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2018 Banter Thread

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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kvegas-wx

kvegas-wx

Posted
Posted

So if we on the east coast rely on systems to come on shore before they can be sampled, and then we have 2-3 days to fine tune the forecast, do the people on the west coast think they are waking up to sunny and 75 and suddenly its raining??  Seriously, how does it work on the west coast for forecasting if upper air features can't be sampled until they are on shore?  Seems almost paradoxical.

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cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
On 12/4/2018 at 9:26 AM, kvegas-wx said:

So if we on the east coast rely on systems to come on shore before they can be sampled, and then we have 2-3 days to fine tune the forecast, do the people on the west coast think they are waking up to sunny and 75 and suddenly its raining??  Seriously, how does it work on the west coast for forecasting if upper air features can't be sampled until they are on shore?  Seems almost paradoxical.

That's an interesting point, and one I have never considered.  One thing that seems to be the case is that, the weather there seems to be less variable, at least if we are talking about sea level.  The temperatures ranges are much less and precipitation is more predictable (they have distinct wet and dry seasons).  I remember at work there was a guy who moved from Orange County CA and it really struck him how random our summer afternoon thundershowers are.  It was weird for him to be bone dry in his location and five miles down the road be getting a downpour.  Where he was from, everyone got rain or no one got rain.

San Diego is of course famous for being 75 - 85 the whole year.

Where it might make more difference is in the rockies and the western great plains.  cold and warm air masses are constantly battling with dramatic results, and they have less time to assimilate the land sampling than we do.

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YetAnotherRDUGuy

YetAnotherRDUGuy

Posted
Posted

On another note, I just want to express how awesome it is to have a storm like this to track in early Dec. I know it's way early, and there's a few ways this could go wrong, but we've got consistent model runs dumping a lot of wintry precip over a good amount of the SE. I honestly can't believe some of the amounts models are spitting out--even cutting the totals in half in some locations would result in a storm some of us would talk about for years.

Also--these thoughts don't necessarily mean I think this would be historical for the Triangle. I am thinking more of CLT and the Triad, and all points W, and over to abouts Burlington and Roxboro.  The cutoff has to come somewhere, and it could very likely be between CH and Raleigh. Or Durham and Wake Forest. Or Raleigh and Clayton.

But that doesn't mean I'm ruling it out.:snowing:

Blizzard of Dec '18 say whaat??
 

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Orangeburgwx

Orangeburgwx

Posted
Posted
On 2/2/2018 at 11:33 AM, tramadoc said:

Weatherboard clichés.

 

1. Torch.

2. MJO will save us.

3. SSW will save us.

4. Fab Feb is gonna rock (insert other word here).

5. The weeklies suck.

6. The weeklies don't have a clue.

7. We need that -NAO.

8. How does the EPO look?

9. What about the PNA?

10. Damn SER rearing it's ugly head.

11. Damn GL Low messing us up.

12. Apps runner!

13. Maybe this clipper will overperform!!

14. Enjoy your cold rain.

15. 850's are marginal.

16. That is/shows ________, verbatim.

17. Cold chasing rain.

18. I'd rather have cold/dry instead of warm/rain.

19. _______ model doesn't deal with CAD very well.

20. Is this an in-situ event?

21. February 2004!!

22. December 2000!!!

23. Need that low down in the gulf.

24. Northern stream is too dominant.

25. Suppression city!!

26. The MA or NE is going to score big with this one while we watch.

27. Need that low to pop just off Hatteras.

28. We never score with Miller B's.

29. This system looks more like a hybrid to me.

30. Maybe we catch some backside flurries after the storm exits.

31. This storm sets the stage for the next one.

32. Need that SW to exit around the Four Corners region.

33. The high moves out too quickly.

34. The _____ doesn't model this type of system very well.

35. Wait until we are in range of the mesoscale models.

36. That warm nose is problematic.

37. Rates will overcome 2m temps.

38. That high is setting up in the wrong place.

39. JB or DT says _____________?

40. Pattern change is coming. Give it time.

42. _____ pushes the cold back another week.

43. I'm hugging the _____ (insert model here).

44. ____ for the win (insert model here).

45. It's an outlier. Toss it.

46. It shows nothing for MBY.

47. I'm tired of ____ scoring big while I sit at 35 and rain.

48. I'm done with this model watching. It's going to do what it's going to do. I don't even care anymore.

49. Funny how the rain/snow line sets up through ______ (Wake County maybe??).

50. I have a good feeling about this one.

51. Verbatim, nothing outside of the mountains.

52. I need to move.

53. Looks like an I40/I85 special.

54. I can't believe the NWS is going with those amounts.

55. Brad P always shoots low then adjusts.

56. Fishel doesn't like the chances.

57. Did Fishel and Elizabeth Gardner even talk?

58. I don't like the H5 look.

59. I love the H5 look.

60. Need a more neutral to negative tilt.

61. Need that sucker to dig a little more.

62. Looks like it might try to phase.

63. It's closed off. Someone will score big time.

64. What's the ratio?

65. Is that Kuchera?

66. Looks like a deformation band setting up.

67. Climo always wins out.

68. What are the analogs?

69. What's it look like for MBY?

70. When will the event start for ______?

71. Do we get a change over?

72. Flizzard.

73. What's your wet bulb?

74. What's your dew point?

75. Going to lose a lot of QPF to saturating the atmosphere.

76. Wasted ____ QPF due to trying to overcome this dry air mass.

77. Why haven't (insert NWS office here) issued any watches or warnings?

78. Go ahead and punt.

79. Winter cancel.

80. Figures that we'd find a way to screw this up.

 

And my very last is just for Mack.

 

81. Break out the pre-emergent!!

 

Feel free to add on. LOL

 

Sean

 

 

I have seen over half of these with this storm:lol:

 

Although three that didn't make that list:

82. You/I got NAM'ed/EURO'ed

83. Chances of a blizzard happening in hell are higher than getting a dusting in Orangeburg

84. February 1973 was a one time event... Don't bring it up unless necessary

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southernskimmer

southernskimmer

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

I have seen over half of these with this storm:lol:

 

Although three that didn't make that list:

82. You/I got NAM'ed/EURO'ed

83. Chances of a blizzard happening in hell are higher than getting a dusting in Orangeburg

84. February 1973 was a one time event... Don't bring it up unless necessary

Gulf is robbing our qpf 

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Snow dog

Snow dog

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

I am in need of a location to target tomorrow.  Im coming up from Atlanta and need to see good snow but not get stuck.  I have to be back to Atlanta by Sunday evening.  

Any suggestions?  I have a truck but no 4x4 and an Explorer without 4x4.  Which vehicle and which location?

With no 4x4, I wouldn't venture too far into NC.  Northern Greenville County might work-calling for 8-10" around TR in the county, and major roads there would allow you to get out fairly easily I would think...

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mjwise

mjwise

Posted
Posted

I had pretty much written this storm off yesterday as a 2-incher for Blacksburg at best after several super dry looking GFS runs up here yesterday. Of course I don't look again at anything until tonight and of course it was wagons north in the last 24 hours. Looks like we might still cash in. The 21z SREF mean here is 16.4" snow through 7pm tomorrow night with 6" and 8" low outliers. That would be a sight if it verified, but the SREF does like to overcook things.

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frazdaddy

frazdaddy

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Is RAH the only NWS office that issues a WWA for black ice?

Not sure , but the Benz saved my hind parts this am on the way in. I hit a patch on US1 around Apex I never saw coming. The car took over and ESP/ABS did it's thing all in a span of micro seconds. It' was awesome. 

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