STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Well here is hoping euro crushes the delmarva shoreline, not really feeling this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I am in a bad location per the CMC and Euro. We wait til 00z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GEFS looked a little west of 6z and a little NW of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Even if this thing does come west and we end up under the main precip shield. Accumulation expectations should be tempered. This thing is absolutely trucking as it passes by. Would only be a 12-15 hr thump of flakes that are bound to be absolutely mangled by 100 mph winds off the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: GEFS looked a little west of 6z and a little NW of the op Isn't the GFS always in the toilet or last to come out and play catch up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Even if this thing does come west and we end up under the main precip shield. Accumulation expectations should be tempered. This thing is absolutely trucking as it passes by. Would only be a 12-15 hr thump of flakes that are bound to be absolutely mangled by 100 mph winds off the deck. 6-10" of sand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: I am in a bad location per the CMC and Euro. We wait til 00z.. This is my next concern. Any model that brings it close enough doesn’t produce much here... just an observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Even if this thing does come west and we end up under the main precip shield. Accumulation expectations should be tempered. This thing is absolutely trucking as it passes by. Would only be a 12-15 hr thump of flakes that are bound to be absolutely mangled by 100 mph winds off the deck. I’ll take my chances being in the ‘main precip shield’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, 512high said: Isn't the GFS always in the toilet or last to come out and play catch up? It can be, but I would be looking for a positive trend in the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Even if this thing does come west and we end up under the main precip shield. Accumulation expectations should be tempered. This thing is absolutely trucking as it passes by. Would only be a 12-15 hr thump of flakes that are bound to be absolutely mangled by 100 mph winds off the deck. Shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Otherwise, this honestly to me is beginning to remind me of that 2014 storm that happened ... I think it was in late March that year? It was modeled for several days to be a big bomb and pass oh so tantalizingly close to New England. It really would have taken almost nothing of a perturbation to get the atmosphere to bring the goods but it just did not ever do so, ... right up to and through verification and it stayed primarily within shouting distance of the shore ...Save the Cape and Islands if memory serves. 'Went on up into NS history books having completed the deliberate and fantastically well- executed design to bend over the storm enthusiasts that frequent this social-media outlet too... haha. I like this analog. That was a huge bomb that had us pulling our hair for days. Also started as a double barrel low before consolidating to the east. Not consigning this one to that bin just yet, but it does bear some similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This is my next concern. Any model that brings it close enough doesn’t produce much here... just an observation I fail to see how this wouldn't go well for you if it tracked close enough like the GGEM. I don't know your climate that well though, but I don't get how you rain with this look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Ggem ensembles look better than 0z if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This is my next concern. Any model that brings it close enough doesn’t produce much here... just an observation There's still the much talked about sampling thats supposed to clear things up between 0z tonight and 12z tomorrow. As it currently stands, there are too many factors (dual low, late phasing) mucking up a potentially great storm. Best dynamics blow their load west and south of us, then reconsolidate up in Maine/Canada with the parent low. There is still time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Even if this thing does come west and we end up under the main precip shield. Accumulation expectations should be tempered. This thing is absolutely trucking as it passes by. Would only be a 12-15 hr thump of flakes that are bound to be absolutely mangled by 100 mph winds off the deck. If you can get some lift the soundings off the GFS are pretty good looking. DGZ around 700mb and fairly saturated despite the GFS track. Think ratios would by pretty good, wind could be an issue I guess, but its really too early to look that in depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: There's still the much talked about sampling thats supposed to clear things up between 0z tonight and 12z tomorrow. As it currently stands, there are too many factors (dual low, late phasing) mucking up a potentially great storm. Best dynamics blow their load west and south of us, then reconsolidate up in Maine/Canada with the parent low. There is still time though. This.... which is why close solutions sill produce junk snow here. Almost feels like a no win situation at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The precip and wind fields are going to be quite expansive back to the west away from the SLP track on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This.... which is why close solutions sill produce junk snow here. Almost feels like a no win situation at this point These are details that can still change though. Thats why i say its worth waiting until 12z tomorrow with full sampling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 How I’d you SE guys (Taunton etc) do on Boxing Day 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: How I’d you SE guys (Taunton etc) do on Boxing Day 2010? It was meh where i lived at the time..near the canal. 4-5" followed by a mix/rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: The precip and wind fields are going to be quite expansive back to the west away from the SLP track on this system. Some of us are not picky and would love a 2-4" refresh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Ukmet misses just about entire sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Some of us are not picky and would love a 2-4" refresh. MPM would not endorse this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This.... which is why close solutions sill produce junk snow here. Almost feels like a no win situation at this point "Junk snow"...I hope it rains on you. Good lord. Junk snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Ukmet misses just about entire sub forum. I can only see precip out to hr 72 which the slp is not even in the Northeast yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 NAVGEM tucked in FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: I can only see precip out to hr 72 which the slp is not even in the Northeast yet. Posted in New York forum. It basically followed the NAM idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: How I’d you SE guys (Taunton etc) do on Boxing Day 2010? How ya feeling today, Fella? Heavy is the Crown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: How I’d you SE guys (Taunton etc) do on Boxing Day 2010? I got over a foot.. but I know it varied quite a bit from town to town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: How ya feeling today, Fella? Heavy is the Crown? Heavy is the weenie over thy face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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