dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Start high and adjust up if necessary. Reading Hanes short term AFD, He sounded like he had a lot of uncertainty on the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I get the sense that somewhere in RI gets the jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 H7/H5 mid level fronto CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41033 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41029 Both the same wind speed no typo pretty windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS also looked a hair colder, RS line farther SE, more of a warm core. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Dan76 said: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41033 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41029 Both the same wind speed no typo pretty windy. Thunderstorm may have gone overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNurse Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Reading Hanes short term AFD, He sounded like he had a lot of uncertainty on the outcome. I am picking up the same vibe and have for the entire discussion about this storm from GYX. It’s interesting to see that we’re still only looking at 8-10” in my area. They have shifted upward over last 12hrs to account for the hints at a more westward solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 H5 kev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Reading Hanes short term AFD, He sounded like he had a lot of doub't on the outcome. She was sick yesterday, so my guess is a lot of catching up to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NWS Albany going with WSW all the way back to the Berkshires and 4" for the Capital district. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WeatherNurse said: I am picking up the same vibe and have for the entire discussion about this storm from GYX. It’s interesting to see that we’re still only looking at 8-10” in my area. They have shifted upward over last 12hrs to account for the hints at a more westward solution. This storm has carried a much larger short term uncertainty than normal. Ryan and I were talking yesterday about how for a > 72 hour forecast the GEFS spread was greater than 99th percentile. So I think despite relatively small deterministic track shifts, there is more uncertainty than many think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: She was sick yesterday, so my guess is a lot of catching up to do. I think i have spoke with her a few times when i call in totals, Is there another woman met besides her there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 CPV Convergence may give us a boost tomorrow in BTV. A meso band may also set up somewhere in VT but nobody knows exactly where yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I think i have spoke with her a few times when i call in totals, Is there another woman met besides her there? There are two others that would possibly answer phone calls depending on the time of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNurse Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: This storm has carried a much larger short term uncertainty than normal. Ryan and I were talking yesterday about how for a > 72 hour forecast the GEFS spread was greater than 99th percentile. So I think despite relatively small deterministic track shifts, there is more uncertainty than many think. Nowcast storm for sure! I would be happier with bit more certainty so I know whether or not i’m running the race training mom shuttle with 4 pairs of skis or the we’re outta here going freeskiing shuttle!! Basically, it’s all about me and which skis I have to load in the am You have a guess as to whether we get precip before 0500? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: There are two others that would possibly answer phone calls depending on the time of day. Ok, I thought there was at least two, I have spoke to both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The ECMWF is certainly farther east than the GFS/NAM with the best H5-H7 lift and frontogenesis. Should be a hellacious thump with lift maximized through the DGZ. The Euro is PVD-HFD with that front (sloped east to west from 700mb up to 500mb) while the 18z GFS is like IJD-POU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, WintersComing said: I get the sense that somewhere in RI gets the jack. Thinking part of Ct to L.I is destroyed by The heaviest of the deathband And that areas on The north side will need to take em down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: It's just the whole idea of the thing....you know...A Blizzard Warning Man...doesn't happen too often so it makes a Weenie feel good. I’m on north shore of LI and there’s quite a jump in blizzard warnings in current decade (*not saying each one verified). We share quite similar climate to SNE so I believe most of these also occurred in SNE. From memory: Feb 2010 Dec 2010 perhaps Jan 2011 Feb 2013. Jan 2014. Jan 2015. Jan 2016. Feb 2017 Jan 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: NWS Albany going with WSW all the way back to the Berkshires and 4" for the Capital district. bullish because it does not match with OKX leading up to Litchfield county. I dont trust OkX at all so I’ll just go with ALY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Awesome BOX AFD 428pm... great detail of mechanics... and some forecasting excerpts: Still some uncertainty re: snowfall amounts: "Mass fiends and coincident dynamics slightly juxtaposed among the guidance, but there is consensus on how unprecedented this system is, its dynamics, associated lift / omega / banding signatures while subtly off from one another roughly W to E. Incredibly difficult to forecast, quite the headache. Any tiny shift on the order of 10 miles can make all the difference in snow amounts, main threats, impacts." "Guidance continuing to wobble, perhaps due to latent heat / convective feedback issues." "Final note, feel snow amounts are overshadowing the bigger impacts to this system. Incredible to say the least, when is the last time we saw such a bombing storm, the likes of which CIPS Analogs poorly score. Strong to damaging winds along with coastal flood impacts are more than likely to be the bigger players, yielding damage to infrastructure along with scattered to widespread power outages as colder air surges in from the W as we go into the late week period." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 When was the last time boston saw a storm this strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The ECMWF is certainly farther east than the GFS/NAM with the best H5-H7 lift and frontogenesis. Should be a hellacious thump with lift maximized through the DGZ. The Euro is PVD-HFD with that front (sloped east to west from 700mb up to 500mb) while the 18z GFS is like IJD-POU. Split the diff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Has meteotrade or ventrice posted the 18z Deep Thruster yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Has meteotrade or ventrice posted the 18z Deep Thruster yet? It was thrusted up Ryans fanny at 12z, lets see how stable it is or if it needs to be adjusted deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: NWS Albany going with WSW all the way back to the Berkshires and 4" for the Capital district. Ambitious. 3k or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: bullish because it does not match with OKX leading up to Litchfield county. I dont trust OkX at all so I’ll just go with ALY. OKX has a tough job here. There's a lot of uncertainty in their area considering that's where the gradient will likely end up between the western zones just getting light mood snows and southeastern zones an all out blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RPM? Tyia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: RPM? Tyia only out to 13h....21z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Has meteotrade or ventrice posted the 18z Deep Thruster yet? Not in yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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