Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The rationalization starts. Just punch a pillow, man. Do it. Lol, he's seen plenty of snow. Been nonstop since Thanksgiving up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Harv: 12-15"+ inside I 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hey, maybe it will end up over me after reading what Chris said about 12z shortwave verification... I'm just playing, just making the point I usually fall on that axis. My spot is similar to Steve's overall but we don't rack up in the same storms usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: I'm just playing, just making the point I usually fall on that axis. My spot is similar to Steve's overall but we don't rack up in the same storms usually. Oh, I know...you, Steve and Kev....like ORH south in that you always seem to catch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Harv: 12-15"+ inside I 495 12-15 "Or more"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Sounds like Harv is goin NAM/GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Sounds like Harv is goin NAM/GFS? Seems more likely one of them is right rather than blending the two, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The 0z GFS doesn't have all those little vort maxes at 500h east of FL as it bottoms out and emerges off of FL......there are some there but its markedly less.....IDK for me that was a bothersome feature that I felt like it would wash itself out as we got closer....it did and it seems like a cleaner run.....this storm is so annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Nothing overly crazy at 00z so far... Harvey’s call looks good... I don’t really see a reason to start pushing 20” amounts.. still another days worth of model runs to sort it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: 12-15 "Or more"... "+" covered that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This is what makes me nervous...this is 700mb VV on the GFS. Pretty extensive area of some slightly negative VV's just to the NW of where the banding would be (logically). That is going to really not only damper someones day but kill someones forecast somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Nothing overly crazy at 00z so far... Harvey’s call looks good... I don’t really see a reason to start pushing 20” amounts.. still another days worth of model runs to sort it out. There will be a localized area that gets 20"...remember I posted this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: "+" covered that.. Yeah well he emphasized it on air..that was the Honk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is what makes me nervous...this is 700mb VV on the GFS. Pretty extensive area of some slightly negative VV's just to the NW of where the banding would be (logically). That is going to really not only damper someones day but kill someones forecast somewhere Yeah, I mentioned that about an earlier run. Looked like March '13 to me. Midlevels are gonna be wound up really tight with a low this deep; I do worry that someone is gonna suck major subsidence. EDIT: Also, nice self portrait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: This is what makes me nervous...this is 700mb VV on the GFS. Pretty extensive area of some slightly negative VV's just to the NW of where the banding would be (logically). That is going to really not only damper someones day but kill someones forecast somewhere If that verifies...Ginxy and JC aren’t gonna be happy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: There will be a localized area that gets 20"...remember I posted this. For sure.... but I think his + basically covers that. Seems like we are seeing a bit of leveling off so far at 00z... which is somewhat expected. Should be a great storm for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: Yeah well he emphasized it on air..that was the Honk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is what makes me nervous...this is 700mb VV on the GFS. Pretty extensive area of some slightly negative VV's just to the NW of where the banding would be (logically). That is going to really not only damper someones day but kill someones forecast somewhere Thats gonna happen somewhere but where who knows......remember Feb 2013? Greatest death band ever......we knew it right away too.....At this point you gotta hope we're not smokin that when it comes......its the most frustrating thing ever......are you in West Hartford for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looking at the 0z UKMET, It may be a another tic west from the 12z run but tough to tell from that map from france. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: For sure.... but I think his + basically covers that. Seems like we are seeing a bit of leveling off so far at 00z... which is somewhat expected. Should be a great storm for many. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Yeah, I mentioned that about an earlier run. Looked like March '13 to me. Midlevels are gonna be wound up really tight with a low this deep; I do worry that someone is gonna suck major subsidence. 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: If that verifies...Ginxy and JC aren’t gonna be happy... It's definitely going to verify it's just a question of where. What goes up must go down! If you have an area of extreme upward vertical motion you have to have an area of extreme downward vertical motion somewhere. There could be so many localized pockets of subsidence too...what a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Yeah, I mentioned that about an earlier run. Looked like March '13 to me. So the GFS is saying that the entire area of eastern SNE, where all of the models have been putting the axis of heavy precip, is gonna get the squelch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: If that verifies...Ginxy and JC aren’t gonna be happy... Congrats old forge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, JBinStoughton said: So the GFS is saying that the entire area of eastern SNE, where all of the models have been putting the axis of heavy precip, is gonna get the squelch? I'll sell that....I think that's west of the main band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ice1972 said: Thats gonna happen somewhere but where who knows......remember Feb 2013? Greatest death band ever......we knew it right away too.....At this point you gotta hope we're not smokin that when it comes......its the most frustrating thing ever......are you in West Hartford for this? I am...supposed to fly out to TX too at like 5 AM Friday morning. I might wake up at 6:00 AM and make a snow forecast since I have to do stuff after work and it would be like 10 PM before I could which would be cheating but if I had to do something now...I would maybe do 4-8'' east of the River. I would **** bricks though about the upper end of the range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Here's where we stand. SS really digging, an interesting little meso looking thing southeast of Miami. NS looks potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: Congrats old forge? Lmao...right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll sell that....I think that's west of the main band. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Hoth said: Lol, he's seen plenty of snow. Been nonstop since Thanksgiving up there. The hard part for me won't be settling for 4" while someone 50 miles E gets 18", I get bummed by missing out on the opportunity to see +SN. No jackpot fetish here, I just like seeing whiteout conditions. The eastern folks can keep their 18-20", just let me get my 4-5" in an hour. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's definitely going to verify it's just a question of where. What goes up must go down! If you have an area of extreme upward vertical motion you have to have an area of extreme downward vertical motion somewhere. There could be so many localized pockets of subsidence too...what a mess Yeah, and yet sometimes we see things modeled and they kind of wash out in the end. Who knows. Won't pull my hair out either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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