OceanStWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not to mention the MCS of paste jobs the outer banks just had. You know, if I just slap a bearing on the past low position and its current, that trajectory is a lot closer to ACK. I do think there will be more easterly movement than the past couple of hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 im like the RHs of 70-80 percent in southern canada with SN- in ottawa currently... we will be on the edge here watching the big show, but hoping to maximize whatever moisture we get thrown back our way, with some CPV convergence for an extra bonus fingers crossed?...i'll be satisfied with 4 to freshen the pack, and 6+ would be a gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: You know, if I just slap a bearing on the past low position and its current, that trajectory is a lot closer to ACK. I do think there will be more easterly movement than the past couple of hours though. Already seeing it on satellite. What I'm attempting to look at right now is the dry air punch swinging behind it. How far does it travel? And any warm air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 You can see though that the main band of snow that would normally stretch from KHYP to KCAR is actually from HSE to just south of LI now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: You know, if I just slap a bearing on the past low position and its current, that trajectory is a lot closer to ACK. I do think there will be more easterly movement than the past couple of hours though. It’s starting to do that now I think. It looks like it’s been going more ENE. And what about that blob east of it? I like what the 3KM NAM does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Already seeing it on satellite. What I'm attempting to look at right now is the dry air punch swinging behind it. How far does it travel? And any warm air? The Euro and GFS smash it into Halifax. Maybe clips ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s starting to do that now I think. It looks like it’s been going more ENE. And what about that blob east of it? I like what the 3KM NAM does. Models just love convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Scott, Check out what Philippe papin just posted on Twitter regarding 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 12-18” for many many in the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 12-18” for many many in the forum I think you're looking really good right up into ORH down east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Yay me!! Nice strip right over my head in central CT on the models!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 This one is going to be memorable for sure. From OKX: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Forecast is on track. 00z NAM is around 5mb deeper than 12z run with sfc low as it passes southeast of the area, although track is similar. Not making any changes to headlines based on this, will let mid shift see more data, which also incorporates dropsondes from reconnaissance flight sent into the storm earlier today. 991mb low off the Carolina coast will track NE overnight with clouds lowering and thickening. Will need to watch the convection near the center of the low as the latent heat release tends to impact track and intensity. Otherwise, operational models in some cases show as many as 3 to 5 surface lows in the area near and east of the Gulf Stream off the Southeast United States coast tonight. It is possible in some instances the models may be struggling to resolve some of these meso-lows within the larger scale storm structure and evolution. This may play a role in how quickly they intensify the overall storm and also track once it develops. Given how cold it is, precipitation overnight will be all snow. The dry atmosphere will initially limit precipitation from reaching the surface but model cross sections show a rapid saturation of the atmosphere and thus once snow starts to fall it should have no trouble keeping on going. The WRF remains the most aggressive model as it deepens the surface low quicker and overall with respect to pressure and thus it is the first to crank out QPF across our area tonight. The best start time looks to be between 06Z and 09Z across Long Island and southern CT with snow starting closer to 09Z to 12Z from NYC and especially points north and west. Get an early start to your commute tomorrow morning if you need to travel. Temperatures tonight will not be as chilly as what we`ve seen recently due to the clouds and southerly flow with readings in the low to mid 20s along the coast and teens inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... And travel conditions will get worse as the morning goes on as the surface lows start to consolidate off or northeast of the Outer Banks and the low starts to rapidly intensify or bomb with respect to its pressure. The latest models have had a westward track and thus we again have had to shift the forecast to account for this. As mentioned above the WRF is the most robust with QPF with the Hi-Res NMM the lowest. A blend of the ECMWF/GFS/WRF operationally was followed for QPF. Some points of note based on the latest models: - This storm will be a quick hitter as it rapidly moves up the coast. Most areas will see a 6-12 hour window for steady snow of at least moderate intensity. - There is a warm nose noted in model forecast soundings along the coast with the thermal profile although it is generally at or below freezing except right at the surface. Thus some sleet is expected to mix in along the South Shore of Suffolk County, especially on the South Fork and in southeast coastal CT in the Groton-New London-Mystic area. This will hold down amounts in these areas with respect to snow. - Snow well north and west of The City (mainly in Orange County) will come in a very short window of one or two main bands. - Snowfall rates per SPC products and looking at model QPF could exceed one inch per hour especially from The City on eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Liked the euro juicing up, could still be lagging a tick too....looks like a big win for the little guys. Let’s do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Sub-970 (probably 969) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 27 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Yay me!! Nice strip right over my head in central CT on the models! . You worked hard on this event. So now Here comes a big deposit on your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sketcher709 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 It's been snowing here over an hour now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Whoa. Temps spiking into the low 40s parts of the cape and mid 30s in Plymouth. Nopoles was pessimistic and some of her pessimism seems to have been justified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Whoa. Temps spiking into the low 40s parts of the cape and mid 30s in Plymouth. Nopoles was pessimistic and some of her pessimism seems to have been justified.35 Duxbury Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, 25thamendmentfan said: Whoa. Temps spiking into the low 40s parts of the cape and mid 30s in Plymouth. Nopoles was pessimistic and some of her pessimism seems to have been justified. This isn't my first rodeo...I know where the coastal front usually sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 35 plymouth...just have to wait and see if the coastal front crashes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Sleet mixed with rain in Newport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 50 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You worked hard on this event. So now Here comes a big deposit on your backyard. Just nice to see that pretty much everyone gets a nice solid event. Should be an impressive storm for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Thoughts on when this really begins to crank up? 9-10am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, 25thamendmentfan said: Whoa. Temps spiking into the low 40s parts of the cape and mid 30s in Plymouth. Nopoles was pessimistic and some of her pessimism seems to have been justified. Just as modeled. Less posting, more reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: 35 plymouth...just have to wait and see if the coastal front crashes You look good for 6+ easily on latest hires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Yikes....that's not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Just as modeled. Less posting, more reading Do you have authority to make such a statement? This isn't my first rodeo either. I was alive when people were throwing bricks at school buses in southie so even though I don't have a red tag or high post count ground observations confirm this is farther west than modeled and I don't need to pay Joe bastardi 50 bucks to tell me so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, 25thamendmentfan said: Do you have authority to make such a statement? This isn't my first rodeo either. I was alive when people were throwing bricks at school buses in southie so even though I don't have a red tag or high post count ground observations confirm this is farther west than modeled and I don't need to pay Joe bastardi 50 bucks to tell me so. Seems to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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