January Banter String

[T. August]

39 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I disagree...but he could be like 12, 

But it all seriousness, what's the angle here?  Why are you riling people up?  Explain.  

I’m flattered. I’m actually 20. But my inability to grow facial hair keeps me looking spry.

[87storms]

posting here as well in case someone knows a link.  looking for a link that has historical radar (ready to view) from pre-95.  this link only goes back to 95: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2006&month=2&day=11&hour=0&minute=0

would be cool to see storms from the 80s especially and even 93, without relying on youtube.

[Interstate]

Let's do a poll

35 degrees and rain 

OR

15 degrees for a high and dry

[CAPE]

Blowing and drifting snow all the way home from the beach. Mesmerizing. Lots of snow devils in the open fields. Huge drift at the end of my driveway, but most of the rest of it was blown bare.

Sort of feels and looks like the northern plains around here (with more trees).

[KingJWx]

If it's not going to snow, I'll gladly accept the torch that's being shown in the long range. Might want to throw in some rain, cause it's been really dry these past few months.

[93Blizzard]

@North Balti Zen How is Roland Park?

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Was thinking the same thing 

What a chase eh? Hated leaving Rehoboth. Really picturesque place all buried in snow. The drifts were awesome. Was pretty crippled yesterday, but plows, tractors, snow blowers all out in full force this am. Huge piles of snow everywhere.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, 93Blizzard said:

@North Balti Zen How is Roland Park?

Bye

[87storms]

i'm kinda regretting not going to the coast for this storm.  good call for those who can and did.

[AdamHLG]

You know what sucks? That was THE storm of the winter. Those that didn't chase, or weren't there, including me, missed it. You know it, I know it, the forum knows it. That was an epic hurricane snow storm and it's over. No amount of chasing ice pellets to 50 degree temps will match it. I'm pissed I missed it but I'll get over it. Now it's going to torch and then sun angle. #sourgrapes. #rantover. #shouldhavechased.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[mattie g]

Already starting to think about ordering tomatoes and calculating when I’ll be planting the first of the spring seeds.

[mattie g]

13 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

If it stays as cold as forecasts say over the weekend I think regardless of the type of precip that falls from the sky there's going to be some slick spots. Sidewalks and bridges etc. I'm doubting too disruptive but I'm sure someone on this forum goes down hopefully a “student” so that mattieg might feel a little guilt

Never. Whether it’s an actual student or someone claiming to be a student.

[ErinInTheSky]

Ok y’all. Had to share. Visiting in-laws in a Uniontown PA for the weekend. We are driving on 68 and no crap, there are no radar returns at all but we have been in a straight up blizzard. One lane traffic and rapidly accumulating snow. I am so confused. Luckily we are behind a salt truck and plow. But WOW.

[ErinInTheSky]

I don’t know a lot about winter weather, and even less about winter weather in the mountains, but my guess is either the radar beam is blocked by the mountains or this was a very huge ground blizzard.

[Interstate]

If you were in Maryland still... must have been Kesyers Ridge.  My dad would go through there all the time and just tell me stories about it.

[ErinInTheSky]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

If you were in Maryland still... must have been Kesyers Ridge.  My dad would go through there all the time and just tell me stories about it.

I was and I think so. I’m not lying when I say zero radar returns. I checked too and my radar was working, but it was showing NOTHING. But there was more snow than I’ve seen since moving here.

[Interstate]

5 hours ago, supernovasky said:

I was and I think so. I’m not lying when I say zero radar returns. I checked too and my radar was working, but it was showing NOTHING. But there was more snow than I’ve seen since moving here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keysers_Ridge,_Maryland

[psuhoffman]

Does anyone know what was the official site of record for snowfall in Baltimore before BWI?  Doing some research and wasn't sure.  Thanks

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Does anyone know what was the official site of record for snowfall in Baltimore before BWI?  Doing some research and wasn't sure.  Thanks

99% sure it was the Customs House in Baltimore City.

[psuhoffman]

11 hours ago, supernovasky said:

I don’t know a lot about winter weather, and even less about winter weather in the mountains, but my guess is either the radar beam is blocked by the mountains or this was a very huge ground blizzard.

Very common out there, Garrett County in western MD is like the grandfather creator of snow when its a cold pattern.  As for why no radar returns my guess is the snow was from upslope and sometimes the combo of the localized nature of it and sometimes the cloud deck with upslope snow is very thin and low, I have seen it not captured by radar before.  Sometimes it even happens here, no where near to the level of western MD but sometimes I will be getting light snow here from upslope enhanced lake effect or behind a departing storm and nothing is showing up on radar.  Usually it happens when the cloud deck is very low and thin and I can see the sun or moon through the clouds yet it is still snowing.  Radar will fail to capture it well.  That area out there is great.  Whenever I need a fix I take the 2.5 hour drive out to Deep Creek to do some hiking in the snow or sledding with my son. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

99% sure it was the Customs House in Baltimore City.

thanks

[showmethesnow]

40 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Nobody quote that shiit!!

I spent a couple hours writing that up and you call it shiit? I am deeply hurt. 

[mitchnick]

11 hours ago, supernovasky said:

Ok y’all. Had to share. Visiting in-laws in a Uniontown PA for the weekend. We are driving on 68 and no crap, there are no radar returns at all but we have been in a straight up blizzard. One lane traffic and rapidly accumulating snow. I am so confused. Luckily we are behind a salt truck and plow. But WOW.

That's a really great view to the west when coming down off the Allegheny Plateau to Uniontown. Went there in October of 06' when the skies were clear to visit a sick uncle. Really impressive. 

[aldie 22]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

I spent a couple hours writing that up and you call it shiit? I am deeply hurt. 

Great post man but it took me four minutes to scroll past it after I read it. I'm just busting

[PhineasC]

10 hours ago, supernovasky said:

I was and I think so. I’m not lying when I say zero radar returns. I checked too and my radar was working, but it was showing NOTHING. But there was more snow than I’ve seen since moving here.

It snowed all day in Oakland on Thursday and there was never a radar return. There rarely is. Just how it is out there. 

[psuhoffman]

@Ger

On Thursday you made a comment about NYC and our snow climo, and this isn't directed at you really but that reminded me of a post I have wanted to make every year and never got around to it regarding the skewed perception of NYC snow climo vs ours that happens everytime they get snow and we don't. 

First of all this is our local snow climo

And this is the best national snow mean map I have ever found, there is no range but its not hard to figure it out.

So first of all keep in mind that latitude doesn't run straight across that map, its skewed so it dips down in the middle.  So if you follow across at our Lat and account for elevation (it starts to go way up as you get into western Kansas) our snowfall is about what it should be for our latitude.  We are not in some kind of screw zone.  We don't get a ton of snow because, simply, we aren't far enough north or high enough up for that.  Yes the apps dry up some clippers but we also get more precip from coastals then west of the apps so it evens out.  Yea northern stream miller b storms screw us over but its not nearly as much about the jump and the apps as it is simply we are too far south.  A northern stream system isn't going to be amplifying while its still digging, that only happens once it makes the turn and is heading poleward.  I am not going to get into the dynamics of why but the bottom line is getting a northern stream system to dig far enough south to then be heading north again long enough to amplify and still be south of us is really really difficult.  Typically what we perceive as the storm skipping over us is simply it looks like its diving down towards us but then makes the turn and lifts north, then bombs out as its doing it leaving us frustrating.  But that is, again, just a function of our latitude.  Going across the CONUS most places don't get hit with big snowfall by northern stream only systems at our latitude.  For our latitude we might actually have the best chance from those of any longitude in the US, although those chances are only marginally better.  But still there is some perception that we are in a screw zone region and that is simply not true IMO unless you simply mean everyone this far south at close to sea level is in a screw zone. 

Then there is the NYC thing.  NYC is NOT the grandfather creator of snow that some on here act like.  Look at the national map.  Yes they average a bit more then us but they are further north, they should.  But the jump is in line with what would be expected for their latitude compared to ours.  There isnt some extreme gradient between here and there.  But you have to understand our local climo.  We live right about where snowfall climo really does make a HUGE jump because of latitude.  If you live along or northwest of the fall line it is vastly different then places that live southeast of DC proper.  Snowfall would go down significantly southeast of NYC also only that is over the water.  The entire NYC region is either in the city or NW of it.   Snow climo along and NW of 95 in our area is more in line with the rest of the mid atlantic.  It gets pretty UGLY though as soon as you get southeast of there.  The people that live down there know this.  It sucks for snow, just a reality.  So if your comparing places like DCA or anywhere southeast of there to NYC then yea its worlds apart. 

But lets compare the places in the NW 2/3rds of our region.  The snowfall averages around 20-27" across those zones.  NYC mean snowfall is 25.1" at central park, 22.7 in Brooklyn, 23.8 at JFK and 26.9 at LGA.  Yea on average NYC gets more but that isnt a big difference.  NYC has had 7 storms of 20" or more and Baltimore has had 9.  Comparing the same period of records I found 33 storms of 12" or more in NYC and Baltimore had 30.  Now I suspect if we took that lower and lower at some point NYC would gain an advantage as their latitude gets them involved in way more northern stream only events.  Those tend not to be HUGE snows but NYC probably has a significant advantage in small to moderate ones.  But that is normal for latitude. 

Now if we look at the whole NYC region they have a big advantage in that there are some pretty significant elevations really close in to their NW.  Some places just to the NW in NJ and NY state get above 1000 and close to 1500 feet.  We don't have anything like that in our area until you get out towards the blue ridge or Parrs Ridge in MD to a lesser extent.  But those areas do average around 30" in VA and I average close to 40" up here so if there were comparable elevations just to the NW of DC and Baltimore they would average similar to the elevations outside NYC only slightly less due to latitude. 

So why the skewed perception by many...I think we obsess over their hits and our misses way too much and forget the times we win quickly.  Yea every once in a while a boxing day or Dec 2000 storm happens.  But storms where they get absolutely crushed with 12" plus and we get blanked are more rare then some on here think.  They don't happen every year, not even close.  Yes they get MORE then use often in miller b type storms but more typically its like the Jan 2005 storm where our region had 3-7" generally and they got around a foot.  But we win sometimes too only when were getting blasted with snow we typically don't obsess about what its doing in NYC so we don't notice as much.

Yes NYC has an advantage from longitude with late developing coastal storms but sometimes a coastal tucks in too tight and we win.  Its more rare for us to get crushed and them get NOTHING because typically if the boundary is far enough south for us to get snow NYC will at least start as snow, but there are plenty of examples where we got 10" plus of all snow and they got 4-6" then mixed or rained.  Storms like January 2000, or Jan 22 1987 off the top of my head where we won and avoided the major mixing or dry slot problems they had.  Then there are a few examples where we got significant snow and they were mostly or all rain... like these...

But those aren't the storms we have the big advantage in.  Those are southern stream systems during a split flow that amplify but don't phase.  They sometimes stay south of NYC.  Yes sometimes storms coming west to east end up too far north, but other times this happens...

And then there are west to east systems where there is blocking and cold locked in and then this can happen

I wonder if NYC obsesses about these misses to us in the same way that some of us obsess about their snow.  I doubt it.  NYC went a whole decade once without a 10" snowstorm in the 80s and early 90s.  They can have absolutely crap years also.   In short, if you want to be jealous of snow pick a better location like interior eastern New England...wow do they get crushed most years.  But NYC isn't as good as some make it and we aren't as bad. 

 

[87storms]

was in deep creek a few years ago and it sprinkle snowed for like 48 hours straight, so not surprised to hear of a ghost event.  it's an unusual area.  if those mountains weren't there we might average 50" of snow a year.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, 87storms said:

was in deep creek a few years ago and it sprinkle snowed for like 48 hours straight, so not surprised to hear of a ghost event.  it's an unusual area.  if those mountains weren't there we might average 50" of snow a year.

ehh, we would average a bit more and get way more from clippers yes, but it would hurt us some with CAD events also.  Systems would still be drying out in general as they come southeast from the lakes until they hit the coast and the snow they get is enhanced by upslope which we don't have.  I doubt it would be as much an effect as you think. 

[Bob Chill]

The thing about Garrett county is its pretty far from the 3 closest radars so the beam angle is higher. A combo of distance from radar sites and ridges getting in the way make it hard for radar to pick up things like upslope. Upslope is also very low topped/shallow. Snow is basically falling from the clouds just off the ground. Tops of ridges are in the clouds. Put all that together and radar simply cant pick up the snow falling becuase it's reading the atmosphere above the snow. 

Colorado is an extreme version. The big orographic events on the ridges barely show up if at all on any of the radars. It can snow a foot but if you loop radar it looks like flurries at best.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What we need is a massive heated lake to our west  

Saw your other post too. The difference in snowfall may not be as much in the whole scheme of things but I think the bust potential and tracking pain are not and that matters a lot.

When we’re truly awful like last year we’re almost blanked. When a miller B screws us or a shortwave collapses over us I’m not sure it’s the same as a southern slider to them. 

I have no doubt though that NYC and NE folks obsess over the misses. We’re all snow weenies. My guess though is that it’s easier for a NYC or Boston snow lover to get over it because they know they’ll get something at some point soon...that’s not always the case here (see DC snow drought a few years before I moved here).

No doubt they have an advantage. But I feel the perception is it's greater than it really is. NYC gets busts too. I have several friends from my old meteorology days at Penn state that live in NYC so I hear about it. We have a running weather text thread going back a decade now. It's just typically their busts we don't notice. Busts often happen when your close to the edge. If NYC is on the edge we're not. Yea march 2001 was a bust for both but more often if they bust north we still get snow. If they bust on the south edge we weren't in the game so we don't care. But I hear about them every time from my friends.  And the perception we are in a screw zone relative to latitude also. Everyone as far south as we are without significant elevation is prone to snow droughts.