pasnownut Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Maybe a stupid question, but how can you tell it "closes off"? Look at the 500 map and you will see at around hour 60 an almost complete O In the isobars not the U or V indicating an open low. When it “ closes off “ it shows increased dynamics in the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Very complicated senario, this is a triple phaser with almost the entire geopotential and thermal gradients involved, a disturbance anywhere within 1500 mile radius could make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This is a scary storm for forecasters on the coast. Can’t take any coastal bomb with arctic air in place lightly. I’m in until at least 0z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 FWIW...3k has a much more robust precip shield on the nw side. lol 960mb off OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 NAM 3K is much, much more interesting for DC. Snowing @ 58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3k NAM is like 10 times as bullish as 12k NAM Can anyone explain the difference vs the 12k NAM on why the precip shield is much farther NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 OMG!!! THE NAMK3...thats what im talking about. Jan 25,2000. Finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Even though this run is a "disaster" at the surface, it was improved in the upper levels. That's the only thing worth discussing about the NAM way out there is Namland. If that kicker can continue to dig S and act as a partial phase, that should help with precip on the NW side as well as the track to be more northernly than easterly - at least I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: the only trend not deniable is the amount of snow we are getting. 0-1 This is a new one for us in that most of the runs the last 24 hours keep improving yet the snowshield remains unchanged at 0-1 winter clearly hates us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: OMG!!! THE NAMK3...thats what im talking about. Jan 25,2000. Finally! Yea, 3k is the ticket. 958 just off of OBX and there is no way our yards get whiffed. No f'n way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: OMG!!! THE NAMK3...thats what im talking about. Jan 25,2000. Finally! Was just going to comment on that. Looks like a shallacking incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: that kicker kind of came out of nowhere to become the most important player in our lack of storm chances Dude our area is out this is just fun to watch evolve. SE winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 in all seriousness....we have joked about Jan 25,2000 for 18 years but this is legit the best chance weve had to have something similar...Im glad we have a bunch more model runs left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, 3k is the ticket. 958 just off of OBX and there is no way our yards get whiffed. No f'n way. Was 2000 958mb? That is insane. Likely over done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3km NAM shows a 41mb deepening in 12hrs. Looks like the BS it pulled during hurricane season. Toss first, ask questions later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Amped said: 3km NAM shows a 41mb deepening in 12hrs. Looks like the BS it pulled during hurricane season. Toss first, ask questions later. Yea but you also don’t want to see it trend ots either lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Was 2000 958mb? That is insane. Likely over done. It's almost certainly overdone. Love the placement though. Just need another 50-100 miles west and we get destroyed. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Further east version of Jan 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Was 2000 958mb? That is insane. Likely over done. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/ good info on that storm. it only deepened to 986 satellite: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 the Nam3k has a much cleaner phase than the Nam and trough close to going negative and a closed low inland as opposed to offshore. It opens up though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 on 3k , the low appears to be about 50 miles east of 12z, yet precip shield notably more NW. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I tried to extrapolate the 3kNAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: on 3k , the low appears to be about 50 miles east of 12z, yet precip shield notably more NW. Interesting. its 958 low...kind of makes up for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: the Nam3k has a much cleaner phase than the Nam and trough close to going negative and a closed low inland as opposed to offshore. It opens up though I’m assuming if that thing stays closed we’re in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: the Nam3k has a much cleaner phase than the Nam and trough close to going negative and a closed low inland as opposed to offshore. It opens up though The kicker dives down through Ohio and into Kentucky. If we can get it into Indiana and western Kentucky I think we would be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Before people start celebrating and hoping: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Ji said: its 958 low...kind of makes up for it good point.... your 500 map suggests the surface low also being further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Before people start celebrating and hoping: please dont post realism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Rgem should look real nice even thoigh just outside its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I can backwards extrapolate the RPM into being a hit (of some kind). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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