showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 Looks as if the 500's are trying to close off at 54 hrs. over eastern portion of Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Accuweather bad maps as always. Don't go there, they just are meteorologists for a living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Low is tucked in close to the SC/NC border at 57 and it looks like h500 has recovered. We might pull it off this run. Or at least a close call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: Looks as if the 500's are trying to close off at 54 hrs. over eastern portion of Georgia. Trying to close at 57. Might do it next panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Slp just got yanked NW between 54 & 57 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 It's probably gonna do it's pivot OTS thing it's been doing for the past 4 runs for whatever reason. Looks similar to 12z though, and Central South Carolina/Georgia get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Can you say double barrel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Low closer to the coast is taking over at 60h... 977mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This thing it like a BOMB going off !!!! What a jump back at 57 wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Slp just got yanked NW between 54 & 57 hrs The trailing piece digging further west in KY. Might help close it off and back flow. Nam is crazy though so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Slp jist got yanked NW between 54 & 57 hrs 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Slp jist got yanked NW between 54 & 57 hrs the NS Kicker looks stronger this run though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 NAM being NAM doing that unrealistic yank eastward after a NW yank... pls stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 The trailing NS energy is coming in farther south. We should see a more northerly component to the coastal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 500 briefly closes off at 60 but opens up again at 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: The trailing NS energy is coming in farther south. We should see a more northerly component to the coastal track. Right or wrong, that is an improvement @ h5 no matter where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 if only the west side of the low had much of a precip shield as the east side lol. Disaster run...ok...next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: The trailing NS energy is coming in farther south. We should see a more northerly component to the coastal track. Yes, get ready for a mid-atlantic snowstorm once that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: if only the west side of the low had much of a precip shield as the east side lol. Disaster run...ok...next Glad it's the NAM and not any other model, but the NAM is certainly edging into it's more "useful" range soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The trends are undeniable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: 500 briefly closes off at 60 but opens up again at 63. Maybe a stupid question, but how can you tell it "closes off"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Right or wrong, that is an improvement @ h5 no matter where it goes. No doubt. Really don't care what's being depicted on the surface. What matters is what we are seeing upstairs. And after a slow start I like where the 500's went later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: The trends are undeniable. the only trend not deniable is the amount of snow we are getting. 0-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Maybe a stupid question, but how can you tell it "closes off"? Closed contours @ 500mb. This is a duck pin bowling ball but still a bowling ball. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018010118/namconus_z500a_us_46.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Maybe a stupid question, but how can you tell it "closes off"? If you look at the image below at H66, look at the 500 contours off the NC coast. You can see a closed circle. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018010118&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Closed contours @ 500mb. This is a duck pin bowling ball but still a bowling ball. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018010118/namconus_z500a_us_46.png that kicker kind of came out of nowhere to become the most important player in our lack of storm chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Ridge slightly taller in the latest NAM run. expect a more northerly track and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: the only trend not deniable is the amount of snow we are getting. 0-1 Always the optimist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Ji said: that kicker kind of came out of nowhere to become the most important player in our lack of storm chances Even though this run is a "disaster" at the surface, it was improved in the upper levels. That's the only thing worth discussing about the NAM way out there is Namland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, WeathermanB said: Ridge slightly taller in the latest NAM run. expect a more northerly track and west. Despite the kicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 97.9 bay country already calling 6-12 for the shore. Looks pretty set down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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