Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Still the minority of course but a notable uptick in eps solutions that get the .1 qpf line into the I95 corridor. Around a quarter of them now and a couple that would actually be half decent. Not sure how much the EPS adds at this range but overall supportive of what the op put out. there are 5-6 more euro runs before game time...lets get 25 miles each tick lol. And then you know there is always that final run right before the storm..that shifts everything east 50 miles and pulls the rug out from under us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The fact NAVGEM is so far west and we are seeing a west trend gives me hop this is real and there is still plenty of movement west to come. Half hour until the NAM. Excited to see small positive changes again! I hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Just to recap: SREF's - Get the .25 through the cities. JMA - about .2 for the cities. EURO - .1 for the cities. GGEM - .15 for the cities. NAVGEM - get's precip into the cities. Not sure how much. GFS - Nada for the entire eastern shore pretty much. I'm really interested to see how the short range models deal with things as they start to come into range. Check out the latest sref! Huge jump in qpf for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 the ROI of this storm might be some of the worst of all time when its all is said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: What is the breakdown of individual members? Like seeing that qpf line tick west. About half get .1 west of the bay compared to a quarter last night. Some of the west of the bay's only include SoMD though so half don't push .1 to 95 or anything like that. I think the best way to look at it is the EPS supports the op's shift instead of the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Negnao said: Check out the latest sref! Huge jump in qpf for DCA. Pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: there are 5-6 more euro runs before game time...lets get 25 miles each tick lol. And then you know there is always that final run right before the storm..that shifts everything east 50 miles and pulls the rug out from under us I'm heading east for this one unless my yard is in advisory level stuff at 24 hour leads. The chances of the 95 corridor getting 1-3" is still pretty slim for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Pic? And mean snowfall at DCA is over 8 inches. Again, never to be used as a forecast but to see if a trend is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Negnao said: And mean snowfall at DCA is over 8 inches. Again, never to be used as a forecast but to see if a trend is real. im sure that has nothing to do with those 2 members who always give us 20 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Euro control puts the .2 line running from Balt City to LaPlata. .15 runs mostly along i95 in MD. DC is between .1-.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Negnao said: And mean snowfall at DCA is over 8 inches. Again, never to be used as a forecast but to see if a trend is real. The SREFs have been so bad over the years, especially in these kind of situations with the western extent, but I still like to see them trending towards us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Looks like you guys/gals to the east have a legit chance to see some flakes out of this. It has been crazy this year with the way storms have trended better for the mid Atlantic on the models the closer we get. Just an uncanny year in many regards so far. I of course am not in this game. Unless I can steal some lake effect streamers on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Pic? Basically pulls the .5 line from the Atlantic beaches to the western shore of the bay. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER&ps=area# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro control puts the .2 line running from Balt City to LaPlata. .15 runs mostly along i95 in MD. DC is between .1-.15 that sucks....if thats the final tally but it seems like we are still in trend mode. I wish today was yesterday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro control puts the .2 line running from Balt City to LaPlata. .15 runs mostly along i95 in MD. DC is between .1-.15 Have to wonder if that's the best we can hope for aside from the miracle play 1/25/00 which seems unlikely in today's model world. Be great to get 1 inch or so but what would cause this to continue to jump west. Unless h5 is just that fluid still. Just thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: The SREFs have been so bad over the years, especially in these kind of situations with the western extent, but I still like to see them trending towards us. I agree 100 percent. It's usually a bad idea to even discuss them, but that's a huge jump in qpf and it's not just one member. There's clustering among a number of members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: The SREFs have been so bad over the years, especially in these kind of situations with the western extent, but I still like to see them trending towards us. They have burned us before but that’s a pretty significant jump in the QPF mean on this run and the majority are clustered between 0.4 and 0.6. I always ignore the top end solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That would be me. And honestly, being out made it a lot easier. I might have to use this technique more often in the future. Use it at will pal. Whatever it takes to snow. Glad to see you “back”....although we all know you never really left. Saw your post regarding liking where we are headed beyond and yeah looks like a fun period coming up no matter the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Accuweather's take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Climate175 said: Accuweather's take. Seems reasonable. Takeaway our wish casting, and his has been and is still most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The SREF trend is very notable to be seeing such big jumps but they struggle a lot and tend to be bullish. You also should remove those crazy high members that always inflate the mean and then see what the mean shows. Positive though. Goes along with everything else we are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: that sucks....if thats the final tally but it seems like we are still in trend mode. I wish today was yesterday lol This is the max member so for the 12z eps run, this would be best outcome....view at risk of knowing the odds....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Looking at BWI SREF, it has some ridiculous members approaching 35 inches BUT I will say there are several others in the 20-25 range and the mean is around 10. Certainly a bit more interesting than first thought. And all members are five inches or higher, which is probably the most notable part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Looking at BWI SREF, it has some ridiculous members approaching 35 inches BUT I will say there are several others in the 20-25 range and the mean is around 10. Certainly a bit more interesting than first thought. And all members are five inches or higher, which is probably the most notable part. Meso seem to be the most bullish. Could be an artifact of overdoing things because meso's aren't d3+ models. Or they could be seeing something. My money is on them grossly overdoing it. I expect to get nam'd at least once over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Looking at BWI SREF, it has some ridiculous members approaching 35 inches BUT I will say there are several others in the 20-25 range and the mean is around 10. Certainly a bit more interesting than first thought. And all members are five inches or higher, which is probably the most notable part. I was about to say you are crazy but there is only one member not at 5"... kinda wow. Only 4 not at 5" at DCA... If you want to weenie out even more: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, osfan24 said: Looking at BWI SREF, it has some ridiculous members approaching 35 inches BUT I will say there are several others in the 20-25 range and the mean is around 10. Certainly a bit more interesting than first thought. And all members are five inches or higher, which is probably the most notable part. ARW members FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I was about to say you are crazy but there is only one member not at 5"... kinda wow. Only 4 not at 5" at DCA... If you want to weenie out even more: Trying to keep my Weenieism in check but I'm starving for a legit snow AND this is really trending in our favor, though still a ways to go to bring this home. At least this is fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Meso seem to be the most bullish. Could be an artifact of overdoing things because meso's aren't d3+ models. Or they could be seeing something. My money is on them grossly overdoing it. I expect to get nam'd at least once over the next 24 hours. Early on but seems like 18z Nam isn't as good as 12z at h5. Thoughts? Seems further east to my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Amped said: ARW members FTW. The big ones obviously are but everything except one is over 5 and that's at 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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