Go Kart Mozart Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 At 36 hours nam with tremendous differences in the West Coast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Accumulation predictions 5 days out? Priceless. 2.4* Just now, NorEastermass128 said: I’m not forecasting that by any means, but I agree with sbos in that we may have blizzard warnings even if prolific snows don’t materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18z Nam has snow into N FL Wed pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Subtropical moisture getting thrown over a deep arctic dome. I think the upper limit for accumulation could be higher. No need to queen at this range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18z nam at hour 84 looks like its ready to bring a monster up here... Down to 988mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: I’m not forecasting that by any means, but I agree with sbos in that we may have blizzard warnings even if prolific snows don’t materialize. The major features aren't going to change. Bombing low, big high pressure to the west. That has big wind written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Northern stream stronger and trough tilted back ealier. Would be a hit afterwards, i think, fwiw. That southern stream s/w was pretty close to the coast at the end of that 18z nam run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: The major features aren't going to change. Bombing low, big high pressure to the west. That has big wind written all over it. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: The major features aren't going to change. Bombing low, big high pressure to the west. That has big wind written all over it. That may be the biggest pressure differential I've seen. Not sure if there are other factors that contribute to big wind, but that certainly won't hurt. '78 was 1050 to 980, and brought cane force wind, Euro is 1040 to 945. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18 minutes ago, WxBlue said: I'd love to get my first footer from this storm. You may have exceedingly high expectations every winter after this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoth said: That may be the biggest pressure differential I've seen. Not sure if there are other factors that contribute to big wind, but that certainly won't hurt. '78 was 1050 to 980, and brought cane force wind, Euro is 1040 to 945. Cane force winds because the L.P. was at the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: 18z Nam has snow into N FL Wed pm. So did 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Cane force winds because the L.P. was at the BM So it's the squeeze between the high in the Lakes and the low on the BM, or is it the proximity of the low center that matters most? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, Hoth said: You're putting up PBs left and right. Probably will set a pretty high mark in the cold department over the next week. Won't be at all surprised if you put up 12"+ sometime soon, too. That's what happen when you move from Naboo to Hoth lol. Exciting times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: That may be the biggest pressure differential I've seen. Not sure if there are other factors that contribute to big wind, but that certainly won't hurt. '78 was 1050 to 980, and brought cane force wind, Euro is 1040 to 945. The distance between the gradient matters a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You may have exceedingly high expectations every winter after this year. Good news! I have two decades worth of disappointments to settle my expectations. Even the worst year here will deliver a bucket load of gravy to my front door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: So it's the squeeze between the high in the Lakes and the low on the BM, or is it the proximity of the low center that matters most? Think of a hurricane, the tightest gradient and pressure falls are closest to the center as the lines tighten the winds increase. Pressure falls over distance determine wind speed. I see the Euro has wind chills -50 plus in the central and northern CTRV Sunday. Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, Hoth said: That may be the biggest pressure differential I've seen. Not sure if there are other factors that contribute to big wind, but that certainly won't hurt. '78 was 1050 to 980, and brought cane force wind, Euro is 1040 to 945. That's what caused 78' to be so substantial. I don't have the memory or database in my brain like Will and Scott.. But I don't remember a recent example of a gradient like this. It's a rather unusual setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The distance between the gradient matters a ton. The gradient is also what might cause this thing to miss. So walk the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Think of a hurricane, the tightest gradient and pressure falls are closest to the center as the lines tighten the winds increase. Pressure falls over distance determine wind speed. I see the Euro has wind chills -50 plus in the central and northern CTRV Sunday. Ouch Thanks, of course that makes perfect sense. I think Boxing Day, despite how I loath it, remains the windiest nor'easter in my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 With all of that being said, still a long way to go on the ensembles. There is a spread both ots and closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Main s/w @ hr 84 on 18z Nam is 200 mi sw of where 12z GFS had it. Wagons west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Main s/w @ hr 84 on 18z Nam is 200 mi sw of where 12z GFS had it. Wagons west. I won't buy anything but a windy day until ensembles come around on a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: I won't buy anything but a windy day until ensembles come around on a consensus. The trend is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, 78Blizzard said: The trend is your friend. These epic cold stretches tend to end up with suppression. But this seems to be from a different world. Safe to say an unprecedented arctic start to this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2017 Author Share Posted December 31, 2017 People throwing out ratios need to keep in mind that if these winds materialize closer to the center of circulation. Winds will knock those down. I would not go to wild with ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: People throwing out ratios need to keep in mind that if these winds materialize closer to the center of circulation. Winds will knock those down. I would not go to wild with ratios. Definitely, flakes will be literally blown to bits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: People throwing out ratios need to keep in mind that if these winds materialize closer to the center of circulation. Winds will knock those down. I would not go to wild with ratios. Well, the thankfully the center is currently300mi off the coast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Those flakes are going to get fractured in those winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, the thankfully the center is currently300mi off the coast lol Mid levels look just fine as currently modeled for a WSW type of snowfall. I know that's not the home run we're looking for but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.