January Banter String

[Herb@MAWS]

I'm just happy to see low clouds coming from the N and NE this afternoon.

[87storms]

a terps win today and some positive snow trends would make for a strong day.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I wonder why long term models have such a bias with snow? We average like 20". 

[psuhoffman]

41 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I wonder why long term models have such a bias with snow? We average like 20". 

A lot is perception bias. For example...The gfs runs 4 times a day. If 3 runs don't have a long range storm and one does, it's not actually predicting a storm. Due to variability every few runs is naturally going to show snow in winter. But we get excited and remember the run that had snow even when most did not. Same with ensembles. If the mean is 3" but from 40% that show snow and 60% don't it's not predicting 3". The mean is not a prediction. The majority are saying no snow.  But we see the 3" mean and think bust when it doesn't happen. 

Now right now the guidance is saying it should snow. I'm leery of high means from multiple threats as that can be a false positive but they are indicating it should snow in the next 2 weeks so if it doesn't this would be fair to say bust. But often we call bust when it isn't one. 

[fourseasons]

Dear NHL,

Great idea for the all-star game!  The teams are dressed by division and one is dressed in all-white uniforms!

[87storms]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

A lot is perception bias. For example...The gfs runs 4 times a day. If 3 runs don't have a long range storm and one does, it's not actually predicting a storm. Due to variability every few runs is naturally going to show snow in winter. But we get excited and remember the run that had snow even when most did not. Same with ensembles. If the mean is 3" but from 40% that show snow and 60% don't it's not predicting 3". The mean is not a prediction. The majority are saying no snow.  But we see the 3" mean and think bust when it doesn't happen. 

Now right now the guidance is saying it should snow. I'm leery of high means from multiple threats as that can be a false positive but they are indicating it should snow in the next 2 weeks so if it doesn't this would be fair to say bust. But often we call bust when it isn't one. 

he does make a valid point, though.  it's somewhat interesting that even the minority of models would show snow fairly often (relatively speaking) in the long range when in reality the cities average only 15-20" a year.  we do digital snow pretty well here, for whatever reasons.  could also be that maybe the mountains and other deterrents have less of an impact in the long range, but as we get closer to the event the models key in on those factors more.

[George BM]

I am no expert at this stuff but wouldn't the sounding below mean graupel or at least rimmed snowflakes is/are the precip-type reaching the ground? The sounding shows the strongest lift being in the layer of the atmosphere where it is below freezing but not cold enough for developing water droplets to freeze unless they make contact with a surface, which in this case would be snowflakes from above, ergo forming ice on the snowflakes making them "Graupel". 

 

[WeathermanB]

We gonna stop downcasting this winter's snows constantly? People don't realize you are also whining and complaining by downcasting the snowfalls because a model run shows ridiculous snow amounts, yet you complain that a model run(s) shows big snowfall totals for your area but it doesn't turn out like it does on the models and you still complain (ex. forecasted 12'', but you only get 1'' of sleet and 60 degree temps afterwards).

How misguided.

I'm mad because the ECMWF shows mainly rain now for the February 2 storm and i get no snow. depressing.

[Cobalt]

7 hours ago, WeathermanB said:

 I post evidence when i'm not on the banter strings. But occasionally i do make mistakes, thanks for the feedback. But seriously, the overreactions? they need to stop.

Looking at your posts, you don't. Whatsoever. I'm just about your age, so I can see where some of this is coming from, but you have to understand that wishcasting is not forecasting. Also, I have no idea why you go around into each sub-forum and most stuff centered around your backyard. It makes no sense, and it clutters up their forums. You're technically part of this sub-forum, but you act like you have a home in every part of this country. 

Here's some advice from a weenie to a weenie. Post stuff that adds to the conversation. You don't need a degree in meteorology. You have to also remember that there are lurkers here that don't know an awful lot about weather, but are here to learn, or to know what is happening at range, or a couple days before a storm. Try to post something that is geared towards them. We have the honor of having very knowledgeable folks in this sub-forum that share the same passion as we all do. Make sure you respect those folks, because without them, this forum would be nothing but a bunch of wish casters or people who go down with the ship if they see one operational model that doesn't show snow.

I know what it was like to be a novice to this stuff. I would post stuff about the 240 hour GFS, or make snow predictions without anything to back that up. The problem is, you gotta learn quick. People don't respect you if you persist at wish casting, and I'm sure both you and I have several people who have put us on their ignore lists for that reason. You just have to fix that part. I hope you take this to heart, and I apologize if this seemed like a rude jab at your posts. Just want to make sure you don't become as oblivious to the lack of insight in posts as I was back in November/December of last year. 

[Cobalt]

10 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

We gonna stop downcasting this winter's snows constantly? People don't realize you are also whining and complaining by downcasting the snowfalls because a model run shows ridiculous snow amounts, yet you complain that a model run(s) shows big snowfall totals for your area but it doesn't turn out like it does on the models and you still complain (ex. forecasted 12'', but you only get 1'' of sleet and 60 degree temps afterwards).

How misguided.

I'm mad because the ECMWF shows mainly rain now for the February 2 storm and i get no snow. depressing.

It's not downcasting at all. We've been posting good stuff about models that show snow at day 5 as much as we've posted bad stuff about models that don't show snow at 5 days out. It's just seasonal trends. We see models show a juicy storm at medium-long range, lose it at medium range, and give us a fraction of what we originally saw at short range. Just the way it works in a La Nina winter. Not like the storm is off the table if there's 1 day of bad model runs, but we've seen this so far this year, and I hope we break out of it this February. 

[WeathermanB]

Here to learn, just like everybody is.

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

Here to learn, just like everybody is.

We all our. Even the most experienced folks here don't know everything. Just make sure you don't go around and act like you know everything, or that you can teach the more experience folks stuff they already know. It comes down to reading more and posting less. I used to, and still make some of the same mistakes. Just make sure you learn from them. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 hour ago, George BM said:

I am no expert at this stuff but wouldn't the sounding below mean graupel or at least rimmed snowflakes is/are the precip-type reaching the ground? The sounding shows the strongest lift being in the layer of the atmosphere where it is below freezing but not cold enough for developing water droplets to freeze unless they make contact with a surface, which in this case would be snowflakes from above, ergo forming ice on the snowflakes making them "Graupel". 

 

I would say snow, because the only layer above freezing is near the surface.

[mdhokie]

I dont think we've had an over performing storm in terms of precip yet this winter. Forecast had .5-.75" but all I've gotten is .1. 

[George BM]

46 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I would say snow, because the only layer above freezing is near the surface.

That is true. But within the 950-800mb layer above that saturated with a bit of lift and temps being between 0 and -10*C any precip that forms would be supercooled water droplets. So I would think that any snowflakes developing in the favorable layer above would fall into the supercooled water droplets layer and, therefore, have ice accrete on them making them rimmed.   

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

we really do live in the worst area. Nobody gets teased like us. Some areas like the Carolinas,Richmond,Georgia are 90% out of the chase no matter what.....the problem is...we are always in the game unless its a complete shutout for the East Coast. Meaning that if NY,philly are looking at something, chances are that we are in the game. i dont count Boston. On top of it, we have had epic winters....40 inch storms, 90 inch winters......13-14,14-15 and then January 16 blizzard. This is an area that can get alot of snow. It can trick us into thinking we are a snow town. Many times the 850s are just cold enough for snow...but we dont get the precip. The clippers dry up...the southern storms stay south....the coastals are too far east...Miller B's blast areas just 100 miles north of us. So we have an extremely low ROI because unlike NC and Chester, Va...we are always in the game to be chasing almost everything and yet we almost always fall short..except when we dont. Thats why I am constantly frustrated. I either need to move with Bob to Lake Hartwell or move to a snowier climate. I cant live  here anymore and be healthy snow lover. You guys need to show more symphathy then say Ji is trolling,etc

I understand how you feel.  I really do I am not just saying that.  I felt the same way many times living close to where you do.  And I still get frustrated and way too upset then I should when a storm misses me.  And one thing I did do was to move to the snowiest location in our region.  But I also had to be more realistic with my expectations.  Even here its not going to just snow all the time.  There will be long stretches and fails.  And I need to appreciate when it does snow, and not go crazy when it doesnt.  But you know what climo is.  You know that no matter how good a day 10 model looks the reality is we will miss most storms.  That we will end up with less snow then places to our north.  That most threats we track will end in fail.  If that fact means you will be miserable all the time maybe you really should move. 

I am NOT trying to be cruel I mean it... be honest with yourself about what you need to be happy.  Life's too short to be miserable all the time.  People move to the beach and thats not crazy.  People move to the mountains... if snow is what makes you happy why is moving to where it snows crazy?  But know what is crazy, living somewhere that it doesn't snow much and then getting bent out of shape everytime. 

I found a spot close enough to the area I love that gets just enough snow for me to be happy.  But even here sometimes I want more, and I have thought of going to somewhere that is guaranteed consistent snowfall in winter 90% of the time.  But for now I have come to peace with where I am and have accepted and learned to be happy with it.  I think some just have not accepted the reality of their climo and are living in constant denial and then lash out when the reality hits them in the face every winter.  That isnt healthy.  So I sympathize with you completely but going on some epic meltdown everytime we don't get snow isnt the best way to deal with it IMO.  Sorry if you take this the wrong way.  I like you and I sympathize but think about if this is really the best way to cope.

[Interstate]

This is for anyone in our region.

 

The problem is that you know when we are on the outside looking in.  You know that 99% Miller B's are not good for our latitude.  You know that the mountains wreak havoc on Clippers.  If you temper your  expectations you would live a much better winter life.  Most of the time it is a thread the needle type of event.  I do not know why anyone would get upset for a storm to disappear on any model 5 days out.  All it takes is something early in any run, to have cascading consequences.  Once you come to that conclusion, you will be more mentality prepare for winter's in the region.

[ers-wxman1]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I understand how you feel.  I really do I am not just saying that.  I felt the same way many times living close to where you do.  And I still get frustrated and way too upset then I should when a storm misses me.  And one thing I did do was to move to the snowiest location in our region.  But I also had to be more realistic with my expectations.  Even here its not going to just snow all the time.  There will be long stretches and fails.  And I need to appreciate when it does snow, and not go crazy when it doesnt.  But you know what climo is.  You know that no matter how good a day 10 model looks the reality is we will miss most storms.  That we will end up with less snow then places to our north.  That most threats we track will end in fail.  If that fact means you will be miserable all the time maybe you really should move. 

I am NOT trying to be cruel I mean it... be honest with yourself about what you need to be happy.  Life's too short to be miserable all the time.  People move to the beach and thats not crazy.  People move to the mountains... if snow is what makes you happy why is moving to where it snows crazy?  But know what is crazy, living somewhere that it doesn't snow much and then getting bent out of shape everytime. 

I found a spot close enough to the area I love that gets just enough snow for me to be happy.  But even here sometimes I want more, and I have thought of going to somewhere that is guaranteed consistent snowfall in winter 90% of the time.  But for now I have come to peace with where I am and have accepted and learned to be happy with it.  I think some just have not accepted the reality of their climo and are living in constant denial and then lash out when the reality hits them in the face every winter.  That isnt healthy.  So I sympathize with you completely but going on some epic meltdown everytime we don't get snow isnt the best way to deal with it IMO.  Sorry if you take this the wrong way.  I like you and I sympathize but think about if this is really the best way to cope.

Good points PSU. Another option if you don’t like your location is to snow chase. It does cost money, but, you can experience a winter storm the way you like it with the added excitement of experiencing it in a new area. WxWatcher007 and I went to OC for the 952 low and experienced one heck of a blizzard. We had a ball down there. I do realize that may not be feasible for some, but worth it. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Good points PSU. Another option if you don’t like your location is to snow chase. It does cost money, but, you can experience a winter storm the way you like it with the added excitement of experiencing it in a new area. WxWatcher007 and I went to OC for the 952 low and experienced one heck of a blizzard. We had a ball down there. I do realize that may not be feasible for some, but worth it. 

Great idea...and that is what I do when were having an epic bad year and I can't get my snow fix here.  If things keep failing and we get to late February I might do the same this year.  Last year I took a couple weekend trips out to deep creek with my son and went sledding.  It was amazing and cathartic.  I came back refreshed. 

[ATreglown]

I see the long range closed.... New one?....

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Great idea...and that is what I do when were having an epic bad year and I can't get my snow fix here.  If things keep failing and we get to late February I might do the same this year.  Last year I took a couple weekend trips out to deep creek with my son and went sledding.  It was amazing and cathartic.  I came back refreshed. 

If you haven't yet done so, you must go to the sled-track at Black Water State Park.  We went there a couple weeks ago (the epic cold weekend); it was awesome.  Can't believe I'd never gone there before.  Great hill, cool conveyor lift up the hill through the forest, and - of course - the best weather anywhere within 500 miles.  That will become a winter-time staple for us.  I gave up waiting for snow in this crap-hole; I have close to zero expectation of getting a sled-able snow this winter, or another other, so I will be making periodic trips to Canaan/Davis.  And, it doesn't hurt that I can stop by Jon Jon's for my absolute favorite Stout.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Great idea...and that is what I do when were having an epic bad year and I can't get my snow fix here.  If things keep failing and we get to late February I might do the same this year.  Last year I took a couple weekend trips out to deep creek with my son and went sledding.  It was amazing and cathartic.  I came back refreshed. 

The problem is it seems to be some sort of genetic illness. I was a snow weenie at birth. I'm the only one in my family who gives a crap about snow. I went to Frostburg for my freshman year of college for the sole reason that it snows a lot there. As soon as I graduated college I moved to CO and ended up staying 7 years. You know how I know it's a sickness? Even the Rockies weren't enough. Average snowfall was 360". We had 2 years that didn't crack 300" and they were complete disasters. 260" of snow was a gut punching disaster. One year we got close to 500".... and you know what? Even that year left me feeling like we missed a lot opportunities and it could have been bigger. 

The problem is there is never enough. Coming to grips with that helps me totally enjoy our snow climo. Sure it's frustrating sometimes and we can have disaster near snowless winters. But since I totally understand and accept that it's never enough, I don't need to chase storms or move anywhere because that doesn't solve the problem.  So I just kick back and enjoy whatever I get no matter how much or how little. There's always next year until there isn't. I entered this world a snow weenie and I'll leave it that way too. 

I very much enjoy the technical side now though. I like being able to interpret near endless NWP data and also recall past events to come to pretty sound conclusions. It's a lot of fun tracking threats even if the batting average is low. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The problem is it seems to be some sort of genetic illness. I was a snow weenie at birth. I'm the only one in my family who gives a crap about snow. I went to Frostburg for my freshman year of college for the sole reason that it snows a lot there. As soon as I graduated college I moved to CO and ended up staying 7 years. You know how I know it's a sickness? Even the Rockies weren't enough. Average snowfall was 360". We had 2 years that didn't crack 300" and they were complete disasters. 260" of snow was a gut punching disaster. One year we got close to 500".... and you know what? Even that year left me feeling like we missed a lot opportunities and it could have been bigger. 

The problem is there is never enough. Coming to grips with that helps me totally enjoy our snow climo. Sure it's frustrating sometimes and we can have disaster near snowless winters. But since I totally understand and accept that it's never enough, I don't need to chase storms or move anywhere because that doesn't solve the problem.  So I just kick back and enjoy whatever I get no matter how much or how little. There's always next year until there isn't. I entered this world a snow weenie and I'll leave it that way too. 

I very much enjoy the technical side now though. I like being able to interpret near endless NWP data and also recall past events to come to pretty sound conclusions. It's a lot of fun tracking threats even if the batting average is low. 

As snow weenies, it's important to learn how to put expectations in check.  It's not always easy to do and it actually takes practice to hold back.

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

If you haven't yet done so, you must go to the sled-track at Black Water State Park.  We went there a couple weeks ago (the epic cold weekend); it was awesome.  Can't believe I'd never gone there before.  Great hill, cool conveyor lift up the hill through the forest, and - of course - the best weather anywhere within 500 miles.  That will become a winter-time staple for us.  I gave up waiting for snow in this crap-hole; I have close to zero expectation of getting a sled-able snow this winter, or another other, so I will be making periodic trips to Canaan/Davis.  And, it doesn't hurt that I can stop by Jon Jon's for my absolute favorite Stout.

Thanks for the tip...will definitely check it out.  My son was too small for anything big last year but now that he is getting bigger that sounds perfect.  Luckily he is just like me.  He loves snow, and when it does snow he seems to love to just walk around in it the most of all.  Last winter he just wanted to hike all over the trails in deep creek park.  Whenever the snow melts here he is really sad and I have to promise him the snow will come back.  Luckly he isnt too good with timing and the whole "when" snow will come back thing yet. 

[ATreglown]

19 minutes ago, ATreglown said:

I see the long range closed.... New one?....

NM. I see the one George started for Feb. is now back opened.

[motsco]

what am i missing (other then a brain). but there was talk of polar v returning in february, but all i see is normal and below normal temps with a few warm ones tossed in and very little precipitation.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks for the tip...will definitely check it out.  My son was too small for anything big last year but now that he is getting bigger that sounds perfect.  Luckily he is just like me.  He loves snow, and when it does snow he seems to love to just walk around in it the most of all.  Last winter he just wanted to hike all over the trails in deep creek park.  Whenever the snow melts here he is really sad and I have to promise him the snow will come back.  Luckly he isnt too good with timing and the whole "when" snow will come back thing yet. 

They allow 2 per sled.  I rode with both my 5 year old and 2 year old.  The hill is pretty big and fast, but so long as you are not completely inept at steering, not much chance of wreakage.  The tickets are like $25 apiece and kids under 5 are free.  Can't beat the price, and Canaan doesn't let my 2 year old tube.  Frankly, I like the plastic sleds a lot better than the tubes; it's annoying to spin for me.  I like being able to steer the sled and be in-control.

Your son sounds like me too when I was young.  Been snow-obsessed for as long as I can remember.  My oldest daughter gets real excited for snow also, but she has her limits with the cold.  If there is snow, I have no limit to cold.  Weird.  When we were out at Canaan at -10F and 20 MPH winds, I stayed outside for hours hiking in the woods around our rental cabin.  If not for darkness, I would have stayed out for hours more.  I get home and the temp is 30F with 20 MPH winds (and bare ground and clear skies) and it felt miserable cold.

[pasnownut]

47 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The problem is it seems to be some sort of genetic illness. I was a snow weenie at birth. I'm the only one in my family who gives a crap about snow. I went to Frostburg for my freshman year of college for the sole reason that it snows a lot there. As soon as I graduated college I moved to CO and ended up staying 7 years. You know how I know it's a sickness? Even the Rockies weren't enough. Average snowfall was 360". We had 2 years that didn't crack 300" and they were complete disasters. 260" of snow was a gut punching disaster. One year we got close to 500".... and you know what? Even that year left me feeling like we missed a lot opportunities and it could have been bigger. 

The problem is there is never enough. Coming to grips with that helps me totally enjoy our snow climo. Sure it's frustrating sometimes and we can have disaster near snowless winters. But since I totally understand and accept that it's never enough, I don't need to chase storms or move anywhere because that doesn't solve the problem.  So I just kick back and enjoy whatever I get no matter how much or how little. There's always next year until there isn't. I entered this world a snow weenie and I'll leave it that way too. 

I very much enjoy the technical side now though. I like being able to interpret near endless NWP data and also recall past events to come to pretty sound conclusions. It's a lot of fun tracking threats even if the batting average is low. 

It’s like we’re twins....

except youre the smarter one. 

My sentiments exactly. 

 

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

The problem is it seems to be some sort of genetic illness. I was a snow weenie at birth. I'm the only one in my family who gives a crap about snow. I went to Frostburg for my freshman year of college for the sole reason that it snows a lot there. As soon as I graduated college I moved to CO and ended up staying 7 years. You know how I know it's a sickness? Even the Rockies weren't enough. Average snowfall was 360". We had 2 years that didn't crack 300" and they were complete disasters. 260" of snow was a gut punching disaster. One year we got close to 500".... and you know what? Even that year left me feeling like we missed a lot opportunities and it could have been bigger. 

The problem is there is never enough. Coming to grips with that helps me totally enjoy our snow climo. Sure it's frustrating sometimes and we can have disaster near snowless winters. But since I totally understand and accept that it's never enough, I don't need to chase storms or move anywhere because that doesn't solve the problem.  So I just kick back and enjoy whatever I get no matter how much or how little. There's always next year until there isn't. I entered this world a snow weenie and I'll leave it that way too. 

I very much enjoy the technical side now though. I like being able to interpret near endless NWP data and also recall past events to come to pretty sound conclusions. It's a lot of fun tracking threats even if the batting average is low. 

I am headed to Summit County in a couple weeks, so I shall get my 'fix'.  Much like you, I had the 'bug' from day one it seems. I can remember as early as 6, 7 8 years old getting up after parents had gone to bed and sitting in the big front window watching it snow for hours at night. Heck, I'm 53 and still stay up and watch it snow lol.

It has been a rough winter here, but you have to take the good with the bad, that is what makes averages......

[Jebman]

1 minute ago, wxdude64 said:

I am headed to Summit County in a couple weeks, so I shall get my 'fix'.  Much like you, I had the 'bug' from day one it seems. I can remember as early as 6, 7 8 years old getting up after parents had gone to bed and sitting in the big front window watching it snow for hours at night. Heck, I'm 53 and still stay up and watch it snow lol.

It has been a rough winter here, but you have to take the good with the bad, that is what makes averages......

I am profoundly relieved that i am not the only 53 year old who stays up all night and watches it snow.

I thought I was going to have to seek help.