mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 9:59 PM, Negnao said: The two most reliable models don't like this storm for us. Not a good sign. I get that the euro had a little light snow and trended west, but until the gfs and/or euro support this event for us, we're setting ourselves up for a major disappointment if we buy into some of the other models. Expand Have you considered just changing your screen name to NEGNO and be done with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/947950564373094400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 9:59 PM, Negnao said: The two most reliable models don't like this storm for us. Not a good sign. I get that the euro had a little light snow and trended west, but until the gfs and/or euro support this event for us, we're setting ourselves up for a major disappointment if we buy into some of the other models. Expand Most of us are not invested in this. It's just fun to track. We know we will likely lose but sometimes you still want to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:01 PM, mitchnick said: Have you considered just changing your screen name to NEGNO and be done with it? Expand Just because I'm tempering my excitement after a disappointing gfs run? I want this as much as you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 9:59 PM, Negnao said: The two most reliable models don't like this storm for us. Not a good sign. I get that the euro had a little light snow and trended west, but until the gfs and/or euro support this event for us, we're setting ourselves up for a major disappointment if we buy into some of the other models. Expand Aren't the two reliable models the Euro and Ukie based on track record? Both get snow into the DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:02 PM, BristowWx said: Most of us are not invested in this. It's just fun to track. We know we will likely lose but sometimes you still want to play. Expand I am. Ive gone from tofu dog to full Oscar Meyer on this. There are some promising trends that can give us accumulating snow from DCA to PHL, and some lovely cold afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I don't think anyone could say that this winter the GFS has been stellar, actually none of the models have been stellar this season, with respect to medium and long range stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This event will be enough to close school for a day or even two, depending on amount of snow and cold. Most likely scenario is that any snow that falls will make the roads pretty icy and the temperature forecast after the storm is mega cold, just mid-upper teens Fahrenheit so will keep roads covered in white until warm up, even in the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Good nowcasting storm, 5x more likely to trend at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The trends have at least been good for our Delmarva and southern Maryland folks. They always get shafted so at least someone stands to cash in on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:12 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Good nowcasting storm, 5x more likely to trend at the last minute. Expand I was thinking 4X but ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:14 PM, leesburg 04 said: I was thinking 4X but ok Expand Once those latent heat bombs start going off things will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:14 PM, leesburg 04 said: I was thinking 4X but ok Expand Pretty sure he was thinking 4.5x but rounded up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:10 PM, iFred said: I am. Ive gone from tofu dog to full Oscar Meyer on this. There are some promising trends that can give us accumulating snow from DCA to PHL, and some lovely cold afterwards. Expand Yes I know the trends. I have no idea what will happen so might just wait it out. All of the short range guidance is at range. See what 0z does I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:11 PM, Wonderdog said: I don't think anyone could say that this winter the GFS has been stellar, actually none of the models have been stellar this season, with respect to medium and long range stuff. Expand Yes sir agree. But this is short range or close to it. Can't just dismiss the GFS even if we want to. Can't just accept the meso models...you know w the drill. 0z should be helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:19 PM, BristowWx said: Yes sir agree. But this is short range or close to it. Can't just dismiss the GFS even if we want to. Can't just accept the meso models...you know w the drill. 0z should be helpful. Expand All the players will be over the US RAOB network by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 If the 18z GFS ensembles shift west more, could that be a foreshadowing of the 00z GFS op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 9:59 PM, Negnao said: The two most reliable models don't like this storm for us. Not a good sign. I get that the euro had a little light snow and trended west, but until the gfs and/or euro support this event for us, we're setting ourselves up for a major disappointment if we buy into some of the other models. Expand The EURO, UKIE, RGEM, NAVGEM, CMC, JMA and SREF all get accumulating snow to 95. Would probably be an advisory as is east of 95 if you are going by these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Ji really needs tonight's runs to continue improving, he wanted me to post this for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:21 PM, Climate175 said: If the 18z GFS ensembles shift west more, could that be a foreshadowing of the 00z GFS op? Expand No but it would make us feel better. West is west and we will take any positives as positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:04 PM, Negnao said: Just because I'm tempering my excitement after a disappointing gfs run? I want this as much as you do. Expand I could have told you the gfs was going to be east and bad before it ran. It does this fairly often with coastals. Sometimes it's right and other times it's wrong. I can predict the 0z run with 90% accuracy....it will move west but not enough to make anyone happy west of the bay. Then if all other 0z guidance looks better or holds then 6z will be another increment better but not enough. Lastly, all guidance can show decent solutions at 24-36 hours and it will FINALLY cave. Or other guidance will move east and make the gfs look smarter than it is. Lol. What we're seeing now is as predictable as the sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knglover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 8:22 PM, stormtracker said: Wait, the storm happened already? Expand If your attempt at being witty by making me look small made you feel better congratulations but I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:33 PM, Bob Chill said: I could have told you the gfs was going to be east and bad before it ran. It does this fairly often with coastals. Sometimes it's right and other times it's wrong. I can predict the 0z run with 90% accuracy....it will move west but not enough to make anyone happy west of the bay. Then if all other 0z guidance looks better or holds then 6z will be another increment better but not enough. Lastly, all guidance can show decent solutions at 24-36 hours and it will FINALLY cave. Or other guidance will move east and make the gfs look smarter than it is. Lol. What we're seeing now is as predictable as the sunrise. Expand Post of the year right there my friend. You’ve been doing this a while. That’s exactly how it will play out. It’s a 1 or a 0 for this particular event. No R/S line or damming or 850 issues. It will either snow or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:35 PM, knglover said: If your attempt at being witty by making me look small made you feel better congratulations but I don't get it. Expand Nah, if i was trying to do that, you’d know for sure. I was just asking why the congrats already since there hasn’t been a storm yet or any *real* changes as of late. Sure, it’s moving west, but outside of the eastern shore, we’re still smoking cirrus on the big three models. I want the storm as much as you do, I just try to be grounded and realistic about. Maybe 0z will be..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:33 PM, Bob Chill said: I could have told you the gfs was going to be east and bad before it ran. It does this fairly often with coastals. Sometimes it's right and other times it's wrong. I can predict the 0z run with 90% accuracy....it will move west but not enough to make anyone happy west of the bay. Then if all other 0z guidance looks better or holds then 6z will be another increment better but not enough. Lastly, all guidance can show decent solutions at 24-36 hours and it will FINALLY cave. Or other guidance will move east and make the gfs look smarter than it is. Lol. What we're seeing now is as predictable as the sunrise. Expand This is so true year in and year out over the past oh 20+ years. Up here along 95 in Delaware County we are sitting on the fence again as we have with all the storms this year, but luckily they have all over performed. In Media Delaware County, PA 13 miles SW of Philadelphia International airport we are sitting at 9.6" of snow for the year nickel and diming our way forwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:33 PM, Bob Chill said: I could have told you the gfs was going to be east and bad before it ran. It does this fairly often with coastals. Sometimes it's right and other times it's wrong. I can predict the 0z run with 90% accuracy....it will move west but not enough to make anyone happy west of the bay. Then if all other 0z guidance looks better or holds then 6z will be another increment better but not enough. Lastly, all guidance can show decent solutions at 24-36 hours and it will FINALLY cave. Or other guidance will move east and make the gfs look smarter than it is. Lol. What we're seeing now is as predictable as the sunrise. Expand Bingo. These are exactly my thoughts. Sure it’ll creep West, but I think most of us long timers know how this movie ends. I’ll be the first to hope I’m wrong af. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:39 PM, stormtracker said: Nah, if i was trying to do that, you’d know for sure. I was just asking why the congrats already since there hasn’t been a storm yet or any *real* changes as of late. Sure, it’s moving west, but outside of the eastern shore, we’re still smoking cirrus on the big three models. I want the storm as much as you do, I just try to be grounded and realistic about. Maybe 0z will be..... Expand This. The only time I'll get excited for my yard is when all 3 globals show something other than no snow. The range of soltuions is still pretty far away from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:21 PM, Climate175 said: If the 18z GFS ensembles shift west more, could that be a foreshadowing of the 00z GFS op? Expand Others may disagree, but I'd say yes. Fwiw, the 18z GGEM looks worse than 12z. Weaker and more eastern low. Accumulation panels aren't out yet, but I expect them to be down, and nothing like the 18z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:42 PM, cae said: Others may disagree, but I'd say yes. Fwiw, the 18z GGEM looks worse than 12z. Weaker and more eastern low. Accumulation panels aren't out yet, but I expect them to be down, and nothing like the 18z RGEM. Expand There's 4 GGEM runs a day? I thought it only ran at 00z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:42 PM, Bob Chill said: This. The only time I'll get excited for my yard is when all 3 globals show something other than no snow. The range of soltuions is still pretty far away from that. Expand Basically the same thing I was trying to say when I got told I was being negative. Until the big dogs bite on this storm, best to temper expectations. That's all. You just said it better. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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