Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, DomNH said: That being said, the PBP in this thread made it sound like the Euro was 1.5''+ of QPF for the whole region. Yeah ground truth not was I thought. I was thinking the center was gonna come in at 40/69 or something lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: In my rough anecdotal observations, the best mid-level banding is often just to the west of where the models think the greatest QPF gradient will be. Find that QPF gradient and the mid-level magic finds itself right on the lower side of that gradient. In the EURO run it's probably like ORH to Dendrite. Given the upper levels early on, I'd expect the QPF queens to be pretty happy in another run or two. It's going to reflect the ground truth better as we get closer. Euro tries to open it up late and slide east, but that probably is not going to happen based on the progression of all other guidance so far. It's like it can handle the convection until about 36-42 hours and then it runs it east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I didn't see anyone mention qpf? Upper level features were west. There’s only one person here who keeps posting qpf maps. That look screams bands to Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Moved well west, but still has work to do for those west of PVD-BOS corridor. Surface should catch up in subsequent runs, and I dont think its westward move is finished.. I think the Mesos win out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, jbenedet said: I'd be cautious on this euro run. That looks like a TC/hybrid on the euro at hr 48. That could be screwing with the whole synoptic wave development/phase interaction on the evolution of this... I dunno... It sure was interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I could be wrong, but HFD-CEF on west will do better than 2". Just my two pennies. Probably you as well. Yeah I agree to some extent. I think we'll get some cyclonic backside flow that should keep snows going up here so that we piecemeal together a whole bunch of 6-hour measurements of like 1.2" lol and maybe J.Spin ends up with 5". I will say, I am worried about ratios and I don't think this is a slam dunk "out west will have better ratios" because of how cold the air mass is. I'm not just assuming 20:1 or 30:1 fluff like a lot of folks will just toss out there. The snow growth zone is at the surface and mid-level lift is above that. Bullets and columns and all that fun arctic stuff. Though if you do get into a band, its probably a few streaks of better ratios amid a larger shield of arctic sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I'd be cautious on this euro run. That looks like a TC/hybrid on the euro at hr 48. That could be screwing with the whole synoptic wave development/phase interaction on the evolution of this... I dunno... Maybe we should fire up the HWRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: That's the problem with ensembles too close to an event. They move together, and too often they move outside of the spread of the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 And look at the 850 mb winds at hr 48 on the 12z euro. That looks a lot more like a TC than a mid latitude cyclone; that's for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Given the upper levels early on, I'd expect the QPF queens to be pretty happy in another run or two. It's going to reflect the ground truth better as we get closer. Euro tries to open it up late and slide east, but that probably is not going to happen based on the progression of all other guidance so far. It's like it can handle the convection until about 36-42 hours and then it runs it east... Yeah I agree with that... something funky happened between hour 42/48 and like 60/66. It looked like it was priming to track over the Cape or something early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: Maybe we should fire up the HWRF. No kidding.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NWS BOX Potential increasing for heavy snow/near blizzard conditions eastern MA/RI. Uncertainty remains on how far west heavy snow gets back into the interior. Damaging winds/power outages a big concern on the coast with surge of arctic/dangerously cold air Fri/Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The changes on the OP 12z EURO aloft were absurd for this time frame. The 250mb jet is misplaced like 500 miles. I'm feeling majorly confident E NE is going to see an all-timer honestly. This is going to keep improving I have no doubt. I wish I could afford a road trip right now, anyone want to let me stay with them for a few days? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: Moved well west, but still has work to do for those west of PVD-BOS corridor. Surface should catch up in subsequent runs, and I dont think its westward move is finished.. I think the Mesos win out on this one. E CT will do just fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The "whole region" does not really mean the whole region. The QPF as depicted is probably wrong of course because all 60+ hour QPF forecasts are, but I was expecting much brighter colors with the excitement in here lol, and we are all queens to some extent, especially when watching a run come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s only one person here who keeps posting qpf maps. That look screams bands to Berks I really hope your wishcasting can pull this one off for us man. Keep it up. Still have a couple good pulls left off that IPA I hope and wrangle it west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: How can everything be so far west in the first 48 hours and then suddenly I think the jetting east north east south of Nova Scotia? What makes that happen Could be the s/w diving down the back side acting like a kicker? Doesn't quite fully phase in except on the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 What criteria is preventing this storm from potentially being classified as subtropical or tropical at least prior to the latitude of NC/VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 15 hours ago, leo2000 said: Hi Tip what would it take for it to be all snow for Nova Scotia more of a east track?. Just trying to learn. This system dynamics are very different and the rain/snow can be tricky. I'm not very precisely privy to the nuances of NS' storm behavior wrt to how the ocean impacts... In one regard, you're pretty much a peninsula-island hybrid, which means you are essentially a heavily marine climate influenced in the minimum, but, you are also surrounding by some very cold water... So "direct" taint by means of ocean influence, ...it isn't the same as down our way. Nick would probably have a better idea there... As far as stand cyclone model stuff... yeah, you want them underneath as a general rule of thumb. That means the N wall of the cyclone is in a the cool sector.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: No kidding.... Wxblue is from the south.....he can fine tune the tropical aspects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: And look at the 850 mb winds at hr 48 on the 12z euro. That looks a lot more like a TC than a mid latitude cyclone; that's for sure... GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: And look at the 850 mb winds at hr 48 on the 12z euro. That looks a lot more like a TC than a mid latitude cyclone; that's for sure... Maybe it will be an invest soon...lol. Anyway I'm looking forward to being in the eastern eyewall. should be a tad breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 TC's don't phase synoptically for obvious reasons. I'd be very cautious on this run beyond hr 24....qpf and all... Everything looked more like a TC, even that track straight up to the northeast like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: In my rough anecdotal observations, the best mid-level banding is often just to the west of where the models think the greatest QPF gradient will be. Find that QPF gradient and the mid-level magic finds itself right on the lower side of that gradient. In the EURO run it's probably like ORH to Dendrite. Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: GFS ukmet showed that too I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I agree to some extent. I think we'll get some cyclonic backside flow that should keep snows going up here so that we piecemeal together a whole bunch of 6-hour measurements of like 1.2" lol and maybe J.Spin ends up with 5". I will say, I am worried about ratios and I don't think this is a slam dunk "out west will have better ratios" because of how cold the air mass is. I'm not just assuming 20:1 or 30:1 fluff like a lot of folks will just toss out there. The snow growth zone is at the surface and mid-level lift is above that. Bullets and columns and all that fun arctic stuff. Though if you do get into a band, its probably a few streaks of better ratios amid a larger shield of arctic sand. H7 temps are near -16 even to the Berks, so that will help. Some lift is shown there. The euro did some weird stuff as Will and the Pope explained. Almost looked like a hurricane when looking at H5. I'm just going by some instincts here and model bias. I think HFD-CEF and probably a bit west are going to get some good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 I want my effing Blizzard Warning dammit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 That looks beautiful at 42 and 48 hours... H5 is much cleaner phase but then its almost like it opens up again and pushes east a bit. If that kept its trajectory from 36 to 48 hours it's passing right off the upper Cape but it kicks hard east at the last minute to pretty much exactly where it was at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I agree with that... something funky happened between hour 42/48 and like 60/66. It looked like it was priming to track over the Cape or something early on. Yeah...and I think as the critical hours reach our latitude, you will see the track correct west. There's obviously a limit to it without much downstream blocking...this sucker's gonna want to move....but that convection seems to cause the models to correct west further and further up the coast everytime that 36-42 hour window reaches them....like right now, it's near NC/VA...you saw a big jump west down there this run. Like literally 100+ miles...that's a big move by the Euro for inside of 48 hours. There's obviously other factors than can try and offset the movement west too...like the southern stream trends a little weaker or northern stream a little faster...stuff like that. But all else equal, I expect another bump or two west. Euro has already made a pretty big concession to the non-hydrostatic models. They are winning the model war right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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