Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I cannot wait to watch this thing bomb out on satellite over the next few days. This will be awesome, whatever the ultimate result IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It also depends on where you are. There will still be a sharp cutoff, so for some off to the W and NW by a significant margin, it means paltry QPF still. I think what some of us are stating is that the area on the fence near HFD through CON or so could be happier than currently depicted. Maybe further west a bit? looks like i'll be staying in Dover for this one, no need to head to Boscawen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, JBinStoughton said: Great. Now in addition to all the other ways we can get screwed out of a big hit, we have “the storm was too strong to produce”. Geez Are you Tauntonblizz's twin weenie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I think that's common among all languages. lolExcept when it shows a direct hit and the residents in that location think the gfs is good, haSent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: I would be very surprised if the EPS isn't wetter than the OP. Yeah it has been every single run for the past 5 days...i agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: Great. Now in addition to all the other ways we can get screwed out of a big hit, we have “the storm was too strong to produce”. Geez While I appreciate the empathy....Stop! You're in Stoughton for God's sake. Get out to the stores now before the bread and milk are gone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 If this run didn’t have that warm core look all the way up to the latitude of Virginia Beach—which is ridiculous in January—the early H5 improvements would have made a lot more sense in terms of sensible weather outcomes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, JBinStoughton said: Great. Now in addition to all the other ways we can get screwed out of a big hit, we have “the storm was too strong to produce”. Geez Always a fair concern with these strong Miller As. Ideally don't want to see occlusion begin south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, JBinStoughton said: Great. Now in addition to all the other ways we can get screwed out of a big hit, we have “the storm was too strong to produce”. Geez It's happened before. We're one of the lucky spots on the globe where the storms tend to form and reach maturity near us. Sometimes they go beast mode in the SE and occlude and redevelop too far south for us. It's not like we've been screwed out of big events recently. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Are you Tauntonblizz's twin weenie? Separated at birth? Maybe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, DomNH said: Always a fair concern with these strong Miller As. Ideally don't want to see occlusion begin south of us. Question: doesn't occlusion usually happen after max strength? The Euro keeps deepening this into the 940s to our northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: We seem to be spending a lot of time worrying about western New England... this story is still the wind and snow in eastern New England. It looks like an awesome storm there. All about the base here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Wait a minute. thats maybe .3 to CON after a descripition of the run that would indicate it was coming way west. Thats not weenies being weenies. Something weird about this whole system/setup. bingo and the models are screaming there is a solid jump east no matter how tucked in it is in the more formative stages, they have to be onto something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 12/31/2017 at 9:13 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: That’s a lot of western members..some almost too far west Could somebody see thundersnow from this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Keep your expectations in check too...if you are thinking this is going to be another Jan 2015 or similar HECS, then you are just setting yourself up for disappointment. It's possible this produces a lucky stripe of huge totals...it remains to be seen on how this exactly evolves as it approaches our latitude, but most likely we're talking about amounts under 16" for now. This is prob going to move fast...it's not a 30-36 hour storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Question: doesn't occlusion usually happen after max strength? The Euro keeps deepening this into the 940s to our northeast. Not necessarily. The surface low can continue to deepen after the occluded front forms but the occlusion process begins before the storm reaches minimum pressure. Someone less rusty can correct me or expand on the occlusion process...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Upper levels show a good deal of divergence. Would think this would be a harbinger of higher QPF as we get closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Keep your expectations in check too...if you are thinking this is going to be another Jan 2015 or similar HECS, then you are just setting yourself up for disappointment. It's possible this produces a lucky stripe of huge totals...it remains to be seen on how this exactly evolves as it approaches our latitude, but most likely we're talking about amounts under 16" for now. This is prob going to move fast...it's not a 30-36 hour storm. I'm still in the 6"+ mindset right now for SEMA. I'll wait till 00z before I jump on the stuff I see now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This happens every damn storm and its tiring Legitimate discussion relating to a model is poo-poo'd (because) it is not positive for snow. Get over it..im talking about some mets and cheerleaders The euro and gfs opening up the system and shunting this east, is a viable noteworthy topic relating to a storm's impact on the region as well as learning about the weather. Trying to eliminate discussion by saying "there saying its not gonna be a storm or queens" is just old and false lol. A storm with mid levels that explode and has a 963mb(pressure) SE of hatteras has usually the best goods to our south. So in addition to speed of storm this is a reason to limit totals. Is there anything incorrect about this statement. I read other subforums, they Don't do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, Hoth said: Question: doesn't occlusion usually happen after max strength? The Euro keeps deepening this into the 940s to our northeast. Google warm seclusions. You'll find a lot of Ryan Maue's work. Things can get funky once the warm core pinches off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: Not necessarily. The surface low can continue to deepen after the occluded front forms but the occlusion process begins before the storm reaches minimum pressure. Someone less rusty can correct me or expand on the occlusion process...lol THanks! Good to know. Same to you, Dendrite. Will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This happens every damn storm and its tiring Legitimate discussion relating to a model is poo-poo'd (because) it is not positive for snow. Get over it..im talking about some mets and cheerleaders The euro and gfs opening up the system and shunting this east, is a viable noteworthy topic relating to a storm's impact on the region as well as learning about the weather. Trying to eliminate discussion by saying "there saying its not gonna be a storm or queens" is just old. A storm with mid levels that explode and has a 963mb(pressure) SE of hatteras has usually the best good to our south. So in addition to speed of storm this is a reason to limit totals. Is there anything incorrect about this statement. EVERY time on this board. I'm very confused about how this is in line with your recent FB post...you seem pretty gung ho on that. In your post here, are you voicing concerns that are not being listened to? Or are you saying the opposite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This happens every damn storm and its tiring Legitimate discussion relating to a model is poo-poo'd (because) it is not positive for snow. Get over it..im talking about some mets and cheerleaders The euro and gfs opening up the system and shunting this east, is a viable noteworthy topic relating to a storm's impact on the region as well as learning about the weather. Trying to eliminate discussion by saying "there saying its not gonna be a storm or queens" is just old. A storm with mid levels that explode and has a 963mb(pressure) SE of hatteras has usually the best good to our south. So in addition to speed of storm this is a reason to limit totals. Is there anything incorrect about this statement. EVERY time on this board. The violent shunt east could be real...but those same models were doing it to our south too....until it got inside 48 hours and now they are not down there...they wait longer. My guess is the shunt east gets less violent as we get closer. It will still try and shunt east because we have very little downstream blocking, so the progressive nature of the flow wil keep it moving. But I personally do not think there is going to be some uber-right turn east at the last second that causes this to be a 4-6" snowstorm for eastern SNE instead of 9-15". As for the QPf, the euro could keep everything the same aloft, and I'd up the QPF for a good portion of central SNE. Its prob too light there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Rocket fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This happens every damn storm and its tiring Legitimate discussion relating to a model is poo-poo'd (because) it is not positive for snow. Get over it..im talking about some mets and cheerleaders The euro and gfs opening up the system and shunting this east, is a viable noteworthy topic relating to a storm's impact on the region as well as learning about the weather. Trying to eliminate discussion by saying "there saying its not gonna be a storm or queens" is just old and false lol. A storm with mid levels that explode and has a 963mb(pressure) SE of hatteras has usually the best goods to our south. So in addition to speed of storm this is a reason to limit totals. Is there anything incorrect about this statement. I read other subforums, they Don't do this. The Queens saying is a joke. I mentioned the occlusion process, but it also may not be handling things well and shunt it east too quickly. It's a highly anomalous storm and may not be handled well. I see everyone mentioning the possibilities, but I would highly advise the HFD CT valley people to keep an eye out on higher totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Google warm seclusions. You'll find a lot of Ryan Maue's work. Things can get funky once the warm core pinches off. Once it occluded don't you start to lose the good conveyor belts? It always seems to get more shredded and banded too. So you come away with more of the "winner and losers" type strength rather than a strong conveyor belt system where everyone sees similar totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I don't think people should be that worried about occlusion here though in the sense that this will be a rotting moisture-starved low pressure system by the time it reaches our latitude because that's definitely not the case. The speed of the system is a much bigger factor in limiting huge QPF numbers imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm very confused about how this is in line with your recent FB post...you seem pretty gung ho on that. In your post here, are you voicing concerns that are not being listened to? Or are you saying the opposite? Lol. I saw that. He’s glass half empty here and half full there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 As expected, EPS is wetter than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: This happens every damn storm and its tiring Legitimate discussion relating to a model is poo-poo'd (because) it is not positive for snow. Get over it..im talking about some mets and cheerleaders The euro and gfs opening up the system and shunting this east, is a viable noteworthy topic relating to a storm's impact on the region as well as learning about the weather. Trying to eliminate discussion by saying "there saying its not gonna be a storm or queens" is just old. A storm with mid levels that explode and has a 963mb(pressure) SE of hatteras has usually the best good to our south. So in addition to speed of storm this is a reason to limit totals. Is there anything incorrect about this statement. EVERY time on this board. It's still intensifying as it makes its closest pass to New England. It shows a 945mb low. That's a ****ing beast. Quite a few people tend to focus mainly on the QPF output which is the least skilled piece of a model. Focus on the Mid and Upper levels 1st and the results will come. Now I'm not saying to not post or talk about QPF/Snow but to give them much credence until ~24hrs out is pointless. That being said, The Euro just made a HUGE jump from 00z to 12z in that regard. I just saw my QPF double in 12hrs. I think we continue to see a ramping up of it to a degree. I'll be damned if this does not have a ML band arcing over the interior along with the typical fronto back in eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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