January Banter String

[isohume]

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

Is the board wonky for anyone else? I am signed in but the page looks lighter than usual and new posts are not showing up as new so I can’t tell where new content begins. Same issue on desktop and phone browser...

Idk, this place always seems a little wonky to me. The new content is generally the same as the old content. 

[North Balti Zen]

fwiw, I see the talking springing up in various threads on how good or bad the winter has been so far. That is so subjective, no right answers. I know people are pointing to BWI, say, being above climo for the winter so far, but, man, for my preferences, that's a big so what. I prefer warning level snow events, not getting six events to equal what one warning level snow event would be. So, for me anyway, with no winter storm watch events and no winter storm warning events so far this year (after none last year), it has been not awesome. Better than no snow, but by no means something that I think is good. Others will definitely feel differently.

 

ETA - put this in banter because the discussion has been creeping into the long range thread and didn't want to respond there to some so as not to clutter up that thread.

[mappy]

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

Is the board wonky for anyone else? I am signed in but the page looks lighter than usual and new posts are not showing up as new so I can’t tell where new content begins. Same issue on desktop and phone browser...

yes. i logged out and logged back in and seems to be okay now. 

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, mappy said:

yes. i logged out and logged back in and seems to be okay now. 

Yeah, that helped for me too, thanks.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

fwiw, I see the talking springing up in various threads on how good or bad the winter has been so far. That is so subjective, no right answers. I know people are pointing to BWI, say, being above climo for the winter so far, but, man, for my preferences, that's a big so what. I prefer warning level snow events, not getting six events to equal what one warning level snow event would be. So, for me anyway, with no winter storm watch events and no winter storm warning events so far this year (after none last year), it has been not awesome. Better than no snow, but by no means something that I think is good. Others will definitely feel differently.

So, as a transplant from Louisiana who has rarely experienced snow, I am loving this winter especially over last winter. I don’t need a big bad event. What’s been satisfying to me is the number of days that it snows and turns white outside, how long the snow has been sticking around, and always having something to track. Would I love a big ole snow bomb on my doorstep? Sure. But I’m fine with nickle and diving several events to keep the ground white.

[nw baltimore wx]

4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

So, as a transplant from Louisiana who has rarely experienced snow, I am loving this winter especially over last winter. I don’t need a big bad event. What’s been satisfying to me is the number of days that it snows and turns white outside, how long the snow has been sticking around, and always having something to track. Would I love a big ole snow bomb on my doorstep? Sure. But I’m fine with nickle and diving several events to keep the ground white.

I agree with you, but there is something special about a mid 20's, blustery, 4-8" snow fall. I also don't need a huge event, but I hope that you can experience an area-wide 4-8" warning event where the snow is like fine powdery sugar and the temperature is well below freezing for the duration, and for days after.  

[WVclimo]

6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

fwiw, I see the talking springing up in various threads on how good or bad the winter has been so far. That is so subjective, no right answers. I know people are pointing to BWI, say, being above climo for the winter so far, but, man, for my preferences, that's a big so what. I prefer warning level snow events, not getting six events to equal what one warning level snow event would be. So, for me anyway, with no winter storm watch events and no winter storm warning events so far this year (after none last year), it has been not awesome. Better than no snow, but by no means something that I think is good. Others will definitely feel differently.

 

ETA - put this in banter because the discussion has been creeping into the long range thread and didn't want to respond there to some so as not to clutter up that thread.

Met winter is halfway over next weekend.  I am sitting at just over an inch of snow on the season.  Climo here is around 26".  This two-week period of much-below normal temperatures has been awesome, but the bare ground has taken away from that somewhat also.

If the pattern breaks down over the next couple of weeks and we go mild for a while, it will take a heck of a finish to save this winter in my area.

[North Balti Zen]

12 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

So, as a transplant from Louisiana who has rarely experienced snow, I am loving this winter especially over last winter. I don’t need a big bad event. What’s been satisfying to me is the number of days that it snows and turns white outside, how long the snow has been sticking around, and always having something to track. Would I love a big ole snow bomb on my doorstep? Sure. But I’m fine with nickle and diving several events to keep the ground white.

Sure. Totally valid and I absolutely get that and wouldn't tell you to feel otherwise. Just find that when people start having these discussions, it's good to lay out what ideal is for each person. For me, watches that lead to warning level snow events are my muse, with big storms my passion, so this winter has so far, cold noted along with the nickel/dime events acknowledged, not been great so far for me.

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I agree with you, but there is something special about a mid 20's, blustery, 4-8" snow fall. I also don't need a huge event, but I hope that you can experience an area-wide 4-8" warning event where the snow is like fine powdery sugar and the temperature is well below freezing for the duration, and for days after.  

This. 100% this, from my point of view.

[Maestrobjwa]

I think we are just better off writing off La Niña winters before they start...it just never seems to work out (2013-14 was probably the exception). Awful, awful...(And is just me, or does it seem like this cold/dry warm/wet pattern seems to show up during La Niñas the most? @Bob Chill Does my observation have any accuracy?)

[North Balti Zen]

14 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

So, as a transplant from Louisiana who has rarely experienced snow, I am loving this winter especially over last winter. I don’t need a big bad event. What’s been satisfying to me is the number of days that it snows and turns white outside, how long the snow has been sticking around, and always having something to track. Would I love a big ole snow bomb on my doorstep? Sure. But I’m fine with nickle and diving several events to keep the ground white.

By the way, for a counterpoint to what I like, while the big storm in January 2016 made that winter for me (give me a 27 inch snowfall and nothing else and I am happy as a clam), others like winterwxlvr hated it, would far prefer an entire winter of small events and cold.

[mappy]

I'm in the group "if it's going to be cold, it should snow, otherwise be warm". 

wasted cold sucks. 

[Paleocene]

meanwhile in NE

There are chunks of sea ice flying over the roofs of houses on the coast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[smokeybandit]

I want enough snow that I can't tell the grass from the sidewalk.  Then a few days, then without me seeing the grass again, another storm where after I shovel, there's already an inch of snow on the driveway again.

 

Is that too much to ask?  Just a couple mini 2010 Snowpocalypses

[RevWarReenactor]

2 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

I want enough snow that I can't tell the grass from the sidewalk.  Then a few days, then without me seeing the grass again, another storm where after I shovel, there's already an inch of snow on the driveway again.

 

Is that too much to ask?  Just a couple mini 2010 Snowpocalypses

Yeh, too much to ask. Maybe a 1 in 5 year thing.

 

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think we are just better off writing off La Niña winters before they start...it just never seems to work out (2013-14 was probably the exception). Awful, awful...(And is just me, or does it seem like this cold/dry warm/wet pattern seems to show up during La Niñas the most? @Bob Chill Does my observation have any accuracy?)

You can never write anything off before it starts. It's not that simple. 95-96 was a Nina too. In general, Nina years deliver 50-75% of climo snow but like with all comparisons (except for mod nino's), they are just averages made up of booms and busts. Nina's don't coincide with big precip producers in our region because they are northern stream dominant. That's certainly been the case this year. Will it be the case all year? Could be but talking in absolutes around here is an easy way to get burned. 

What makes our area fun/complicated/hard/not fun is that we require a lot of luck in any year. 75% of the time (regardless of any index/teleconnection) we end up with below normal snow. But those above normal years can be great. Many of our below normal years are just 1-2 events away from above normal and they contain near misses. Luck has no reliable advance indicator. 

[Bob Chill]

14/15 was a cold enso year. We didn't get jack squat until Feb 14th. That year was a complete and utter disaster. People HATED the first 10 weeks. 10 weeks of agony. Then the dam broke and it's now a fondly remembered winter. But only if you start your memory on Feb 14th. If you include the previous 10 weeks the landscape changes. 90% of the people here wrote off 14/15 and couldn't wait for it to end. In the end 100% of the people enjoyed 6 weeks of winter wx. Do I think this year will suck until mid Feb and then go off the rails? I'd say it probably won't but I won't write off anything until we're well into Feb and guidance is clear that we're in a shutout. Until then it's business as usual in the MA.  

[nj2va]

My parents on the coast in jersey are getting shellacked by that mega death band.  Super jealous.

[H2O]

I haven't been around much today.  What have i missed?

 

[mappy]

31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

14/15 was a cold enso year. We didn't get jack squat until Feb 14th. That year was a complete and utter disaster. People HATED the first 10 weeks. 10 weeks of agony. Then the dam broke and it's now a fondly remembered winter. But only if you start your memory on Feb 14th. If you include the previous 10 weeks the landscape changes. 90% of the people here wrote off 14/15 and couldn't wait for it to end. In the end 100% of the people enjoyed 6 weeks of winter wx. Do I think this year will suck until mid Feb and then go off the rails? I'd say it probably won't but I won't write off anything until we're well into Feb and guidance is clear that we're in a shutout. Until then it's business as usual in the MA.  

the start of the 14/15 winter was especially rough after the impressive 13/14 winter we all had. 

[Maestrobjwa]

44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You can never write anything off before it starts. It's not that simple. 95-96 was a Nina too. In general, Nina years deliver 50-75% of climo snow but like with all comparisons (except for mod nino's), they are just averages made up of booms and busts. Nina's don't coincide with big precip producers in our region because they are northern stream dominant. That's certainly been the case this year. Will it be the case all year? Could be but talking in absolutes around here is an easy way to get burned. 

What makes our area fun/complicated/hard/not fun is that we require a lot of luck in any year. 75% of the time (regardless of any index/teleconnection) we end up with below normal snow. But those above normal years can be great. Many of our below normal years are just 1-2 events away from above normal and they contain near misses. Luck has no reliable advance indicator. 

If we end up below normal that percentage of years, perhaps they should lower what's normal (that amount seems way too high for this region, seeing as we don't get there half the time)

[87storms]

40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

14/15 was a cold enso year. We didn't get jack squat until Feb 14th. That year was a complete and utter disaster. People HATED the first 10 weeks. 10 weeks of agony. Then the dam broke and it's now a fondly remembered winter. But only if you start your memory on Feb 14th. If you include the previous 10 weeks the landscape changes. 90% of the people here wrote off 14/15 and couldn't wait for it to end. In the end 100% of the people enjoyed 6 weeks of winter wx. Do I think this year will suck until mid Feb and then go off the rails? I'd say it probably won't but I won't write off anything until we're well into Feb and guidance is clear that we're in a shutout. Until then it's business as usual in the MA.  

we actually had a couple events in jan 2015.  jan 6 we had a clipper that at least in my area laid down 3-4" of cold powder and a couple lights events on jan 21 and jan 26.  i keep a little archive of this stuff.  i thought 2013 - jan 16 was generally an outstanding period for this area.  this winter is TBD.  we'll need at least a secs/mecs to make it legit.

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, mappy said:

the start of the 14/15 winter was especially rough after the impressive 13/14 winter we all had. 

It was a year of ups and downs before finding itself. The late Nov storm got us all thinking it would be great again...and then all of December wasted. lol. The 3 events in Jan kept us out of the coffin but it was pretty bleak at the end of Jan. 3 events and under 10" total for pretty much everyone and guidance was a disaster. Some of the misses in Jan and early Feb were hard to swallow. Legit teases while up north couldn't stop snowing. By the first week of Feb people were cancelling left and right but that arctic front started showing up and kept us (at least some of us) interested.  Then a 6 week period came in like a lion and it was awesome. 

Last year of course was pretty much the epitome of a disaster. Scorching December, limited chances, and little if any hope ever showed up. This year has already exceeded all of last year by many metrics. 

 

[WxUSAF]

Even if the winter ends after Sunday, I think it’s been better than last year. One solid month of cold temps, with five accumulating snow events, is miles better than last years endless torches. Especially as this period has been centered around the holidays. I don’t think we’re done in any way actually. We’re not even into peak snow climo. 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

we actually had a couple events in jan 2015.  jan 6 we had a clipper that at least in my area laid down 3-4" of cold powder and a couple lights events on jan 21 and jan 26.  i keep a little archive of this stuff.  i thought 2013 - jan 16 was generally an outstanding period for this area.  this winter is TBD.  we'll need at least a secs/mecs to make it legit.

Yea, I just posted the same recap at the same time. lol. Jan/early Feb 15 was hard to watch because it snowed for like 300 hours straight up north of us. And we get teased the F out of for the superbowl weekend. Even though we had 3 small events in Jan, nobody (including myself) was happy with how that winter was unfolding. Made up for it quick though. 

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Even if the winter ends after Sunday, I think it’s been better than last year. One solid month of cold temps, with five accumulating snow events, is miles better than last years endless torches. Especially as this period has been centered around the holidays. I don’t think we’re done in any way actually. We’re not even into peak snow climo. 

I mean I've already almost doubled last season's snow.

[North Balti Zen]

5 measureable events, 5.4 inches for me, so far this season. My own personal preference, but that does NOT cut it for acceptable/optimal. It's better than shut out, I guess, but it is far from my ideal. I would take 5.4 in one warning level event 10 times out of 10 over 5 events to get to 5.4 inches.

Again, to each their own, I am sure.

[87storms]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, I just posted the same recap at the same time. lol. Jan/early Feb 15 was hard to watch because it snowed for like 300 hours straight up north of us. And we get teased the F out of for the superbowl weekend. Even though we had 3 small events in Jan, nobody (including myself) was happy with how that winter was unfolding. Made up for it quick though. 

true, though i did like that jan 6 one, but i remember it being a hot mess for city.  i think i lucked out.  2013 did start slow too, but the whole vibe of those 2 winters just felt like winter which is what i like about this one so far (minus the early torching).  i couldn't believe how much of the potomac is already frozen, so that gets added to the winter factor lol.  i guess we average crap totals in december for a reason.  even in the 80s, our months were generally jan/feb.

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If we end up below normal that percentage of years, perhaps they should lower what's normal (that amount seems way too high for this region, seeing as we don't get there half the time)

You could say the same thing about daily air temperatures. Weather is a series of anomalous events nearly daily. Averages are just a way of making sense out of it.  

[gymengineer]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If we end up below normal that percentage of years, perhaps they should lower what's normal (that amount seems way too high for this region, seeing as we don't get there half the time)

“Normal” and “climo” both just mean “the mean.” If you prefer, use the median instead. That trims about 5” off for DCA, for example.