Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Early on but seems like 18z Nam isn't as good as 12z at h5. Thoughts? The nam is better at what happens after a storm is formed and even then I don't trust it...ever. Stick with the globals until under 48 hours and it makes the hunt MUCH easier on the nerves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This throws some cold water on the SREFS, but here's the RGEM ensemble for DCA. It's 12z vs 15z, but I'm not sure how much changed in that 3 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Sref 24 hour precip map for posterior!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 SREFS are way, way west right now. The bullseye is just east of the metros now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Sref 24 hour precip map for posterior!!!!!! Lol big ass comma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Mean SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Early on but seems like 18z Nam isn't as good as 12z at h5. Thoughts? Recovered fast, higher heights off the east coast by 24hrs. Probably west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I know boxing day has been mentioned a lot here...but I remember looking at those SREF maps during that storm and thinking to myself..."they must be right to some extent...I'll just cut their totals in half just to play it safe." So I did and didn't get a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Meso seem to be the most bullish. Could be an artifact of overdoing things because meso's aren't d3+ models. Or they could be seeing something. My money is on them grossly overdoing it. I expect to get nam'd at least once over the next 24 hours. Even if it's fools gold, wouldn't it feel good to get nam'd big time? It's been so long since we felt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 SREF pointing at a pretty sizeable snowstorm... possibly a foot of snow for my hometown? Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 23 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Use it at will pal. Whatever it takes to snow. Glad to see you “back”....although we all know you never really left. Saw your post regarding liking where we are headed beyond and yeah looks like a fun period coming up no matter the results. I still think anything good in my yard is a huge longshot. Now that I've made the decision to head to the eastern shore I've become much more interested. My mom's place is waterfront on the choptank river. If the river in front of her house is partially frozen AND there's wind whipped 3-6" of snow I'm going to have a really good time. She knows how bad I am with snow storms. Been that way since I learned to walk I think. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/947922671202947078 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Negnao said: Even if it's fools gold, wouldn't it feel good to get nam'd big time? It's been so long since we felt that. A weenie's dream is to have a storm trend in your favor up until game time. We have been let down time and time again over the last 2 years outside of the Jan 2016 storm. It's about time we get one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Recovered fast, higher heights off the east coast by 24hrs. Probably west. Agreed, should have more room to amplify as the trough goes neutral. Nam will drive even the best of us insane though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knglover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Before we go any further, lets give credit to @Cobalt! Guy was relentless on his optimism for this thing coming back to us. Even if none of us get even mood flakes he, and I guess to a lesser extent @mitchnick kept CPR going on this system when most had already tied a toetag on it. thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: A weenie's dream is to have a storm trend in your favor up until game time. We have been let down time and time again over the last 2 years outside of the Jan 2016 storm. It's about time we get one! it's really not uncanny. happens all year around, we just don't really pay attention to it as much in the spring lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, knglover said: Before we go any further, lets give credit to @Cobalt! Guy was relentless on his optimism for this thing coming back to us. Even if none of us get even mood flakes he, and I guess to a lesser extent @mitchnick kept CPR going on this system when most had already tied a toetag on it. thanks guys! And to that extent, Ralph Wiggum also kept my hopes up with his great analysis. Very rare to get big winter storms to trend West, and even if this one isn't a big hit for the DC/Baltimore metros, it's been a fun one to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This will be one of those big winter storms to trend west, which is rare. But happening. I do expect a few more shifts west in the euro and nam until around 24-48 hours out, then the forecast will be set in stone. Remember to throw ice cubes down the toilet to keep the trend west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, knglover said: Before we go any further, lets give credit to @Cobalt! Guy was relentless on his optimism for this thing coming back to us. Even if none of us get even mood flakes he, and I guess to a lesser extent @mitchnick kept CPR going on this system when most had already tied a toetag on it. thanks guys! Meh....the Ravens spiked the football too yesterday with 6 minutes to go and we know how that ended. We could still fail even though the trend is favorable. Keep that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knglover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: And to that extent, Ralph Wiggum also kept my hopes up with his great analysis. Very rare to get big winter storms to trend West, and even if this one isn't a big hit for the DC/Baltimore metros, it's been a fun one to track. 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Meh....the Ravens spiked the football too yesterday with 6 minutes to go and we know how that ended. We could still fail even though the trend is favorable. Keep that in mind. Yes I forgot about @Ralph Wiggum too. Mitch, I am saying regardless of outcome you guys made it fun without being overtly weenie-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, knglover said: Before we go any further, lets give credit to @Cobalt! Guy was relentless on his optimism for this thing coming back to us. Even if none of us get even mood flakes he, and I guess to a lesser extent @mitchnick kept CPR going on this system when most had already tied a toetag on it. thanks guys! Wait, the storm happened already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 NAM is more amped through 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Wait, the storm happened already? We all know how premature celebrations go *cough* *cough* Every snowstorm we have *cough* *cough* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: NAM is more amped through 45 Not so sure about that but we'll see. Low is weaker and is forming further offshore. Precip depiction looks almost identical to 12z. Either way, where the low ends up forming is gonna be very important in how this goes. Cutoff will probably be brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, knglover said: Yes I forgot about @Ralph Wiggum too. Mitch, I am saying regardless of outcome you guys made it fun without being overtly weenie-ish. I know and appreciate the shout out, but it ain't over and there's no such thing as a fun weenie fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: NAM is more amped through 45 I was actually thinking heights look a little lower along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 good trends for the DCAlexandria Super Weenie Fun Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 Don't like the look at 45hr as much as on the 12Z. Let's see where it goes from there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Wasn't really paying attention what was going on down south but man Savannah looks like it's going to get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Low is tucked in close to the SC/NC border at 57 and it looks like h500 has recovered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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