Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 just looking at this as an unbiased hobbyist, even though its trucking, i have to figure there will be totals over 20 inches in mass/somewhere close to boston....but i could be very wrong lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 The HRRR had a lolli of 12-18" just SW of Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I think this run increases the risk of a minimum around here a bit.....shoves cf a bit east, and mid levels west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 It's pretty amazing to think this low is practically kissing HSE. Who thought that was going to be a reality a couple days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I think the mid level band on this run is back near the NYS border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 That was a pretty large mid level rh expansion northwestward for CT and NY folks. With obvious qpf increases. 500mb dries out in eastern ma by the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: That was a pretty large mid level rh expansion northwestward for CT and NY folks. With obvious qpf increases. 500mb dries out in eastern ma by the evening. I wasn't a fan of that run for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wasn't a fan of that run for my area. Yeah that run could throw some modest banding into Utica and Montreal lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Saw this coming (euro) And the trends over Delmarva with euro and Ukie were more impressive (1-1.6qpf) The Ukie qpf has that NNE finger of 2-3"(qpf) from off (HSE) to a bit south of Long Island. Where mid levels go boom over fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Not sure I agree with the Euro quite yet. I'm trusting the RAP and HRRR right now while watching the water vapor GOES imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Think this just got a lot more interesting for central and western CT peeps..game on now for a lot more of us than just the eastern folks...glad we’re finally aboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wasn't a fan of that run for my area. It did slow down a touch. Which could offset the other losses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Not sure the Euro with be as amped as that but we'll see. Time will prove that quicker than we all think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It did slow down a touch. Which could offset the other losses. Yea, I noticed that. Hopefully it verifies east of this....otherwise, I'd rather a continued shift west to lift the cf off of the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I hate that term bomb cyclone. Does everything have to get absurd these days? You know I've been meaning to post up about this all day.....Dylan Dreyer used it this morning on the Today show......I thought "Oh Jesus here we go again".....remember that winter of the "Polar Vortex".......stupid AF.....anyway I can't stop starting at the GOES 16 imagery......thing is ripping a hole in space south of Hat....incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I noticed that. Hopefully it verifies east of this. I don't think it's the kind of storm that there will be a large differences between backside deformation and low level stuff. There just isn't enough time for long term death banding stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 The ole 495 10-7 Split, who knows what will verify, but moneypitmike measuring 13" of fluff would be fun lol Ill be in Manch all day for snow removal Seems banding will be ok there for a bit 1 minute ago, ice1972 said: You know I've been meaning to post up about this all day.....Dylan Dreyer used it this morning on the Today show......I thought "Oh Jesus here we go again".....remember that winter of the "Polar Vortex".......stupid AF.....anyway I can't stop starting at the GOES 16 imagery......thing is ripping a hole in space south of Hat....incredible Bombogenesis well underway How far west will she wobble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: I don't think it's the kind of storm that there will be a large differences between backside deformation and low level stuff. There just isn't enough time for long term death banding stuff. Who cares, still means the difference between 10" and 17". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 There's got to be a nasty sting jet on this thing right now. Starting to get that bent back warm front look, and the way the cloud tops are warming (descending) on the edge of that cusp point towards some significant wind coming down from aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Who cares, still means the difference between 10" and 17". I doubt you get 10 dude. But whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Ray should hump HRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 The HRRR actually wraps the color curve around and has 90+ knot 10 m wind gusts in the next couple of hours in that sting jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, OSUmetstud said: I doubt you get 10 dude. But whatever. I could see someone getting that little in an exhaust slot. Disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Now-cast shows this thing wants to move further west than 0z models take it (in next 6 hours) not that this is shocking given trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Ray should hump HRR. Post the map? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Ray should hump HRR. I Know, I've been watching that too along with the RAP model. We all should be using these now for now casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: There's got tbeauty nasty sting jet on this thing right now. Starting to get that bent back warm front look, and the way the cloud tops are warming (descending) on the edge of that cusp point towards some significant wind coming down from aloft. Its time to put away models and LOOK at the Beauty of This thing now. Cache this. Its blowing a hole in the atmosphere now and gonna slide more Due N next few hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Post the map? Thanks. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018010405&fh=18&xpos=0&ypos=309 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Its time to put away models and LOOK at the Beauty of This thing now. Cache this. Its blowing a hole in the atmosphere now and gonna slide more NW next few hrs I wish there was a buoy in that zone, but it's kind of a data gap right now. I believe every bit of the HRRR 90 knot forecast gust off Cape Lookout right now. Classic display of a sting jet formation, right down to the outflow producing low level clouds at the tip of the jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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