Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea I think we’ll eventually lose the “kick” altogether. We’ve lost the warm core look on most guidance through hr 42 or so, but it seems to come back after that point to some degree, resulting in the further east movement (away from the cold air) which is counter to mid latitude cyclone development.

Good points....and I still can’t get over the strength of this thing...I have a hard time imagining this will get that strong???  I mean pressures in the 940’s at out latitude...I’m skeptical.

[The 4 Seasons]

I don't know what thing this is, as no one here even talks about it, but the 18Z GEM (not RGEM) is almost a complete whiff, wtf? That QPF field is completely unrealistic but still how can it be so different from the RGEM..

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

My gut says 4-8 easy

Gonna' need the Euro another 50-75mi W for that to happen. 

[78Blizzard]

Does anyone know if any sampled data from today's special recons will make it into the 0z runs?

[#NoPoles]

If this storms pulls the rug out from underneath me like the Christmas storm, I may actually cry.

[Hoth]

Shamelessly purloined from Bluewave. Dude's digging up gold.

Uncertainty....

As mentioned above this storm is still 2 days away and the
average model error at this time range is 50-75 miles. Thus
this applies to the axis of heaviest snow and the location of
the rain-snow line. Hence adjustments in later forecasts are
expected. Will models continue to trend westward in later runs?
Given the amplitude of the long wave pattern, system developing
over the Gulf Stream and convection possibly building the
downstream ridge more than models are simulating all suggest an
eastward trend is unlikely with some additional westward
adjustment possible. We`ve been told recon flights will collect
data shortly and this will likely help improve model
performance.

 

•  

[weathafella]

11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

RPM is back to a blockbuster for central and eastern CT, oh that model, i love it

Can you post?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Gonna' need the Euro another 50-75mi W for that to happen. 

That’s doable. it made a big shift at 12z but shat the bed with qpf. eps was west with the trough and better ridging out west than the gefs and yet.....it was east with the srfc low and qpf. Makes zero sense to me.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s doable. it made a big shift at 12z but shat the bed with qpf. eps was west with the trough and better ridging out west than the gefs and yet.....it was east with the srf low and qpf. Makes zero sense to me.

Things still correcting...nothing set in stone anywhere yet.

[weatherwiz]

Outside of exactly how far west/east this tracks everything else is just going to come down to nowcasting...we can probably dissect every single computer forecast model, ensemble, drawings done ion people's basements, etc but much of what happens and how it unfolds will be all nowcasting.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Gonna' need the Euro another 50-75mi W for that to happen. 

Wouldn’t be using anything Euro op wise after it’s whacko solution run today. 

[WintersComing]

RPM is back to a blockbuster for central and eastern CT, oh that model, i love it

Screens?


.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Shamelessly purloined from Bluewave. Dude's digging up gold.

Uncertainty....

As mentioned above this storm is still 2 days away and the
average model error at this time range is 50-75 miles. Thus
this applies to the axis of heaviest snow and the location of
the rain-snow line. Hence adjustments in later forecasts are
expected. Will models continue to trend westward in later runs?
Given the amplitude of the long wave pattern, system developing
over the Gulf Stream and convection possibly building the
downstream ridge more than models are simulating all suggest an
eastward trend is unlikely with some additional westward
adjustment possible. We`ve been told recon flights will collect
data shortly and this will likely help improve model
performance.

 

•  

Mmm not so fast.. In a very generic sense, the qpf totals ... but that rain snow line statement is not very good in anomalous scenarios ... more importantly, an anomaly such as this.

that sort of -6 SD pressure core approach from the S is going to quite likely have a ginormous ageostrophic component to it... In fact, where the wind would normally blow NE around the NW arc of the maturing CCB head, you may very well find N wind blowing and down so pretty ferociously along I-95 and points E and S.. That's going to scrunch that critical thickness packing very tightly compressed prooobably CC Canal or perhaps a little NW but ...  it's a 2 mile blizzard, to chutes, and another 2 of that to cat pawing in sheets in this sort of scenario.

There's other arguments related to eccentric dynamical forcing also fisting the surface from aloft... 

Trust me... this low could pass 20 MI E of ACK and it would snow eastern RI to 10 miles from the Canal or even closer in this situation...easily.   That storm track logic is questionable as it pertains to p-types ... given to this set up and evolution as it is depicted in the means ... all told and accounted for, as it stand this hour.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Things still correcting...nothing set in stone anywhere yet.

There will certainly be some surprises.  I'm with you though, it's hard to believe this will be sub 960 off the Delmarva

[jbenedet]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Good points....and I still can’t get over the strength of this thing...I have a hard time imagining this will get that strong???  I mean pressures in the 940’s at out latitude...I’m skeptical.

I’m skeptical of that as well. I see a more gradual drop in pressure with increase in latitude; not the plummeting from 1000 mb to 955 mb in 24 hr...And I’m not even sure what’s driving that pressure drop...

I think the models are confused on which season it is....

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm not so fast.. In a very generic sense, the qpf totals ... but that rain snow line statement is not very good in anomalous scenarios ... more importantly, an anomaly such as this.

that sort of -6 SD pressure core approach from the S is going to quite likely have a ginormous ageostrophic component to it... In fact, where the wind would normally blow NE around the NW arc of the maturing CCB head, you may very well find N wind blowing and down so pretty ferociously along I-95 and points E and S.. That's going to scrunch that critical thickness packing very tightly compressed prooobably CC Canal or perhaps a little NW but ...  it's a 2 mile blizzard to chutes and another 2 to cat paws in sheets in this sort of scenario.

There's other arguments related to eccentric dynamical forcing also fisting the surface from aloft... 

Trust me... this low could pass 20 MI E of ACK and it would snow eastern RI to 10 miles from the Canal or even closer in this situation...easily.   That storm track logic is questionable given to this set up and evolution as it is depicted in the means ... all told and accounted for, as it stand this hour.

That’s from the BOX afd this afternoon. It’s not gold. It’s Sipprell being Sipprell 

[moneypitmike]

41 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

FWIW: HRDPS also much further west


.

what's that?

[ajisai]

Pete b

https://i.imgur.com/seb6F9Z.jpg

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s from the BOX afd this afternoon. It’s not gold. It’s Sipprell being Sipprell 

I was more interested in the recon flight tidbit than the rain/snow part. Also, the comment about models possibly underdoing heights.

[dendrite]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

what's that?

2.5km RGEM

[mostman]

1 minute ago, ajisai said:

Pete b

https://i.imgur.com/seb6F9Z.jpg

That’s a funny map. It has the QPF of something like the GFS with the thermals of the RGEM. 

[moneypitmike]

Just give me another 75 miles before it turns out to sea.  Is that too much much to ask?

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

2.5km RGEM

Thanks....is it any good?

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’m skeptical of that as well. I see a more gradual drop in pressure with increase in latitude; not the plummeting from 1000 mb to 955 mb in 24 hr...And I’m not even sure what’s driving that pressure drop...

I think the models are confused on which season it is....

Definitely something you’d see more in the north atlantic but this would be the season for warm seclusions up there. I have trouble discounting it considering the number of models from different agencies showing a similar thing.

[Semper911]

29 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Similar to the Canadian meso model

 

Geezus. Belly up to the isobar. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Thanks....is it any good?

I’ve never seen it stand out from the regular RGEM. 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

what's that?

Hi Res Reggie.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Definitely something you’d see more in the north atlantic but this would be the season for warm seclusions up there. I have trouble discounting it considering the number of models from different agencies showing a similar thing.

Could it be enhanced due to the insane vertical gradient which would exist between gulf stream and airmass? 

[CoastalWx]

Agree with Tippy. I think the RASN line is probably more near canal vs into SE MA...unless this goes over Diane's fanny. But I think it's pinned pretty far down there. So for Diane..pulling for ya not to get much mix. Even if you did, you'll probably have a 55kt whiteout for 6 hrs afterwards.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Agree with Tippy. I think the RASN line is probably more near canal vs into SE MA...unless this goes over Diane's fanny. But I think it's pinned pretty far down there. So for Diane..pulling for ya not to get much mix. Even if you did, you'll probably have a 55kt whiteout for 6 hrs afterwards.

I haven't seen any model bring much "warming" into the area above 925mb.  Seems to restricted to below that level, so unless there is some wonky warm layer, I see precip rates overcoming that.  We'll see lower ratios than the MLs (10:1 vs say 20:1) but will see a solid thumping.  Would be nice to see this area get the fronto band followed by the ML deformation.