WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The op finally agrees with the ensembles. No surprise there. Is it me or does it seem like GFS and Euro to some extent are having a hard time figuring out that convective mess at the beginning of the storm formation down near FL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Yup. Before everyone says the GFS is a POS... the GFS system did what it was supposed to. The ensembles have been steadfast. Maybe but it’s a POS nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Yup. Before everyone says the GFS is a POS... the GFS system did what it was supposed to. The ensembles have been steadfast. Pretty good performance and example of why ensembles are the way to go beyond two days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 PF that’s my version of upslope lol. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Is there any feature that could potentially slow this down just a bit as it heads north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty good performance and example of why ensembles are the way to go beyond two days out. Yeah, except that the current OP is outside of the spread from just 2 GEFS runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I haven't looked into BUFKIT or anything to deep yet, but what is the early thought on ratios for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Is it me or does it seem like GFS and Euro to some extent are having a hard time figuring out that convective mess at the beginning of the storm formation down near FL? Many times it can be a broad area of low pressure and models struggle where to put the exact low. For instance it could be a huge area of 996mb with a weenie 995.6 pocket and the model will drop a L there. In reality my example shows you that the exact position can vary and doesn’t mean a whole lot there. Once things kick into high gear and intensification occurs, it becomes easier for models to show the exact area of low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: Is there any feature that could potentially slow this down just a bit as it heads north? Yeah, Atlantic blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The gfs has been doing this for like a decade. At least its a standard relatively correctable bias. I'm not sure why we can't build a model that doesnt do this. It has the worst progressive cyclogenesis bias against all the major world models. And getting the high impact stuff right does matter regardless if your 5 day height rmse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: 18Z RGEM at 54. Could u post 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Someone asked for this when it was up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Maybe but it’s a POS nonetheless. 48 hr lead time Operational models that cost millions are the best, just another ensemble member geezuz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Could u post 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 950@that latitude is nuts Pretty impressive trends to tremendously deepen this earlier near Carolina's/and delmarva(last 24 hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Someone asked for this when it was up Yeah it was me thanks man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Man I am so jealous of you guys right now. You can see run by run each model is just coming around to a major to historic event up there. I probably won't get to chase so enjoy it for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I've only followed guidance for past 12 hours or so, and it's a remarkable storm and trajectory... seems like it should capture and occlude off VA/NC border and be a congrats Mid Atl type storm, but it just keeps deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxBlue said: hat that will go up..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I think Will said it earlier, we keep seeing corrections further north and west on practically every cycle before the ene kick. I looked back at initialization and the correction begins there, but it eventually ‘fades’ out after 36 hours or so. If we keep these corrections coming at initialization tonight and tomorrow....then I think this comes inside the BM just a bit more before the kick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Man let’s lock Reggie. Crushjob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, wxsniss said: I've only followed guidance for past 12 hours or so, and it's a remarkable storm and trajectory... seems like it should capture and occlude off VA/NC border and be a congrats Mid Atl type storm, but it just keeps deepening. Its too far Offshore at their latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah who is me thanks manYeah who is me thanks man Still drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 33 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yup. Before everyone says the GFS is a POS... the GFS system did what it was supposed to. The ensembles have been steadfast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Still drunk? Not a drop, Auto spell ftl, Driving down the road at 80 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Is this one going to be your baby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Is this one going to be your baby? Don't kill yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Don't kill yourself I’m stopped at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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