEM looks to be about 6-8 hours of moderate to heavy snow sandwiched by a few hours on each side of very light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 RGEM looks really nice. I trust it over the NAM.U called it on ukmet. One of the most east modelsSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: I hope you get gas after you have to eat those words. Believe me so do I, but having the SREFs lead the charge to get me something shovelable isn’t encouraging. Overall you can’t say the trends aren’t encouraging, but I still have my foot on the brake. It’s still a goofy setup with a lot of moving pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: RGEM looks to be about 6-8 hours of moderate to heavy snow sandwiched by a few hours on each side of very light snow. Where did you get that? I think it only goes out to 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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