ncforecaster89 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, 25thamendmentfan said: If this keeps trending west you won't want to be in scituate and 6 inches of slop. Consider 35 miles farther north along the north shore seawalls in places like marblehead. Show us video of the crashing waves. Thanks for the advice, greatly appreciated! Will definitely adjust my prospective intercept location based on now-casting and radar. If the 06z Nam verifies, I would definitely not be documenting the event in Scituate. Should be asleep, since I have a 17 hour drive from here just to get to the S shore! Lol Didn't mean to go OT with my plans, there, but TY for the post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ncforecaster89 said: Thanks for the advice, greatly appreciated! Will definitely adjust my prospective intercept location based on now-casting and radar. If the 06z Nam verifies, I would definitely not be documenting the event in Scituate. Should be asleep, since I have a 17 hour drive from here just to get to the S shore! Lol Didn't mean to go OT with my plans, there, but TY for the post! Don't amend anything unless a red tag met tells you, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Blizzard warnings posted Essex south shore and cape. Not at BOS though, lol. Be shocked if I don't verify here close to Logan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Oh boy. Just woke up and checked the overnight runs, and I don't usually say this, but bring 'em up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 06z Reggie maybe a tic west of the 0z run as far as I can see, Crosses just SE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Thanks very much, SnowGoose and Dryslot, for your responses. Consider anything below 980 mb to be an intense NE Nor'easter. First NE coastal I tracked, and documented, was the super-intense 955 mb 3/26/14 storm at Chatham. Will be extremely impressed if this system verifies w/ central pressure <955 mb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Don't amend anything unless a red tag met tells you, lol. Why the cheap shot? If it's wagons west and it's 33 and a mix of snow and rain in scituate, and I had just driven 17 hours...I'd want a backup. Wouldn't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It pisses me off to no end that it's not a blizzard warning. My weenie is angry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 25thamendmentfan said: Why the cheap shot? If it's wagons west and it's 33 and a mix of snow and rain in scituate, and I had just driven 17 hours...I'd want a backup. Wouldn't you? We've had days and days of modeling and the nam is alone. A super western outlier. Several Mets In here pointed out they think this snows to the canal. Not a cheap shot. Just the truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: It pisses me off to no end that it's not a blizzard warning. My weenie is angry. If S shore verifies blizzard, highly likely Logan will, also. Always enjoy seeing your vids and pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: If S shore verifies blizzard, highly likely Logan will, also. Always enjoy seeing your vids and pics! Thanks man. Yeah it seems like Logan definitely well. Don't get it at all. Even locations inland should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, 25thamendmentfan said: This storm has extremely high bust potential on many fronts, reminding me of the many snow events of the 1980s which most of you are too young to remember. Three in particular come to mind. January 1987. February 1987. February 1989. All three events trended farther east. Lots of busted forecasts. This was back when tv news was king and local tv anchors and mets were huge stars. February 1987 spared most of New England but slammed cape cod with one of its worst blizzards on record. 1989 spared most of the eastern seaboard despite initial, ominous warnings. Huge model failure. I remember all 3 failures vividly, esp the 1/87, I remember my Dad saying sometimes it is too cold to snow....in a way he was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Blizzard Warnings, Coastal York and Coastal Cumberland counties here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 51 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: There's just no way. Only model showing anything like it She did this with the jan 16 nyc blizzard a few times....she can't help herself, we know better back here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: We've had days and days of modeling and the nam is alone. A super western outlier. Several Mets In here pointed out they think this snows to the canal. Not a cheap shot. Just the truth So sorry to get this thread somewhat OT. In fairness, and defintely understand your concern (which is greatly appreciated), believe he was basing his advice on a track similar to the 06z Nam...where Scituate could conceivably mix, appreciably, and fail to verify blizzard conditions. In all honesty, you both wrote well-meaning posts...and I thank each of you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: I remember all 3 failures vividly, esp the 1/87, I remember my Dad saying sometimes it is too cold to snow....in a way he was right January 1987 se New England special occurred the day after the giants Mark bavaro super bowl in Pasadena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: We've had days and days of modeling and the nam is alone. A super western outlier. Several Mets In here pointed out they think this snows to the canal. Not a cheap shot. Just the truth Forgetting the snow for a moment, which seawall community offers the best viewing point for wave action and videoing purposes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 25thamendmentfan said: Forgetting the snow for a moment, which seawall community offers the best viewing point for wave action and videoing purposes? Hmm, there's a couple different ones to choose from. I'd defer to some of our South Shore posters but closest to Boston is Nantasket/Hull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 For someone visiting from north Carolina I like the north shore because the seawall towns have a real old New England feel. Scituate is wealthier and more generic coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Cut your drive down to 4 hours and sample the coastal blizzard at Virginia Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 So far 2/2 on the models coming in west at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: So far 2/2 on the models coming in west at 06z GFS? I'm on my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: GFS? I'm on my phone Just coming out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Trend is our friend... Gfs out to 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 06z GFS looks like its going to be a tic or two west as well precip wise anyways slp track is basically the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Cut your drive down to 4 hours and sample the coastal blizzard at Virginia Beach. Thanks for the advice, Roger! Know that makes more sense, all things being equal, and have considerd that option. OTOH, don't anticipate 12" snowfall totals and suspect a much greater probability of verifying blizzard in SNE...as opposed to the SE VA shoreline. Will make final decision by 11 am...as I hope to be on the road no later than 2 pm. Would arrive on the S shore around 7 am, if so. Thanks again, Roger, for your thoughtful post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Oh boy oh boy oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That nam may have been the run where you expect it to go apesh*t at some point and then slowly come down to earth. But I’m not surprised at the west move. Hats a congrats mpm and dendrite there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think the NAM came that far west because it started to resolve the feedback issue it was having east of Cape Hattaras on previous runs - so it moved the low pressure center west at the surface. I’m betting it jumps a pinch east on the next run as it better resolves where that low pressure center is with all the phasing going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 btv has gone 3-8 inches and -40 windchills, just another day in vermont lol haha j/k (sort of)), ......i think its a reasonable forecast at this lead time, keying in on the blowing snow and cold which will continue to be the big story up this way. wish i could drive east of here into the jackpot, but alas work....bah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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