CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 PF is right. I wouldn’t worry about the GGEM thermal profiles. That model was terrible on the Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Posted in New York forum. It basically followed the NAM idea. NAM hit eastern areas pretty fwiw. Verbatim Boston would get 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 20 minutes ago, wx2fish said: If you can get some lift the soundings off the GFS are pretty good looking. DGZ around 700mb and fairly saturated despite the GFS track. Think ratios would by pretty good, wind could be an issue I guess, but its really too early to look that in depth Yeah I've been mentioning the soundings look real good for snow growth in Eastern New England. Back west it's almost too cold and the DGZ is closer to the surface and the lift would be above that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: How ya feeling today, Fella? Heavy is the Crown? Just one CR on the rocks while the euro rolls in is fine-takes the sting out of the ecmwf solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Anyone got ukmet total precip map for entire run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Navgem maps anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: PF is right. I wouldn’t worry about the GGEM thermal profiles. That model was terrible on the Christmas storm. Dropping .5-1.0" QPF in 6-hours with 850s of -5C... no way it's 37F and raining in TAN like it says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The winds aloft ripping dendrites aloft is sort of overplayed. As someone who lives near the coast, I see dendrites all the time in 50+mph winds. It’s when it hits the ground and the structure gets destroyed, that ruins ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Dropping .5-1.0" QPF in 6-hours with 850s of -5C... no way it's 37F and raining in TAN like it says. Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: NAM hit eastern areas pretty fwiw. Verbatim Boston would get 6+ Its a bit east of the NAM unfortunately. Maybe 1 to 3 for Boston. I do nkt put much weight into the Ukmet alone as its jumping around like the other models. Will probably come back tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I still think we're prob gonna see a cleaner phase in the end with the southern stream than what is currently being depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 UK has been back n forth, it doesnt have an ens package so the op runs can be used as goalposts imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Heavy is the weenie over my face. Is Alison pissed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Navgem maps anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Just one CR on the rocks while the euro rolls in is fine-takes the sting out of the ecmwf solution. JMA GGEM and your new love Navgem take the sting away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I still think we're prob gonna see a cleaner phase in the end with the southern stream than what is currently being depicted. I agree But how do pull this Low closer to bench mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I agree But how do pull this Low closer to bench mark James has a Lasso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: JMA GGEM and your new love Navgem take the sting away? Last night, it was only crown and CMC. kind of appropros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I agree But how do pull this Low closer to bench mark A cleaner phase is going to rip the southern stream back NW faster. You kind of saw it in the ggem solution today though not quite all the way there. I could be wrong, but we don't typically see that much interaction with the two streams and have them remain separate for as long as the models are attempting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I agree But how do pull this Low closer to bench mark A cleaner phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I still think we're prob gonna see a cleaner phase in the end with the southern stream than what is currently being depicted. Agree. BS solutions. Get ready- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 22 minutes ago, weathafella said: How I’d you SE guys (Taunton etc) do on Boxing Day 2010? Huge gradient ...BRISTOL COUNTY... TAUNTON 17.3 100 PM 12/27 NWS OFFICE MANSFIELD 16.5 810 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO NORTON 14.5 924 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER NORTH DIGHTON 14.4 1000 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO EASTON 14.1 1255 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER DIGHTON 13.1 809 AM 12/27 NWS EMPLOYEE WESTPORT 11.0 914 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO FALL RIVER 10.8 700 PM 12/27 SOUTH END OF CITY SOUTH DARTMOUTH 10.5 129 PM 12/27 GENERAL PUBLIC SWANSEA 10.0 756 PM 12/27 HAM RADIO REHOBOTH 10.0 901 AM 12/27 NWS EMPLOYEE SOUTH ATTLEBORO 10.0 745 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO NEW BEDFORD 6.5 640 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER FAIRHAVEN 5.0 635 AM 12/27 SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Scott, you gotta like your location for this. C.J-action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Huge gradient ...BRISTOL COUNTY... TAUNTON 17.3 100 PM 12/27 NWS OFFICE MANSFIELD 16.5 810 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO NORTON 14.5 924 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER NORTH DIGHTON 14.4 1000 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO EASTON 14.1 1255 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER DIGHTON 13.1 809 AM 12/27 NWS EMPLOYEE WESTPORT 11.0 914 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO FALL RIVER 10.8 700 PM 12/27 SOUTH END OF CITY SOUTH DARTMOUTH 10.5 129 PM 12/27 GENERAL PUBLIC SWANSEA 10.0 756 PM 12/27 HAM RADIO REHOBOTH 10.0 901 AM 12/27 NWS EMPLOYEE SOUTH ATTLEBORO 10.0 745 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO NEW BEDFORD 6.5 640 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER FAIRHAVEN 5.0 635 AM 12/27 SPOTTER Holy crap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Huge gradient ...BRISTOL COUNTY... TAUNTON 17.3 100 PM 12/27 NWS OFFICE MANSFIELD 16.5 810 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO NORTON 14.5 924 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER NORTH DIGHTON 14.4 1000 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO EASTON 14.1 1255 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER DIGHTON 13.1 809 AM 12/27 NWS EMPLOYEE WESTPORT 11.0 914 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO FALL RIVER 10.8 700 PM 12/27 SOUTH END OF CITY SOUTH DARTMOUTH 10.5 129 PM 12/27 GENERAL PUBLIC SWANSEA 10.0 756 PM 12/27 HAM RADIO REHOBOTH 10.0 901 AM 12/27 NWS EMPLOYEE SOUTH ATTLEBORO 10.0 745 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO NEW BEDFORD 6.5 640 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER FAIRHAVEN 5.0 635 AM 12/27 SPOTTER Toss CMC thermal profiles after seeing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: A cleaner phase is going to rip the sou thern stream back NW faster. You kind of saw it in the ggem solution today though not quite all the way there. I could be wrong, but we don't typically see that much interaction with the two streams and have them remain separate for as long as the models are attempting. I Understand That I just wonder if this is gonna kick ENE-from off Norfolk after Is the set up condusive To drawing a low up the coast and not kicking out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Huge gradient ...BRISTOL COUNTY... TAUNTON 17.3 100 PM 12/27 NWS OFFICE MANSFIELD 16.5 810 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO NORTON 14.5 924 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER NORTH DIGHTON 14.4 1000 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO EASTON 14.1 1255 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER DIGHTON 13.1 809 AM 12/27 NWS EMPLOYEE WESTPORT 11.0 914 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO FALL RIVER 10.8 700 PM 12/27 SOUTH END OF CITY SOUTH DARTMOUTH 10.5 129 PM 12/27 GENERAL PUBLIC SWANSEA 10.0 756 PM 12/27 HAM RADIO REHOBOTH 10.0 901 AM 12/27 NWS EMPLOYEE SOUTH ATTLEBORO 10.0 745 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO NEW BEDFORD 6.5 640 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER FAIRHAVEN 5.0 635 AM 12/27 SPOTTER I knew we did real good here with that storm... just couldn’t remember exactly. If this storm is similar to that... I’ll sign and deliver myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 What are those totals for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Northern stream is digging more on euro through 48 hours vs 00z. This one will prob come west some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 39 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I fail to see how this wouldn't go well for you if it tracked close enough like the GGEM. I don't know your climate that well though, but I don't get how you rain with this look: It could be an isothermal snow bomb. Looks like temps were cold all the way down to 925mb. Surface is 30-34F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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