Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb

[Hazey]

I said a few days ago that downeast Maine and New Brunswick would jack. I see no reason to change that thinking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I said a few days ago that downeast Maine and New Brunswick would jack. I see no reason to change that thinking.

Why would you four days out?

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Jamie averages 65” in his novels. Clearly he’s in a drought. 

I think you all should lay off. He made a resolution for the new year to have higher climo. At least give him a chance.

[weathafella]

Anyone notice how robust GEFS was?  

[Hazey]

Why would you four days out?

Gut. That is all.

[WxBlue]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Anyone notice how robust GEFS was?  

.75" line right on I-95 that run. Also more members right by the BM, with a nice overall western shift of cluster toward the BM.

[ineedsnow]

Euro control is a blizzard!

[78Blizzard]

Remember those solutions a few days ago bringing the low into ME?  I have a feeling that we will see the models pull back more to the west, just not that far west.

[weathafella]

Just now, WxBlue said:

.75" line right on I-95 that run. Also more members right by the BM, with a nice overall western shift of cluster toward the BM.

I was surprised by the lack of comments but maybe I missed them.  Then again I didn’t look until 15 minutes ago.

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Anyone notice how robust GEFS was?  

Very similar to 12z/18z runs yesterday

[WxBlue]

Just now, weathafella said:

I was surprised by the lack of comments but maybe I missed them.  Then again I didn’t look until 15 minutes ago.

I'm also surprised by lack of commentary. That's a beautiful look from D4 if you're looking for a shift toward SECS.

[Damage In Tolland]

What exactly is the Euro control? I see it and people always get excited about, but it always seems jacked up

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Gut. That is all.

I hear ya.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What exactly is the Euro control? I see it and people always get excited about, but it always seems jacked up

It's an ensemble member. There is really nothing that special about it. It's basically just the main ensemble member that all the other ones are run off of. 

Anywys, the EPS look a bit better than the OP to me. 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What exactly is the Euro control? I see it and people always get excited about, but it always seems jacked up

It has about as much control as I do when I walk into a craft brewery.

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro control is a blizzard!

These posts are useless without info to back it up.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's an ensemble member. There is really nothing that special about it. It's basically just the main ensemble member that all the other ones are run off of. 

Anywys, the EPS look a bit better than the OP to me. 

Scary thought. You start there and either perturb the initial conditions or the number of perturbations introduced. 

It's not so much that it's a weenie model, but it is just a coarse version of the op. You'll get some bombs as it tries to resolve the dynamics in play.

[NorEastermass128]

Way early, but would Thursday day be impacted?

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Scary thought. You start there and either perturb the initial conditions or the number of perturbations introduced. 

It's not so much that it's a weenie model, but it is just a coarse version of the op. You'll get some bombs as it tries to resolve the dynamics in play.

Yeah I never understand the looking at the control run.

Its a lower resolution version of the ECMWF.  It would be like hey here's what the GFS says, and here's what it's coarse lower resolution version says.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Way early, but would Thursday day be impacted?

You can work from home that day 

[Typhoon Tip]

Hm.

It may end up right ... but the overwhelming characteristic during the evolution of this thing, in the models so far, has been that come hell or high water, they.  just. won't. phase.

This particular run really just goes out of it's way to avoid doing so.. At hour 72 hours ... the identifiable northern and southern wave components of the entire trough space ... really are situated almost ideally in space and time to really buckle up and unify just east of the Del Marva. But that doesn't happen, and hour 96 ... the southern component has been foisted well east of the coast and still remains an identifiable separate entity altogether.  

I'm not sure why the physics can't phase this thing... but I really suspect that it's related to the same velocity saturation in the flow.  I think it really takes time for a purer subsume phase like the 72 hour argues is about to happen, but if the x and/or y coordinates are moving to fast (or slow) with respect to one another, they two will bi-pass. 

A metaphor is liken to orbital velocity?  Around Earth it is roughly 17.5 K /hr... anything beyond that velocity, an orbiting body will accelerate away and escape the gravity well.  Anything less, ...it's orbit decays and falls in...  So completing the metaphor, this fast velocity plaguing aspect to the entire circulation is like 20 k/hr velocity and instead of the waves coalescing there... the southern stream rockets passed and escapes. 

Anyway, folks have been mentioning that despite the outward track guidance, that there is enough forcing to get significant impact back over eastern NE...  The models want us to believe that there is no coastal storm at all really.. .That's half way to England ...  euphemistically speaking...  It just snows because of a different source of lift.  

So be it... I'm tired of this thing at this point. I really don't like getting into the head game of model to model stuff... Because it has a funny way of "seemingly being on purpose" as it offers plausibilities than poetically slams the door in one's face as soon as they bother to look. Heh.  funny.   Couple-a more of these and I'll be lookin forward to that early La Nina spring -

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You can work from home that day 

I like my spot for this one too even just for the winds and surf. 

[Hazey]

Mod question. Can we post a Maue image that he has posted on twitter or that no go? He has a great euro simulated satellite image of the storm.

[codfishsnowman]

43 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

After the last few years and that comment.. I hope it tracks over your fanny!!

for real

[weathafella]

EPS also more robust.  Methinks it’s coming.

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Mod question. Can we post a Maue image that he has posted on twitter or that no go? He has a great euro simulated satellite image of the storm.

Until told otherwise, I think anything posted by the owner of a pay-walled site, in the "public" realm, is fair game.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hm.

It may end up right ... but the overwhelming characteristic during the evolution of this thing, in the models so far, has been that come hell or high water, they.  just. won't. phase.

This particular run really just goes out of it's way to avoid doing so.. At hour 72 hours ... the identifiable northern and southern wave components of the entire trough space ... really are situated almost ideally in space and time to really buckle up and unify just east of the Del Marva. But that doesn't happen, and hour 96 ... the southern component has been foisted well east of the coast and still remains an identifiable separate entity altogether.  

I'm not sure why the physics can't phase this thing... but I really suspect that it's related to the same velocity saturation in the flow.  I think it really takes time for a purer subsume phase like the 72 hour argues is about to happen, but if the x and/or y coordinates are moving to fast (or slow) with respect to one another, they two will bi-pass. 

A metaphor is liken to orbital velocity?  Around Earth it is roughly 17.5 K /hr... anything beyond that velocity, an orbiting body will accelerate away and escape the gravity well.  Anything less, ...it's orbit decays and falls in...  So completing the metaphor, this fast velocity plaguing aspect to the entire circulation is like 20 k/hr velocity and instead of the waves coalescing there... the southern stream rockets passed and escapes. 

Anyway, folks have been mentioning that despite the outward track guidance, that there is enough forcing to get significant impact back over eastern NE...  The models want us to believe that there is no coastal storm at all really.. .That's half way to England ...  euphemistically speaking...  It just snows because of a different source of lift.  

So be it... I'm tired of this thing at this point. I really don't like getting into the head game of model to model stuff... Because it has a funny way of "seemingly being on purpose" as it offers plausibilities than poetically slams the door in one's face as soon as they bother to look. Heh.  funny.   Couple-a more of these and I'll be lookin forward to that early La Nina spring -

We hope you’re doing well but that last paragraph is troubling. 

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

EPS also more robust.  Methinks it’s coming.

It’s coming. Confidence getting high for at least a moderate impact for E of 91. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hm.

It may end up right .levelt the overwhelming characteristic  during the evolution of this thing, in the models so far, has been that come hell or high water, they.  just. won't. phase.

This particular run really just goes out of it's way to avoid doing so.. At hour 72 hours ... the identifiable northern and southern wave components of the entire trough space ... really are situated almost ideally in space and time to really buckle up and unify just east of the Del Marva. But that doesn't happen, and hour 96 ... the southern component has been foisted well east of the coast and still remains an identifiable separate entity altogether.  

I'm not sure why the physics can't phase this thing... but I really suspect that it's related to the same velocity saturation in the flow.  I think it really takes time for a purer subsume phase like the 72 hour argues is about to happen, but if the x and/or y coordinates are moving to fast (or slow) with respect to one another, they two will bi-pass. 

A metaphor is liken to orbital velocity?  Around Earth it is roughly 17.5 K /hr... anything beyond that velocity, an orbiting body will accelerate away and escape the gravity well.  Anything less, ...it's orbit decays and falls in...  So completing the metaphor, this fast velocity plaguing aspect to the entire circulation is like 20 k/hr velocity and instead of the waves coalescing there... the southern stream rockets passed and escapes. 

Anyway, folks have been mentioning that despite the outward track guidance, that there is enough forcing to get significant impact back over eastern NE...  The models want us to believe that there is no coastal storm at all really.. .That's half way to England ...  euphemistically speaking...  It just snows because of a different source of lift.  

So be it... I'm tired of this thing at this point. I really don't like getting into the head game of model to model stuff... Because it has a funny way of "seemingly being on purpose" as it offers plausibilities than poetically slams the door in one's face as soon as they bother to look. Heh.  funny.   Couple-a more of these and I'll be lookin forward to that early La Nina spring -

Thanks for the post.

Bob mentioned the trough orientation but ummm ya i want to know why its not

Phasing.

Ryan mentioned Southern stream was sort of separate and Instead tremendous UpperLevels forcing was responsible For our snow.

What do we need for a phase and capture. Is the lead southern energy ahead of the main S. Stream shortwave Messing the phase up?

 

[Hazey]