TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: Seems like the northern stream trough on the ECMWF from 12z-00z is not as strong or deep. May not act as much as a kicker and let the southern mess come north more more easily without the boot east? This is what I am seeing, but afraid to say, through 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: True. The gefs gave me some optimism but I feel like I’ve had that same feeling 5 times already with this storm just to be let done. I have to imagine we will finally have some clarity by 12z tomorrow. Let’s be honest....the storm is annoying AF.....next up the king.....let’s see where we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Through 24, it is far different than that bizarre look we had earlier at 12z. It is much weaker, seems to be more realistic in terms of strength. Wouldn't say it's moved all that much. Just broader circulation vs tightly wound to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It might make up some ground here in the final 100-200 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It's trying to turn left...I think it will be better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Beast for E Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Jesus a QPF beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Massive changes at 5h through hr 30. Way weaker, but it might change track in a positive manner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: Massive changes at 5h through hr 30. Way weaker, but it might change track in a positive manner? I'd rather 964 over the bm, than 950 well east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yeah that's better than 12z, lol...it held that southern stream in closer and didn't let it escape east as fast as 12z. It's what the model guidance has been generally doing...as it gets closer, it keeps that southern stream a little more tucked in when we cross that 36 hour threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that's better than 12z, lol...it held that southern stream in closer and didn't let it escape east as fast as 12z. It's what the model guidance has been generally doing...as it gets closer, it keeps that southern stream a little more tucked in when we cross that 36 hour threshold. We knew that escape was BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that's better than 12z, lol...it held that southern stream in closer and didn't let it escape east as fast as 12z. It's what the model guidance has been generally doing...as it gets closer, it keeps that southern stream a little more tucked in when we cross that 36 hour threshold. The lest northern stream interaction the better. Keep trending that trough over the Great Lakes weaker and weaker and let the southern stream do its thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It seems almost as if the slower intensification allows for this to be captured into the upper level trof more efficiently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: We knew that escape was BS. Keep that southern stream tucked in allows the mid-level circulation to flex it's muscles more....it's stronger at H5 when it passes near the Cape which lets it go to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That energy driving down the backside at 5h has sort of congealed vs kicked as it did in previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 the 00z GFS produces over 2' of snow for CHH, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: It seems almost as if the slower intensification allows for this to be captured into the upper level trof more efficiently My money is on a low 960's system as it passes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: The lest northern stream interaction the better. Keep trending that trough over the Great Lakes weaker and weaker and let the southern stream do its thing. Yeah let it ride up the east side...rather than kicking it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS and Euro now in pretty good agreement. The Euro was super stingy back this way at 12z... a definite jump up at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: the 00z GFS produces upwards of 2' of snow for ORH, Thank me later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My money is on a low 960's system as it passes us. I'll take the under <960mb. Seems to be delayed but not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah let it ride up the east side...rather than kicking it east. Exactly. The key going forward is less northern stream and more insane latent heat release over the Gulf Stream pumping up that downstream ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That's a sick, disgusting, obnoxious mid level fronto look from cape ann, bos, south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Where does it pop the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah let it ride up the east side...rather than kicking it east. 00z EURO matches my first call map perfectly now...deform from ORH to KEV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: That's a sick, disgusting, obnoxious mid level fronto look from cape ann, bos, south shore. Nice pivot in E MA on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 00z EURO matches my first call map perfectly now...deform from ORH to KEV. It looks SE of that. Maybe ORH to KEV at its' furthest extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The deformation axis on this Euro run is pretty tasty. It's just about maxed from MTP to MLT at 18z Thursday. Cold side of the axis within the best f-gen says congrats dendrite of course. That's a healthy shift west in the forcing from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: That's a sick, disgusting, obnoxious mid level fronto look from cape ann, bos, south shore. Banding there is more low level convergence imo...mid level death band is west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Some mid level goods pretty far NW too I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.