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2018 Banter Thread

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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FlatLander48

FlatLander48

Posted
Posted

So, I know this is more of a post storm discussion, but holy hell the models were bad with Micheal in terms of strength. They were bad during Florence for a lot of it, but just a couple of days ago, the worst Florida would see was a cat 1. Now it's potentially a cat 5, and most people had little or no time to prepare.

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Randomgirl

Randomgirl

Posted
Posted

Not sure where to put this and it's not really weather related....but when you ignore a user and yet you still see what they post, what else can you do? It's just gotten so bad and off-putting it's making it not worth wading through all the BS. Is there a reason there was no storm mode for the board? I'm a lurker and not a prolific poster so it's gotten bad enough for me to post.

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YetAnotherRDUGuy

YetAnotherRDUGuy

Posted
Posted
  On 10/11/2018 at 1:41 AM, Randomgirl said:

Not sure where to put this and it's not really weather related....but when you ignore a user and yet you still see what they post, what else can you do? It's just gotten so bad and off-putting it's making it not worth wading through all the BS. Is there a reason there was no storm mode for the board? I'm a lurker and not a prolific poster so it's gotten bad enough for me to post.

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I've heard that even if you've ignored a user, if someone quotes a post from that same user, it will still show for you. Not sure if that's what is happening for you or not.

 

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2010 extreme

2010 extreme

Posted
Posted

FFC should have issued flood watches for at least the southern portions of the Atlanta metro area this morning as it was becoming clear that these heavy bands on the western side storm would interact with the front was being shown by a lot of the guidance.  Most of the area currently under the flood waning was never under a watch.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
  On 10/16/2018 at 12:32 PM, Orangeburgwx said:

When the new GFS starts thrown shade for a fantasy CAD storm in October... You know it is going to be a long winter, but hopefully one in our favor for once

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I hope so, but as everybody knows I'm not in favor of a cold/stormy pattern in late October.

But who knows. Lots of comparison to 2010/11 & 1995/96. Those where years with strong CADs.   

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frazdaddy

frazdaddy

Posted
Posted
  On 10/16/2018 at 2:02 PM, FallsLake said:

I hope so, but as everybody knows I'm not in favor of a cold/stormy pattern in late October.

But who knows. Lots of comparison to 2010/11 & 1995/96. Those where years with strong CADs.   

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Analogues always seem to disappoint, but those were great years and perfect follow up for last year. 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
  On 10/16/2018 at 3:49 PM, frazdaddy said:

Analogues always seem to disappoint, but those were great years and perfect follow up for last year. 

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Some folks are discussing solar minimum and using analog years for that as well. In that case it wouldn't be good for us because we're heading into a solar minimum. The best years are supposed to be the year after hitting solar minimum.

But your right analogs for good or bad haven't had much success in the past (like many winter outlooks). Just get me to December 1st and I'll start tracking at the long range models.     

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frazdaddy

frazdaddy

Posted
Posted
  On 10/16/2018 at 4:00 PM, FallsLake said:

Some folks are discussing solar minimum and using analog years for that as well. In that case it wouldn't be good for us because we're heading into a solar minimum. The best years are supposed to be the year after hitting solar minimum.

But your right analogs for good or bad haven't had much success in the past (like many winter outlooks). Just get me to December 1st and I'll start tracking at the long range models.     

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I'm hoping the projected nino albeit minor, works out. Solar minimum on paper looks good though. As a kid of the 70's and 80's I'm a big fan

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Iceagewhereartthou

Iceagewhereartthou

Posted
Posted
  On 10/16/2018 at 3:49 PM, frazdaddy said:

Analogues always seem to disappoint, but those were great years and perfect follow up for last year. 

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Yep, analogues seem pretty worthless for the sake of predicting. 2010-2011 was awesome for about 3 weeks. The Christmas storm, the early Jan Miller A. Then there was supposed to be an even bigger snow around Jan 18th or so, a Tuesday. The models were all on board the weekend before with a big daddy, then it ended up an apps runner. After that it was spring and it never looked back. Great start to winter, but very disappointing after that. 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
  On 10/16/2018 at 5:07 PM, frazdaddy said:

I'm hoping the projected nino albeit minor, works out. Solar minimum on paper looks good though. As a kid of the 70's and 80's I'm a big fan

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We're definitely also in different times. The solar minimum is very low and we may not be able to use analogs; unless we go back to the little ice age :) 

Some of those years in the 70s we're really cold. I lived in Florida (dad Air Force) and remember the cold snaps along with the news of snow in Orlando. 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
  On 10/17/2018 at 2:58 PM, Orangeburgwx said:

Not sure if this is considered Banter or Long Term...

 

But with Eurasia (Siberian) snowfall finally getting its act together and record breaking Canada snow cover, thoughts on colder winter here?

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I forgot, is the theory based on the snow gain during October or is up to a particular week? 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
  On 10/17/2018 at 3:07 PM, FallsLake said:

I forgot, is the theory based on the snow gain during October or is up to a particular week? 

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I believe it is the rate of change of snow cover in Siberia for the month.  Further, I think it's most impactful when you look at a particular area of Siberia (but I can't remember the exact area).  Further still, I think the timing matters, that being, I believe, the last week or two of the month.  So something like a slow start with a rapid increase over the last half of the month (in the correct area) would be more beneficial than a fast start that tapers off toward the end of the month, even if that scenario yielded more actual area covered with snow.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
  On 10/17/2018 at 6:56 PM, Cold Rain said:

I believe it is the rate of change of snow cover in Siberia for the month.  Further, I think it's most impactful when you look at a particular area of Siberia (but I can't remember the exact area).  Further still, I think the timing matters, that being, I believe, the last week or two of the month.  So something like a slow start with a rapid increase over the last half of the month (in the correct area) would be more beneficial than a fast start that tapers off toward the end of the month, even if that scenario yielded more actual area covered with snow.

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It can snow in any part of the world in October, snowcover in Eurasia can be 10’ deep, just as long as it don’t snow outside the mountains in NC/SC, or no monster east coast storm, or our winter is toast! I don’t care what analogs you pull out your wazoo!

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
  On 10/17/2018 at 7:04 PM, mackerel_sky said:

It can snow in any part of the world in October, snowcover in Eurasia can be 10’ deep, just as long as it don’t snow outside the mountains in NC/SC, or no monster east coast storm, or our winter is toast! I don’t care what analogs you pull out your wazoo!

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We might get a monster east coast storm. :(

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted
  On 10/17/2018 at 6:56 PM, Cold Rain said:

I believe it is the rate of change of snow cover in Siberia for the month.  Further, I think it's most impactful when you look at a particular area of Siberia (but I can't remember the exact area).  Further still, I think the timing matters, that being, I believe, the last week or two of the month.  So something like a slow start with a rapid increase over the last half of the month (in the correct area) would be more beneficial than a fast start that tapers off toward the end of the month, even if that scenario yielded more actual area covered with snow.

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Actually, I think it's a pile of bologna. :).  I can't think of a winter predictor that has had less success in the last 5 years as the Siberian snow cover index.   IMO. 

  On 10/17/2018 at 7:14 PM, Cold Rain said:

We might get a monster east coast storm. :(

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Nope, we hug all models that don't show it...for the good of winter.  

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