January Banter String

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, MDstorm said:

It may be too early to fold, but it is  kind of sad that in the peak of climo (snow-wise), the hottest topic in this forum is about Ji.

ETA:  no offense , Ji.

trust me, i know. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

It's dying.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

how hard is it to stop posting and take your crap out of a perfectly good thread and post it in the correct one. stop trying to get the last word. stop trying to prove everyone else wrong. having to moderate grown adults because they can't moderate themselves is quite frankly annoying and tiresome. 

thats really all were asking.  He admitted that he wont post in banter cause it wouldnt cause a stir and goes untouched.....yet newbies (myself likely included) bump the siderails comparitevly speaking, and we get the hand slap.  if it were once in a while then I guess ISO's "charm" assesment is ok, but thats not the case.  Whether the mods realize it or not, some good posters are souring, and thats why I'm speaking up.  

[pasnownut]

10 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

It's dying.

Thats not good, but not the end all to me.  MJO whether strong signal or weak, gets a little too much consideration, as other indicies can offset a less than stong look in 8/1/2.

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

It's dying.

You're confusing Day 14-15 of a 15 day forecast with the current time.  At the moment, the wave is still strengthening and just entering Phase 6.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I refuse to ignore NWP success rate acceleration!

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I refuse to ignore NWP success rate acceleration!

could die, but your using one piece of guidance to make that assessment when there are some that still head towards phase 8. Additionally the bias lately has been to erroneously kill the mjo wave after day 10.  So while I accept there is a chance that is right, you seem to be using that one projection to claim it is probably going to die in 7 and I would not go that far.  

Additionally I find it "odd" that when you post a model run in the threads its usually the worst one of whatever suite we are discussing.  There might be 5 runs showing 1" and you will post the one that shows nothing.  That seems like you have a bias.  When I discuss the guidance I talk about EVERYTHING.  The good and the bad.  This morning I went over the GEFS which were not so good, and I talked about the EPS which were weenieish.  But for whatever reason even bringing up the good guidance makes me a weenie with some people who only want to talk about and see the bad stuff.  

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Nothing to do with the MJO.  I was cross-referencing banter where it belongs.

I meant to reply to your post of the MJO chart...my points are the same.  I also didn't mean to imply you shouldn't have posted it.  I have no problem with you posting and it was in banter...but I still don't agree with the implication the MJO is likely to die in 7 and my points about you usually posting only the bad guidance in a given run are still valid. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

could die, but your using one piece of guidance to make that assessment when there are some that still head towards phase 8. Additionally the bias lately has been to erroneously kill the mjo wave after day 10.  So while I accept there is a chance that is right, you seem to be using that one projection to claim it is probably going to die in 7 and I would not go that far.  

Additionally I find it "odd" that when you post a model run in the threads its usually the worst one of whatever suite we are discussing.  There might be 5 runs showing 1" and you will post the one that shows nothing.  That seems like you have a bias.  When I discuss the guidance I talk about EVERYTHING.  The good and the bad.  This morning I went over the GEFS which were not so good, and I talked about the EPS which were weenieish.  But for whatever reason even bringing up the good guidance makes me a weenie with some people who only want to talk about and see the bad stuff.  

1. I agree

2. I post the most recent run I can find that I feel provides the most verifiable resolution.  In this case, it's the 3km NAM nest.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

1. I agree

2. I post the most recent run I can find that I feel provides the most verifiable resolution.  In this case, it's the 3km NAM nest.

I have no problem with you posting that, I was just making an observation that you seem to always go with the worst case scenario.  For instance the 3k NAM which might have been the absolute worst run of the 12z suite so far for QPF tonight/tomorrow.  It might work out and does way too often lately UGH, but seems you always default to the worst thing you can find.  You have every right to do that...just pointing it out.  Thats all.  

I know things have been touchy and I totally went off on a few people who were being just flat out wrong with facts.  I want to be clear I am not doing that with you, just pointing out a trend I have noticed.  Thats all.  

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I'd like to share an inspirational quote that was collectively designed by about 15 people while I was at the hospital in December. Each person provided 1-3 words sequentially.

"The end to our troubled past can really change things for the better!  Certainly, the worst or the best cannot be decided with thoughts, only actions.  We only control ourselves, so we decide our future!"

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

BTRWx, I love that quote. It's so true. 

Keeping with the positive tone there, I'm stoked to tell you all that I've been invited to participate in an emerging leaders workshop out in Colorado this winter. I'll be learning how to become a more effective leader with a small group from across the country using historical examples of leadership during times of crisis. 

 

That sounds really cool!  When you return, share some the skills with the forums!

[nw baltimore wx]

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

BTRWx, I love that quote. It's so true. 

Keeping with the positive tone there, I'm stoked to tell you all that I've been invited to participate in an emerging leaders workshop out in Colorado this winter. I'll be learning how to become a more effective leader with a small group from across the country using historical examples of leadership during times of crisis. 

You'll be able to do a case study of this joint.

[George BM]

8 hours ago, isohume said:

That's a snow sounding. There is no supercooled water in that sounding since ice nuclei are present within the favored crystal growth layer (-12C to -20C).     

Thank you. I just read a bit of info on it myself as well (Ice Multiplication). I hope I'm not being too pushy but what WOULD a graupel sounding look like?

[87storms]

never was a fan of ignoring (here) or muting (twitter).  haven't done it.  even on instagram and twitter, if some rando follows me i'll just block then unblock so it removes them lol.  though i will say i did unfollow everyone on fb for the sake of just using it as a page/group source and to get updates on people when i want them instead of having their lives thrown in my face every time i log in (part of the culture of that site).  i may start to follow people back again, but just needed a break from that.

re this strange hobby...i think it's a perfect storm, so to speak, of being analytical, liking the actual snow part, and having absolutely no control over the outcome that draws a select group to it.  it's probably not as strange as we think unless it gets in the way of your daily functioning (minus the big storms because that's acceptable).  

[isohume]

3 hours ago, George BM said:

Thank you. I just read a bit of info on it myself as well (Ice Multiplication). I hope I'm not being too pushy but what WOULD a graupel sounding look like?

Youre not being pushy. A graupel sounding would look similar to a sleet sounding, but with dry air aloft, like a tstm sounding. The dry air aloft would not activate ice nuclei, so the lower cloud would have supercooled droplets since large dendritic flakes are not present. Dendritic flakes grow at the expense of supercooled droplets.  So, any small ice crystals that form in the shallow moist layer above, falling through the supercooled region, would become coated and fall as graupel or freezing drizzle if the supercooled droplets fall on their own. 

A grauple sounding would look something like this...

[NorthArlington101]

I’ve set an alarm to wake myself up for the snow squall. Desperate times...

[Cobalt]

Waiting for this better pattern in February wouldn't be so difficult if I didn't have a canker sore the size of a frisbee that's been bugging me for the past 3 days.

Does anyone know any home remedies for canker sores? I tried gurgling salt water, but it hasn't seemed to help. 

[Bob Chill]

13 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Waiting for this better pattern in February wouldn't be so difficult if I didn't have a canker sore the size of a frisbee that's been bugging me for the past 3 days.

Does anyone know any home remedies for canker sores? I tried gurgling salt water, but it hasn't seemed to help. 

A hammer fixes everything. Just hit your thumb with a hammer really hard and you'll forget all about that canker. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A hammer fixes everything. Just hit your thumb with a hammer really hard and you'll forget all about that canker. 

Man, that's just cruel.

[WVclimo]

I performed the same analysis of the past 30 years that PSUHoffman had calculated for DCA for the snow climo in my part of the world.  It shows about 4 seasons per decade with low totals.  Another 3 per decade on average are "blockbusters".  And the remainder, about 3 per decade, are within striking distance of the long-term average of 26.5"

In the last 30 years: the 12 low-total seasons (40%) averaged around 11", another 9 seasons (30%) average about 24" and there are 9 great years (30%) averaging 50".  Only 5 out of 30 finished with single digit totals like this year has had so far.

Not as bleak as the DC stats, but really points out what a low aberration this year's 2.9" here has been (albeit with Feb and March still ahead.)  Need a good finish to keep this one out of the bottom 15% of the barrel.

1988-89: 10.5"
1989-90:   7.4"
1990-91: 20.6"
1991-92:   9.5"
1992-93: 43.9"
1993-94: 39.5"
1994-95: 10.0"
1995-96: 72.9"
1996-97: 26.4"
1997-98: 22.5"

1998-99: 34.7"
1999-00: 23.4"
2000-01: 22.3"
2001-02:   4.9"
2002-03: 53.2"
2003-04: 28.2"
2004-05: 14.3"
2005-06: 17.3"
2006-07: 26.5"
2007-08: 15.1"

2008-09:   5.1"
2009-10: 82.9"
2010-11: 20.3"
2011-12:   8.4"
2012-13: 23.4"
2013-14: 52.4"
2014-15: 36.7"
2015-16: 40.8"
2016-17: 13.3”
2017-18:   2.9"

 

[George BM]

28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

February 14, 2015 was one of the greatest wx events I’ve ever seen. You might be giving this weakling cousin eight times removed too much credit. 

 

That day remains one of, if not, my favorite winter weather days. It was like tracking severe and snow at once and the rates were the heaviest I'd seen in my life. They had to have been 4"/hr at one point. The ONLY thing missing for me was lightning. There were some reports of thundersnow (not sure whether confirmed or not) around the area though.

I'd love me a Winter Storm Nemo. Just VD 2015-like conditions for hours on end. #SnowHeaven  

 

[SteveVa]

I see more "you've chosen to ignore content by Ji" messages in the Feb disco thread than actual posts 

[87storms]

6 minutes ago, George BM said:

That day remains one of, if not, my favorite winter weather days. It was like tracking severe and snow at the same time and the rates were the heaviest I'd seen in my life. They had to have been 4"/hr at one point. The ONLY thing missing for me was lightning. There were some reports of thundersnow (not sure whether confirmed or not) around the area though.

I'd love me a Winter Storm Nemo. Just VD 2015-like conditions for hours on end. #SnowHeaven  

 

That was a classic squall and one of, if not the, best one I’ve seen here. It was like what you’d probably see in a lake effect snow band.

[Cobalt]

6 minutes ago, 87storms said:

That was a classic squall and one of, if not the, best one I’ve seen here. It was like what you’d probably see in a lake effect snow band.

Really surprised we didn't lose power during that squall. Heck, we lost power during the clipper that could a month prior 

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

<Just because it can be worse doesn’t mean this hasn’t been a crap winter so far>

<stepping back out now so as not to violate the official it’s not so bad views>

It's totally acceptable to think this is a crap winter so long as you realize the reality that a crap winter is our truth 70% of the time.  It's the notion that this is abnormal for here that is nonsense. 

I don't want things to swing from the hot mess it was becoming to uptight either. You know until very recently I never came down on the side of censorship but then things went off the rails when some started attacking legit analysis because they just wanted everyone to share in their emotional b!tch fest and whining. I don't mind dissenting views. I value them. And occasional somewhat ancillary comments are ok. But when the thread became 90% "why are we even looking at this" "your wasting your time". "We suck it's never gonna snow" I was like enough. 

But I hope my backlash and rants don't push things too far and stifle healthy expression either. People just need to use some moderation imo. 

[showmethesnow]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's totally acceptable to think this is a crap winter so long as you realize the reality that a crap winter is our truth 70% of the time.  It's the notion that this is abnormal for here that is nonsense. 

I don't want things to swing from the hot mess it was becoming to uptight either. You know until very recently I never came down on the side of censorship but then things went off the rails when some started attacking legit analysis because they just wanted everyone to share in their emotional b!tch fest and whining. I don't mind dissenting views. I value them. And occasional somewhat ancillary comments are ok. But when the thread became 90% "why are we even looking at this" "your wasting your time". "We suck it's never gonna snow" I was like enough. 

But I hope my backlash and rants don't push things too far and stifle healthy expression either. People just need to use some moderation imo. 

Have to laugh. Now we are seeing bitching and 'woe is me' because many got sick of their nonstop bitching and complaining about the lack of snow in the first place. Some people just thrive on being miserable and making everyone else around them miserable as well. And though it seems some don't wish to acknowledge it to themselves, the crap was well beyond out of control. Now if some could just learn some self-moderation we wouldn't be sitting where we are at this time. But no, now we are going to have to deal with their self pity because they refuse to see the absurdity of their actions. 

[North Balti Zen]

It’s going too far. It feels like the official line is you have to like it. Climo for my area is more that DCA. I am at six inches basically on six “events”. That blows chunks. But it has become not okay to have that opinion basically. Especially when super excellent posters (seriously) like psu, bob, and show me constantly bang that this has been perfectly okay as if that’s the only valid opinion. We are now over two years since a legit warning level event. So, no, forgive me for not high fiving over every flurry and going to “at least it isn’t last year”...

and I’ve stayed and stay for the most part out if the long range threads but at this point when the editorializing for “this has been fine at least is isn’t last year “ seems to permeate every other post it is nails on a chalkboard too. 

I do hope we are indeed entering a period with some chances to get at least more than an inch or two in an event.

 

[North Balti Zen]

Oh, and show me, if that “some people just thrive on  being miserable” was aimed at me for some innocuous pushback I am out of here. Enjoy policing and shaping everyone’s thoughts to make them conform. When I thought I rather gently stepped into the long range thread to dissent last night I did so minimally, well between runs, and after several propaganda posts. And then I stepped out. Apologies if that was also not ok. I’m done.

[Jebman]

I am still happy that i have had 4 inches so far this winter. Last winter, it was only 2 inches.

We still have good snow chances in Feb and in March.

We are still gonna get shellacked by massive snow this winter!