nw baltimore wx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'll toss the first radar hallucination in banter, but the radar in GA suggests that the western edge of precipitation is much further inland than even the GFS modeled this morning. Whether that has any impact up this way is anybody's guess. (edit: Sorry, this is the gfs) https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Where is AcePuppy when you need him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I am down with any radar halluciations and hope. One of my dreams still is another reverse bust storm/blizzard - I got that in my part of Ohio in January 1996, it was magical. One inch forecast, 13 inches fell over 24 hours. It was the best. Rooting like hell for the inland weenie posts in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Woke up hoping for a miracle... this hobby stinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'm tempted to create a thread just for people who want to over analyze every radar movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea we're cutting the less but the finish line is fast approaching. I would feel better with where we are if I lived east of 95 or we had 24 more hours. But if this ends up like last last January when I got a few flurries while ocean city and NYC get buried I'd have rather it stayed east of Bermuda and saved me having to even think about it. ETA: no offense to those on the Delmarva. I don't begrudge you your snow. Enjoy it. But it's just human nature. If the storm was 500 miles away you don't even think about it. But when it's close enough to smell the snow it's on your mind. Two years in a row same time of year is a bit tough to take. @WxWatcher007 If I was put on the "watch list" for some perceived panicky post, then our boy Hoff has to take one on the chin for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: I'm tempted to create a thread just for people who want to over analyze every radar movement Blame H2O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, mattie g said: @WxWatcher007 If I was put on the "watch list" for some perceived panicky post, then our boy Hoff has to take one on the chin for this. See, that isn't panic (neither was what got you and me on that list when we shouldn't have been). That's just PSU laying out the truth. It's a backyard game, ultimately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 What I need this AM is pure uncut Roger Smith. In crack form. Smokable on a spoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: Blame H2O for what? there is a lot i could blame him for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, mappy said: for what? there is a lot i could blame him for Everything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Some great reads in the AFD's south of here. Check this one out from Greenville/Spartanburg Concern is growing that the system will complete the transition to a neutral tilt over AL/GA, then become negatively tilted crossing the western Carolinas. Upper jet divergence ahead of this feature should sharpen up very quickly over the central piedmont of the Carolinas from 18Z to 21Z and a robust region of deep layer Q-vector convergence will likely cross the area as well. Meanwhile, the associated surface reflection will likely develop near the north Florida coast and then deepen northward over the coastal waters of the Carolinas. All of these features may well come together to provide just enough moisture, and improving forcing, for snow showers to develop mainly southeast of Charlotte. This could lead to some quick accumulations of snow on the very cold ground, especially over Union County NC this afternoon and early this evening. The current feeling is that any strong frontogenesis bands will set up east of the forecast area, so we shouldn`t be looking at any heavy convective rates in our forecast area - unless the aforementioned slower and more westward trends accelerate. Radar trends will need to be monitored closely today for a short fuse SPS or winter weather advisory should any snow showers threaten the lower piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, mattie g said: Everything? my point exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Can we do that Houston Harvey thing and point all our fans to the WNW to push away the kicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ltrain said: Does anyone else stay away from watching or reading any coverage of a storm if we are on the crap end? Maybe it's just me but I try to stay away from it completely, especially with a storm this strong. I kinda of want it over with as quick as possible. It's the jealousy I suppose. I watch the southern and eastern people get decent storms the past couple of years and the northern and western peeps also get good banding and we are stuck in the middle. The blizzard of 2016 really sucked when we were caught in a dry slot for 5 hours and missed out on an additional 10" of snow not more than 10 miles to your west and northwest. I feel the same way. Blizzard was terrible, for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3K was always my favorite of all the numbered Ks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2016 Blizzard gave me over 30". Are people complaining they didn't get 40 or were there folks that got only 20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 With blizzard warnings up for the Tidewater of Virginia, I can recommend this spot as a great place to post up for anyone chasing: http://first-landing-state-park.org/ Went there last January and rented a cabin during their last blizzard warning. Cozy, affordable, great proximity to the beach, beautiful level hiking trails through the forest and the rangers shoveled our sidewalks regularly. Grocery store a mile up the road, booze easily accessible. If it wasn't during the first work week of the year, I would be very tempted to head there again for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 the HRRR looks really nice in at the end of its run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Jandurin said: 2016 Blizzard gave me over 30". Are people complaining they didn't get 40 or were there folks that got only 20? 19" here with 29" at BWI just a hop, skip and a jump from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Ocean City has a 90% chance of snow tonight. I've got an 80% chance. I wish that I had the confidence that LWX seems to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ltrain said: 19" here with 29" at BWI just a hop, skip and a jump from here. Yeah, that'd be rough. Not even 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, Ltrain said: 19" here with 29" at BWI just a hop, skip and a jump from here. Honestly it was never truly heavy snow. 20” here over that period of time is not impressive. Not sure why some folks belittle those that weren’t satisfied. we get it, you’ve a hard on for the blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It's really tough to not feel like Lucy is just getting ready for her best, latest ball fake out this winter. I'm well east of 95, so I'm feeling pretty good, but as others have said, this has heartbreak written all over it. I want to enjoy this, but I don't want the heartbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 We will not share 18hrrr...We will not share 18hrrr...We will not share 18hrrr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 HiResux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, isohume said: HiResux https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRE/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_ens_jet:&runTime=2018010300&plotName=cref_ens&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=52&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRRE Model Fields - Experimental&maxFcstLen=51&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I only accept experimental high res models that give me lots of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 May I please have my primary account back soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Time to get up in front of class.... I publicly admit I blew it and let my conservative odds approach to events here get in the way of what was really possible with this coastal. I was literally 100% sure nobody along 95 stood a chance. There was literally nothing about the setup that led me to believe there was a chance in the medium range. I'll remember this event because I can't remember the last time I was 100% sure about something in the med range when there was obviously a way to get it done. Everything broke right and it's happening. Maybe I get skunked but some areas west of the bay are all but guaranteed a memorable event and not a paltry dusting at this point. With that said, IF there's ever another setup like this I'm going to be 99% sure and just keep my mouth shut. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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