Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Right, this thread and panic room are the places to have meltdowns. I really hate when the analysis threads turn into a contest of who can be the most best Ji wannabe. Recency bias brings out the worst. If you can't look at each event individually and objectively then you shouldnt even bother with the entire hobby. Personally, I very much enjoy the mental exercise. Others are just mental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: When the 00z Euro tomorrow night takes the storm away, people will riot. That hype was so premature. I took look at about 2pm in the model thread and couldn't believe people were going crazy over one euro run on a storm 7 days out. Some people will never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Yeah that’s the whole point of The Panic Room. Not sure why the analysis threads get so bad sometimes but I have a theory or two. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 hours ago, mattie g said: I don’t believe you. Lol. I love snow but it is what it is. Now if the eagles lose tomorrow....then I'll be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Recency bias brings out the worst. If you can't look at each event individually and objectively then you shouldnt even bother with the entire hobby. Personally, I very much enjoy the mental exercise. Others are just mental. Speak for yourself! eta: the hobby wouldn't exist without recency bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Speak for yourself! eta: the hobby wouldn't exist without recency biasWhySent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: That hype was so premature. I took look at about 2pm in the model thread and couldn't believe people were going crazy over one euro run on a storm 7 days out. Some people will never learn. 5 days and no one was going crazy. We liked the run. That's all. No one said it's gonna happen. We do this all the time. And every time myself and others are careful to analyze a run but also clearly keep expectations in check. Comparing the h5 to past storms doesn't mean we said that's going to happen. And this is supposed to be fun not blood sport. Yet every time someone (often you) does this slow your roll thing. Maybe your projecting. I just enjoy analyzing a run and it's more fun when it's a good run. That's all. I didn't read anyone say it's gonna snow. What do you want in there. "Oh the euro shows snow. Next" ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 i bet its going to get cold by 9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 5 days and no one was going crazy. We liked the run. That's all. No one said it's gonna happen. We do this all the time. And every time myself and others are careful to analyze a run but also clearly keep expectations in check. Comparing the h5 to past storms doesn't mean we said that's going to happen. And this is supposed to be fun not blood sport. Yet every time someone (often you) does this slow your roll thing. Maybe your projecting. I just enjoy analyzing a run and it's more fun when it's a good run. That's all. I didn't read anyone say it's gonna snow. What do you want in there. "Oh the euro shows snow. Next" ughSpeak for yourselfI'm all in for a foot Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: Speak for yourself I'm all in for a foot Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Sorry I'm busy tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 33 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: When the 00z Euro tomorrow night takes the storm away, people will riot. Nah, here’s how it will go: Tonight 0z: MECS Tomorrow 12z: 1-3” offshore low Tomorrow 0z: back to a clipper dusting Sunday 12z: dry fropa monday 0z; clipper dusting Monday 12z: one last tease at a major coastal with WSW snow tuesday 0z: clipper dusting Tuesday 12z: clipper dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 What about the generally useless spectators Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Unfortunately, I think there are only a hand full of people that genuinely feel the same way. We all love snow of course and it does weird things to us. IMO, there are maybe four kinds of winter posters and it's almost like there are levels that you can upgrade or downgrade. 1. The (bad) Weenie--those are the posters who only go into the threads to get confirmation that snow is coming, and when there is a bad period or bad luck they're first to jump ship in spectacular fashion. I won't name names but those folks (God love em) are spotted from a mile away. That was all of us when we first started around here or elsewhere. 2. The Thirsty Poster--these are posters who aren't much different from the (bad) weenie. They're still here solely for confirmation that snow is coming. Unlike the (bad) weenie however, they're desperate for the white stuff no matter what. We're probably all capable of getting here temporarily during an awful season (see last year) but these folks salivate when seeing a GFS blizzard at 384 and become despondent when it doesn't happen. They're the ones that take it personally when it doesn't snow, but they're so hooked they're going to track all the way until the first spring torch verifies. 3. The Casual Observer--these are posters who could contribute something (or nothing), but because there are enough good to great posts that come in during the winter they realize not much needs to be said from them. They're the read more, post less types. When they post, whether it's in the obs or tracking or even banter threads, you see that they're contributing something or trying to be thoughtful even if the analysis is off. They feel the sting of a fail, but it impacts them less or they don't broadcast it to the world. 4. The Enlightened Ones--the hand full. These are usually the people that are mets (which brings a broader perspective) or posters that have been here a very long time and understand the region. They're weenies too, and will hurt if we have a catastrophic winter, but they are generally the last to hug a threat and first to cut bait when the odds say to. The problem with being an enlightened one is that everyone pays attention to you. Your posts have immense value, and along with it, you can lead people to the promised land or stick a knife in their weenie heart when talking about a threat. Aim for the enlightened ones! eta: not just mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: When the 00z Euro tomorrow night takes the storm away, people will riot. Don't worry we are a snowtown. By snowtown, I mean a +30 out of thin air town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Nah, here’s how it will go: Tonight 0z: MECS Tomorrow 12z: 1-3” offshore low Tomorrow 0z: back to a clipper dusting Sunday 12z: dry fropa monday 0z; clipper dusting Monday 12z: one last tease at a major coastal with WSW snow tuesday 0z: clipper dusting Tuesday 12z: clipper dusting /thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Lol. I love snow but it is what it is. Now if the eagles lose tomorrow....then I'll be a mess. Gotta admit that I haven’t seen more than a few quarters of foozeball this year, so even though I’m excited for what the Birds have done, I’m pretty blasé about the whole thing. Might be different if Wentz hadn’t gotten hurt, but even then I’d likey be relatively emotionally uninvested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Clown show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Unfortunately, I think there are only a hand full of people that genuinely feel the same way. We all love snow of course and it does weird things to us. IMO, there are maybe four kinds of winter posters and it's almost like there are levels that you can upgrade or downgrade. 1. The (bad) Weenie--those are the posters who only go into the threads to get confirmation that snow is coming, and when there is a bad period or bad luck they're first to jump ship in spectacular fashion. I won't name names but those folks (God love em) are spotted from a mile away. That was all of us when we first started around here or elsewhere. 2. The Thirsty Poster--these are posters who aren't much different from the (bad) weenie. They're still here solely for confirmation that snow is coming. Unlike the (bad) weenie however, they're desperate for the white stuff no matter what. We're probably all capable of getting here temporarily during an awful season (see last year) but these folks salivate when seeing a GFS blizzard at 384 and become despondent when it doesn't happen. They're the ones that take it personally when it doesn't snow, but they're so hooked they're going to track all the way until the first spring torch verifies. 3. The Casual Observer--these are posters who could contribute something (or nothing), but because there are enough good to great posts that come in during the winter they realize not much needs to be said from them. They're the read more, post less types. When they post, whether it's in the obs or tracking or even banter threads, you see that they're contributing something or trying to be thoughtful even if the analysis is off. They feel the sting of a fail, but it impacts them less or they don't broadcast it to the world. 4. The Enlightened Ones--the hand full. These are usually the people that are mets (which brings a broader perspective) or posters that have been here a very long time and understand the region. They're weenies too, and will hurt if we have a catastrophic winter, but they are generally the last to hug a threat and first to cut bait when the odds say to. The problem with being an enlightened one is that everyone pays attention to you. Your posts have immense value, and along with it, you can lead people to the promised land or stick a knife in their weenie heart when talking about a threat. You forgot the misery loves company poster...the ones when their snow is stolen from them they spread their bad mood like grandpa spreads herpes at the retirement home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Don't worry guys, the Euro nailed Sandy. It can nail a light-moderate event 5 days out in a year it hasn't done too well. It can do anything. As a matter of fact, The Euro Nailed Sandy That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 53 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You forgot the misery loves company poster...the ones when their snow is stolen from them they spread their bad mood like grandpa spreads herpes at the retirement home Then there's the glass half empty or glass smashed on sidewalk and popped a bike tire posters. If your that miserable that you can't post a single positive or optimistic post ever then you might need to talk to a doctor and get some meds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Then there's the glass half empty or glass smashed on sidewalk and popped a bike tire posters. If your that miserable that you can't post a single positive or optimistic post ever then you might need to talk to a doctor and get some meds. Ummm, got me thinking? Maybe I should call on my doctor..... then again, JI seems to think we are all crazy! So, I will just wait it out and see how things evolve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I still don’t understand the whole “lock it in” phrase. Where are you locking that digital snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I am in upstate NY right now, and I know rubbing in my conditions from other locations could get me banned so I won't, but things are awesome. I'm getting my fill. Going down to -11 tonight which will be the coldest night I've ever experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 So far, the banter, obs and panic room threads were my 3 first active threads this morning. I guess that’s a sign for next weeks snow. Lock it in, we take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 7 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Then there's the glass half empty or glass smashed on sidewalk and popped a bike tire posters. If your that miserable that you can't post a single positive or optimistic post ever then you might need to talk to a doctor and get some meds. 14 hours ago, mattie g said: I’m staring to think that Amped is among the worst posters in our region. Am I late to the party on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I wonder if the pre-upgrade Euro op model algorithms are still laying around somewhere and if they are encrypted or copyright protected? It would be cool to put that programming into our GFS and have that model become the King. Nobody would even have to know ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Ummm, got me thinking? Maybe I should call on my doctor..... then again, JI seems to think we are all crazy! So, I will just wait it out and see how things evolve!Ji is the only sane one and we are all the crazies.....seriously. He may be the only one that rarely bites on a threat and is generally against it happening while the rest of us scour over model data, logs, maps, charts, ensembles, teleconnection indices, etc. And guess what? His thoughts are usually correct with the threats fizzling out or never materializing while the rest of us crazies go back and create well-formed theories on why the models failed. We're the ones up at 1:30am for a Euro run while Ji is playing with the sandman watching the cows jump over the moon. He is the true folk hero here, hands down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 runs in a row of the worlds best weather model (TM) giving us all warning or near warning level snow at D4-5 leads and everyone’s depressed. Never change folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ji is the only sane one and we are all the crazies.....seriously. He may be the only one that rarely bites on a threat and is generally against it happening while the rest of us scour over model data, logs, maps, charts, ensembles, teleconnection indices, etc. And guess what? His thoughts are usually correct with the threats fizzling out or never materializing while the rest of us crazies go back and create well-formed theories on why the models failed. We're the ones up at 1:30am for a Euro run while Ji is playing with the sandman watching the cows jump over the moon. He is the true folk hero here, hands down. This is a clown post bro Ji jumps on any run that gives snow and when it fizzles he spreads his demon seed like he got it on sale at Costco at a closeout price Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 If the snow won't come to you. Go to the snow. Yeh, Only 3 inches, I expected more. Oh well. But, it s still nice, its creates that feeling. Helps me deal with my mid atlantic winters. I am already planning another trip. This time no screwing around, I am going for a big one, a foot plus at least. Maybe davis west Virginia, but the lack of cell phone service there scares me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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