January Banter String

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

I am profoundly relieved that i am not the only 53 year old who stays up all night and watches it snow.

I thought I was going to have to seek help.

It's a harmless and strange hobby. There are a lot of us but there is no logical explanation. Thank god my wife is totally cool with it. It's not the easiest thing to explain to the unafflicted without sounding crazy. 

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

I am headed to Summit County in a couple weeks, so I shall get my 'fix'.  Much like you, I had the 'bug' from day one it seems. I can remember as early as 6, 7 8 years old getting up after parents had gone to bed and sitting in the big front window watching it snow for hours at night. Heck, I'm 53 and still stay up and watch it snow lol.

It has been a rough winter here, but you have to take the good with the bad, that is what makes averages......

I love that area. What part?  I tended to stay in Frisco since it was a nice town, economical and central so quick shots to Breckinridge, Copper, A-basin, and Vail.  Wife loves it there too. We're waiting until the kids are a bit older before heading out there again.  Hope you have a great time. 

[North Balti Zen]

Here’s a link if anyone is intrigued by the Blackwater Falls sled run discussion. Three hour drive from Baltimore is a long haul if wanting to do it in a day, but it does look like tremendous fun:

https://www.highland-outdoors.com/blackwater-falls-sled-park/

[ATreglown]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a harmless and strange hobby. There are a lot of us but there is no logical explanation. Thank god my wife is totally cool with it. It's not the easiest thing to explain to the unafflicted without sounding crazy. 

I am a 47 year young female and married for 25 years , and there is not a snow that I do not stay up for!!  I love the flakes falling, especially during the night hours when most are asleep. I live in the back roads, country style, and there is nothing like it. Total silence, not even a bird chirping, a wood pecker, pecking, or sounds of deer roaming through the woods!! Just a beautiful silence that I so appreciate!! It is just a beautiful white "quiet" that only a late night, cold, winter night can bring. Bob, maybe you can let her see my post, she just may understand!! My hubby loves music and plays guitar hours on weekends. But, he always lets me have my snow days!!

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I love that area. What part?  I tended to stay in Frisco since it was a nice town, economical and central so quick shots to Breckinridge, Copper, A-basin, and Vail.  Wife loves it there too. We're waiting until the kids are a bit older before heading out there again.  Hope you have a great time. 

Son lives in Dillon, other side of the lake. It is a beautiful part of the country, to say the least.

 

[isohume]

11 hours ago, George BM said:

That is true. But within the 950-800mb layer above that saturated with a bit of lift and temps being between 0 and -10*C any precip that forms would be supercooled water droplets. So I would think that any snowflakes developing in the favorable layer above would fall into the supercooled water droplets layer and, therefore, have ice accrete on them making them rimmed.   

That's a snow sounding. There is no supercooled water in that sounding since ice nuclei are present within the favored crystal growth layer (-12C to -20C).     

[H2O]

lol @ people defending Ji's antics.  Oh he's funny is what they say.  Nobody can troll like Ji while making wx posts.  And let's be honest, he is protected here.  Long time members get that.  He isn't treated like others and that is obvious.

But it gets annoying.  

Sure the running gag around here is Ji canceling winter in April or any other month you choose.  But when winter comes and every model run that doesn't show snow has a "worst winter ever" post from him its nails on a chalkboard.  But it gets tolerated cause he makes a zing or two.  And i don't get that argument that he posts opposing views to all the sunshine and rainbows posts from bob or PSU.  Its not an opposing view to say "cancel, disaster, stupid models, weather hates me"

I'll put it this way.  We all all here for the office holiday party.  Every year we all get together to hang, drink, eat and talk about family, friends, and what the future holds.  But there's this guy from accounting.  Throckmorton.  He's the guy who always comes, makes the party all about him and is the loudest.  He usually drinks and then starts blurting things out loud.  Some of its funny.  but after a while it gets annoying.  He's there every time.  And because he's been there 10 years people think he is untouchable.  The bosses tolerate him cause the numbers always add up. The bad part is this.  Because Throckmorton is tolerated some of the new hires see this and think "hey, its ok to do the same thing"  and they do.  After a while, people leave the party early while middle level managers all try to say things will get better but knowing their hands are tied.  

Then what happens is that every year less and less people come to the party cause they know Throckmorton and his buddies will be there.  Might as well stay at home than deal with the headache.

[mappy]

that's a nice analogy, waterboy. a little long, but nice none the less. 

ji will be ji and eventually someone will step up and start removing his posts. 

[H2O]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

that's a nice analogy, waterboy. a little long, but nice none the less. 

ji will be ji and eventually someone will step up and start removing his posts. 

I liked typing Throckmorton

[mappy]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

I liked typing Throckmorton

where did you come up with that? lol

[H2O]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

where did you come up with that? lol

It was a popular name in the 1800s when I was growing up

[North Balti Zen]

9 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Here’s a link if anyone is intrigued by the Blackwater Falls sled run discussion. Three hour drive from Baltimore is a long haul if wanting to do it in a day, but it does look like tremendous fun:

https://www.highland-outdoors.com/blackwater-falls-sled-park/

Throckmorton. That is fun.

I think I will do the sled thing in two weeks. That really does look fantastic. Thanks for the heads up last page from whomever that was - NPZ I think.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

It was a popular name in the 1800s when I was growing up

crying laugh titled sideways

[vastateofmind]

About an hour ago, @losetoa6 posted in the Jan 29/30 flurries topic the map for LWX's most likely probabilistic snowfall found at http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter . From those who may be in the know -- what has reception to these maps/products  been from its intended audience, which (after reviewing the background document) seems to be aimed primarily at emergency managers and decision support services? Customer comment period ran from 12/1/16 to 4/30/17. I found myself looking at those map products more often last year...the most likely map seems to often verify...but wondered how useful they've been for emergency managers.

[isohume]

Here's my serious take on Ji. If folks don't like his posts, place him on ignore. That way, their weenie sensibilities can remain unaltered and unencumbered. 

Personally I feel posts like his have always been a part of the board's charm. They're actually no different than the dreary model chasing posts or someone saying "looks like an active pattern could be in the works sometime within the next 3 weeks". 

[isohume]

Just now, vastateofmind said:

About an hour ago, @losetoa6 posted in the Jan 29/30 flurries topic the map for LWX's most likely probabilistic snowfall found at http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter . From those who may be in the know -- what has reception to these maps/products  been from its intended audience, which (after reviewing the background document) seems to be aimed primarily at emergency managers and decision support services? Customer comment period ran from 12/1/16 to 4/30/17. I found myself looking at those map products more often last year...the most likely map seems to often verify...but wondered how useful they've been for emergency managers.

Emergency managers really like them. They always have to plan for the worst case scenario. 

[mattie g]

25 minutes ago, mappy said:

that's a nice analogy, waterboy. a little long, but nice none the less. 

ji will be ji and eventually someone will step up and start removing his posts. 

In the meantime, those of us who can should put him on ignore. I've been in that camp for years now, but I still see his posts when people quote him. That doesn't remove the issue altogether, of course, because you have your lurkers who aren't able to ignore him, so they have to put up with the same crap over and over again.

Looking forward to spring when he and his ilk disappear for another six months.

[vastateofmind]

58 minutes ago, isohume said:

Here's my serious take on Ji. If folks don't like his posts, place him on ignore. That way, their weenie sensibilities can remain unaltered and unencumbered. 

Personally I feel posts like his have always been a part of the board's charm. They're actually no different than the dreary model chasing posts or someone saying "looks like an active pattern could be in the works sometime within the next 3 weeks". 

Over the years, regardless of profile pics and other identifying whatnot, I've attached personalities of a couple folks who post with a certain tone to cartoon characters. @Ji is Bad-Luck Schleprock from the teenage Pebbles & Bamm Bamm show. And @Jebman? I can't help but think that guy looks and sounds like Shaggy from Scooby-Doo.

Also, since he posted right before me -- @mattie g can continue to change up his profile avatar, but he'll always and forever be "dancing banana guy" to me.

[87storms]

it's all about moderation, not just literally...i mean in the "literal" figurative sense.  i don't even know if that makes sense, but my point is that it's probably ok to complain once or twice in a discussion thread per page, otherwise it's best to keep it on the DL.  it's a forecasting/discussion page for a reason.

[psuhoffman]

40 minutes ago, isohume said:

Here's my serious take on Ji. If folks don't like his posts, place him on ignore. That way, their weenie sensibilities can remain unaltered and unencumbered. 

Personally I feel posts like his have always been a part of the board's charm. They're actually no different than the dreary model chasing posts or someone saying "looks like an active pattern could be in the works sometime within the next 3 weeks". 

It was funny and charming when it was a few posts per page, but lately it has become the majority and then it discourages good analysis and the thread that is supposed to be about long range discussion becomes banter.  Until this year I have NEVER advocated cencorship, I was always on the side of let it go, its not that bad, but something has changed this year.  I don't know why but the percentage of posts that are just...well not productive to say it nicely has gone way way way up to the point that its making the discussion threads a mess and sometimes I and others even think twice posting something because if its good we get attacked with "yea just like last time and its gonna fail" crap and if its bad we add to the pile on of whining and complaining and so sometimes we just say forget it.  And if that continues then the whole discussion dies and the analysis thread becomes another banter thread.  

And that is the issue. we have a banter thread and a panic thread.  So no one is saying Ji cant have his meltdowns or complain and people cant just bring up random throughts but we have two threads devoted to that so why is it too much to ask they post in there.  Ji has admitted the reason he doesnt is he wants us all to have to read his whining and complaining and not as many people read the panic room.  But thats because he and others like him arent posting in it so duh no one reads it.  Its circular thinking.  So the problem is not that they are posting that stuff, its that they are posting that stuff in the wrong place.  We dont even need to delete the posts just move them to banter or panic room and they are totally fine but sholdnt it be acceptable for those of us that want to just analyze the guidance to have a place to do that without 500 posts a day of "this sucks, its never gonna snow, we are gonna get screwed again" or worst of all the people that literally post everyday in the LONG RANGE THREAD that we shouldnt bother talking about long range stuff.  UGH

[mappy]

On 1/18/2018 at 12:09 PM, mappy said:

can people at least be on tilt in the right threads? here or Panic Room. PLEASE. 

 

[clskinsfan]

I drove through a few sleet pellets this morning on the way to work. That is what I am relegated to being excited about at this point. This 2 year stretch out here is probably the worst of my lifetime. 

[87storms]

sinus colds are lame.  i also forgot how much acetaminophen makes me sweat.  felt like i had just run 2 hours of hoops at a local gym without any subs.

[smokeybandit]

So basically, if we get an inch combined this week, we should consider it a good week.

What a winter!

[isohume]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was funny and charming when it was a few posts per page, but lately it has become the majority and then it discourages good analysis and the thread that is supposed to be about long range discussion becomes banter.  Until this year I have NEVER advocated cencorship, I was always on the side of let it go, its not that bad, but something has changed this year.  I don't know why but the percentage of posts that are just...well not productive to say it nicely has gone way way way up to the point that its making the discussion threads a mess and sometimes I and others even think twice posting something because if its good we get attacked with "yea just like last time and its gonna fail" crap and if its bad we add to the pile on of whining and complaining and so sometimes we just say forget it.  And if that continues then the whole discussion dies and the analysis thread becomes another banter thread.  

And that is the issue. we have a banter thread and a panic thread.  So no one is saying Ji cant have his meltdowns or complain and people cant just bring up random throughts but we have two threads devoted to that so why is it too much to ask they post in there.  Ji has admitted the reason he doesnt is he wants us all to have to read his whining and complaining and not as many people read the panic room.  But thats because he and others like him arent posting in it so duh no one reads it.  Its circular thinking.  So the problem is not that they are posting that stuff, its that they are posting that stuff in the wrong place.  We dont even need to delete the posts just move them to banter or panic room and they are totally fine but sholdnt it be acceptable for those of us that want to just analyze the guidance to have a place to do that without 500 posts a day of "this sucks, its never gonna snow, we are gonna get screwed again" or worst of all the people that literally post everyday in the LONG RANGE THREAD that we shouldnt bother talking about long range stuff.  UGH

I agree, they should be in banter. Although there was always some leeway when not in storm mode in the past. That policy hasn't been enforced consistently and mods break the rules themselves with banter in the disco threads. So, other folks probably don't know what/when they can or can't post non-value remarks. 

[mappy]

how hard is it to stop posting and take your crap out of a perfectly good thread and post it in the correct one. stop trying to get the last word. stop trying to prove everyone else wrong. having to moderate grown adults because they can't moderate themselves is quite frankly annoying and tiresome. 

[RevWarReenactor]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

how hard is it to stop posting and take your crap out of a perfectly good thread and post it in the correct one. stop trying to get the last word. stop trying to prove everyone else wrong. having to moderate grown adults because they can't moderate themselves is quite frankly annoying and tiresome. 

Nothing wrong with the discussion in my opinion.  It wasn't a model thread.

I think we've had a break thru. The averages are wrong, as PSU pointed out. 17-23 inches of snowfall is not average for DC. 14 inches or perhaps less.

Now we can move forward with setting better expectations on our winters here. But I think maybe the NWS should seriously consider revising the averages. It would lead to less confusion and better ideas of what is normal.

[mappy]

Just now, Mdecoy said:

Nothing wrong with the discussion in my opinion.  It wasn't a model thread.

I think we've had a break thru. The averages are wrong, as PSU pointed out. 17-23 inches of snowfall is not average for DC. 14 inches or perhaps less.

Now we can move forward with setting better expectations on our winters here. But I think maybe the NWS should seriously consider revising the averages. It would lead to less confusion and better ideas of what is normal.

Its a PSA thread, where Bob asked people to dial it back and moderate themselves, yet you felt the need to crap it up anyways with your complaining about averages and climo. 

I think instead of crapping up every one of the threads here with whining about DC, a place you don't even remotely live near, and how its climo is wrong, you can reach out to NWS yourself and tell them they are wrong. I'm frankly tired of reading about it. 

[H2O]

“We”?

the only one who was wrong from the start on what is avg snow here was you, captain sewsalot

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Oh I totally get that 09/10 is like a 1 in 200 year winter.

But its basic math. If 18 is average, and we have had an average of 13 inches in the last 7 winter, (not even counting the crap this year). That is with that over rated blizzard.

That is BELOW AVERAGE. So the calls of "oh things are record breaking and stuff....." Is just not accurate. It can be spun however it wants to be spun up, the math doesn't lie.

DC average is 14.1" over the last 30 years NOT 18"

You just called what was the single largest snowfall on record for several of our local locations and a top 3 for just about 99% here an "over rated blizzard"

I posted the entire last 30 years of snowfall data...you are totally dealing in anecdotes and your feelings then talking about math.  

Again your expectations are not in line with climo reality here.  You are taking a crap on two years that ONLY 4/30 were better.  That means you will be unhappy and a miserable whining complaining mess 87 percent of the time.  

AND one last time because this is the part you really really really dont seem to get... your 18" bar... (and you even took a crap on an 18 and 22" year so even that seems to be a lie) ONLY 4/30 years were above that.  If you set your bar at 18" to be happy on average you will be unhappy 26 out of 30 years.  You will be whining and acting like we are having a crappy awful year 26/30 years.  26/30 years arent crappy, they are average...you just wont accept that.  Thats the MATH... deal with it.