wxsniss Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I'm not questioning the pressures. I don't understand the warm seclusion physics leading to rapid intensification. This clearly isn't going through normal mid latitude cyclone/TC development. I did some quick reading up on it; but there doesn't seem to be any text book universal "model" for how these systems strengthen... Additionally this system continues to intensify long after H5 occlusion....What's driving that? I've been asking this since Tues morning with no answers and I still don't have a good grasp. The system occludes and is stacked by NC/VA. I believe it because pretty universal model consensus for deepening all the way to our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Who posted something about 'hallucinations" posts about to emerge? GYX calling for 10-14" at Pit2. Only 40mph gusts. I thought they'd be stronger. Bring ‘em up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, CarverWX said: Seems kinda weak in this area. But we shall see. A little concerned that it may be mild like a 34 Fahrenheit snow for a time until after 11 12 o’clock or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Well I would say the SPC mesoanalysis SLP is our to lunch. Based on satellite, the cusp has formed well west of the RAP analysis. It’s much closer to the WPC representation of the surface analysis. This is a closer starting position to where models like the GFS has it last night. West of the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You serious? sometimes I can’t tell. I call that success Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Most uncertainty, for me, lies in Fairfield and Litchfield counties. I could see pulling that 4-6 east and south, at the same time i was debating 6-12 statewide. Confident in reaching those numbers central on east. For now will leave it as is. Hopefully I won't have to change it tomorrow. Think that's a really good and fair call. As talked about by many if a deform band sets up somewhere may go higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I still want mine! 1mi is not too much to ask from the NWS. I've got one, but in all seriousness, I could get rain. At least you are guaranteed snow. You're in a better position than I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Harveyhttps://i.imgur.com/YZAcp7P.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Well I would say the SPC mesoanalysis SLP is our to lunch. Based on satellite, the cusp has formed well west of the RAP analysis. It’s much closer to the WPC representation of the surface analysis. This is a closer starting position to where models like the GFS has it last night. West of the 0z Euro. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 rgem looks blah. i hate seeing qpf cut back towards game time. not even talking about the nam, but the 3km was pretty paltry for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, wxsniss said: I've been asking this since Tues morning with no answers and I still don't have a good grasp. The system occludes and is stacked by NC/VA. I believe it because pretty universal model consensus for deepening all the way to our latitude. That warm seclusion helps it maintain strength. All signs point to this becoming asymmetric warm core for a time (maybe long time) and because of that latent heating can help to maintain strength long after upper levels would support strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 rgem run is bad, what a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: That warm seclusion helps it maintain strength. All signs point to this becoming asymmetric warm core for a time (maybe long time) and because of that latent heating can help to maintain strength long after upper levels would support strengthening. Tough forecast with how it evolves. Seems like the SLP track is pretty agreed upon up here but the shape/size of the H7-H5 low seems more uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, ajisai said: Harveyhttps://i.imgur.com/YZAcp7P.jpg Inside 495 win. Seems like a decent forecast to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, wxsniss said: I've been asking this since Tues morning with no answers and I still don't have a good grasp. The system occludes and is stacked by NC/VA. I believe it because pretty universal model consensus for deepening all the way to our latitude. It's really odd, and difficult to conceptualize. But when we say "cut-off" that's typically in the sense of both the UL jet and thermal gradients simultaneously. In this case, it's almost as though it cuts off twice -- the first time from the UL jet only (around 36N) and the second time from the thermal gradient only (around NS). In this way it intensifies long after it is "cut-off" at H5. How the physical processes work, however is still beyond me at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That warm seclusion helps it maintain strength. All signs point to this becoming asymmetric warm core for a time (maybe long time) and because of that latent heating can help to maintain strength long after upper levels would support strengthening. Interesting - that's easy enough to understand quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Why does anyone care whether their backyard is actually in an adv, warn or watch ? baffles the mind, but serious energy is expended hand wringing over whether one's like "in the club" I guess - I'm preeetty sure the text says, in or "around" the region in question ...that should cover it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Ugh If anything I thought the 12z and 18z runs were colder for our area..across model suites. I think you flip to heavy snow with only an hour or two wasted on rain. The EURO and NAM runs were solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-truecolor-96-1-100 Should be a show for the ages! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Going to be plenty of surprises with this, I'm sure. Def more than the run-of the mill Nor Easter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: If anything I thought the 12z and 18z runs were colder for our area..across model suites. I think you flip to heavy snow with only an hour or two wasted on rain. The EURO and NAM runs were solid Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Going to be plenty of surprises with this, I'm sure. Def more than the run-of the mill Nor Easter... The golden age of big coastal lows continues... maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Haven't looked at anything else since this morning but the 18z NAM's FRH grid lopped half the QPF off, and raised the surface pressure over Logan by a signficant amt in both cases... interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Thinking 6-10” here. I see 33-35F wet snow falling until the winds snap back to kill the BL warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Nice update by BOX 12-18 for my area.. I'm thinking 12-14" most likely.. good luck everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Someone check on James please.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 HRRR with 957mb @ 13z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That warm seclusion helps it maintain strength. All signs point to this becoming asymmetric warm core for a time (maybe long time) and because of that latent heating can help to maintain strength long after upper levels would support strengthening. 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: It's really odd, and difficult to conceptualize. But when we say "cut-off" that's typically in the sense of both the UL jet and thermal gradients simultaneously. In this case, it's almost as though it cuts off twice -- the first time from the UL jet only (around 36N) and the second time from the thermal gradient only (around NS). In this way it intensifies long after it is "cut-off" at H5. How the physical processes work, however is still beyond me at this point... Thanks guys Warm core, as in tropical cyclone mechanics sustaining intensification north of VA/NC...? I'm not gonna pretend to understand the physical processes, how an asymmetric warm core relates to conveyer belt and other mechanics of cold core lows, and how this alters our interpretation of guidance. But much to learn from this system in next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 and so it begins.. 21z down to ~994mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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