showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Pulling the discussion of the possible coastal storm around the 4th out of the long range thread and devoting a separate thread to it. This should effectively kill our snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 We all need a little hope. Q: Are all of the chess pieces in play? Nothing is still out in the Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 When will the vort’s be better sampled, by the 12z run or the 0z run today/tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 1:25 PM, MD Mad Man said: We all need a little hope. Q: Are all of the chess pieces in play? Nothing is still out in the Pacific? Expand On 1/1/2018 at 1:26 PM, BlueDXer75 said: When will the vort’s be better sampled, by the 12z run or the 0z run today/tonight? Expand Southern piece is already in play(Canadian/Us border) and the initial NS is just entering the Pacific NW. The followup NS stream energy is still south of the Aleutians and that won't be hitting land until 24-36 hours from now. That, in my mind, will probably be the key piece. Even on land that thing will be flying so how that interacts with the initial NS energy and the southern energy probably won't be decided till even later as just a few hours difference on speed and location could have very meaningful impacts to the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 1:25 PM, MD Mad Man said: We all need a little hope. Q: Are all of the chess pieces in play? Nothing is still out in the Pacific? Expand Pieces are all on the table. Comes down to interplay now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 1:41 PM, showmethesnow said: Southern piece is already in play(Canadian/Us border) and the initial NS is just entering the Pacific NW. The followup NS stream energy is still south of the Aleutians and that won't be hitting land until 24-36 hours from now. That, in my mind, will probably be the key piece. Even on land that thing will be flying so how that interacts with the initial NS energy and the southern energy probably won't be decided till even later as just a few hours difference on speed and location could have very meaningful impacts to the final solution. Expand Thanks for the explanation! Happy New Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I am sure we are all hoping for a shift west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 New Srefs literally just out now brings the .25" line over I95 and has the .5 line only about 30? miles east of that. There's your early model hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I think there is a window for 12z models to back off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 1:46 PM, mitchnick said: New Srefs literally just out mow brings the .25" line over I95 and has the .5 line only about 30? miles east of that. There's your early model hope! Expand I’m glad we went ahead and made a thread. This should be a fun storm to track with all the moving parts etc even if we don’t get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 1:56 PM, losetoa6 said: Sref mean slp...leaning West Expand Nice block to the NE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I love y’all, but when you’re hanging your hopes on srefs, you may wanna have limited hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 1:56 PM, losetoa6 said: Sref mean slp...leaning West Expand Mean qpf at DCA is .27 and mean snowfall just under 4 inches. Nice shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 1:58 PM, mappy said: I love y’all, but when you’re hanging your hopes on srefs, you may wanna have limited hopes. Expand Or plenty of booze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 These differences could be big but the NAM sometimes trends back to even, at 21 much more digging/sw with the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 2:00 PM, showmethesnow said: Or plenty of booze. Expand check! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 1:58 PM, mappy said: I love y’all, but when you’re hanging your hopes on srefs, you may wanna have limited hopes. Expand Euro and Canadian get snow to the western shore of the bay as well! Its early on but nam looks slightly better at 500mb. Further west with the energy. NS spreading up. It’s encouraging to see the nam continue to improve at h5 from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Much better look NAM at 27hr. about as big of a trend as you'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The SREFs screwed us on Boxing Day, too. They insisted we'd get .5 liquid right up until the end after the other models bailed. Just FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 2:09 PM, PhineasC said: The SREFs screwed us on Boxing Day, too. They insisted we'd get .5 liquid right up until the end after the other models bailed. Just FYI. Expand I am pretty confident the SREFs screwed us on every bust we have had by providing false hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 2:09 PM, PhineasC said: The SREFs screwed us on Boxing Day, too. They insisted we'd get .5 liquid right up until the end after the other models bailed. Just FYI. Expand You're right. It's a terrible tool for a forecast if taken literally. It can be used wih extreme caution to spot trends though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This storm is fun if you don't have a preconceived thought on the outcome. I'm not smart enough to know why or how these slight changes are happening...heck even IF changes are happening but I know this thing had a crazy back that ass up scenario, a ukie hug the coast Bomb a congrats Africa run and what sure seems like a watch your back rehobeth vibe. I'm not expecting anything back here but that doesn't mean this hasn't been interesting as long as you can let go of the it's not happening you guys are silly mindset. My thoughts....Happy New Year folks...back to work tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 Not sure I like where the NS is depicted. We are seeing it in front of the SS energy now at 36 hr. We really need to see it drop down behind the southern piece to get a good phase which is hard to do from where it is now. Maybe it will adjust at later panels.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 2:16 PM, showmethesnow said: Not sure I like where the NS is depicted. We are seeing it in front of the SS energy now at 36 hr. We really need to see it drop down behind the southern piece to get a good phase which is hard to do from where it is now. Maybe it will adjust at later panels.. Expand Yeah, I thought the same at 39. NS is stightly NW of last run and not a good location right now. Might change in future panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Doesn't it look similar to 6z at hour 51 or did I have too much Crown Royal last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Nam at 51 hours starting to look a little more like Jan 2000. Here's the radar from 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 2:30 PM, Negnao said: Nam at 51 hours starting to look a little more like Jan 2000. Here's the radar from 2000 Expand A bit only this is further east. It would need to head due north from there. Tall order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 2:34 PM, losetoa6 said: Nam continues to improve at h5 fwiw Expand What kind of improvements are you seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 Haven't looked at the surface yet but going by the 500 and 700mb the low should be closer to the coast with a more northerly component to its track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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