WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I would freeze my weenie off if the 3k verified. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, wxsniss said: A jog NW and close to BM track... but much tighter QPF field --> sharper gradients and significantly higher qpf and snow amounts in southeast MA into Cape This 18z NAM run looks pretty close to 12z Euro. Goal posts reinforced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 You would this when it occludes the precip field should expand, I thought it should of had more back to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12z Wednesday run of the ECMWF basically same as 12z tuesday (yesterday run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NWS now bumping me up as well. 6-12 with localized amounts up to 14 with gust to 50 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: Yeah it has that post-occlusion look to the precip distribution to me on the hourly panels. Not sure that's right but wouldn't be totally surprised if it is more of a "shredded radar" vs. uniform precip shield kind of storm. I mean...almost every model has the seclusion. It's not tropical. All of the hires models are sub 950 and the globals are 950s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said: Do you mean western areas? Yes. It's been a long day at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That 3km NAM pressure and placement are the stuff of weenie dreams Too bad it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 LOL that winter weather adv for northern fairfield, rest of state is now under winter storm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Really, I get stuck in an advisory?!?! I hope somehow I pull off a foot of snow out of this just so i can point this out....Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, DomNH said: Yeah it has that post-occlusion look to the precip distribution to me on the hourly panels. Not sure that's right but wouldn't be totally surprised if it is more of a "shredded radar" vs. uniform precip shield kind of storm. Perhaps I'm misreading this but the only way I understand that early "cut-off" at H5 is for the models to be seeing a bonafide TC at those hours, which makes no sense to me. How else is this "cut off" while being so disconnected from the cold air behind it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I mean...almost every model has the seclusion. It's not tropical. All of the hires models are sub 950 and the globals are 950s. Agreed that the warm seclusion is right, just not sure what the radar presentation is going to look like tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if it's shredded and we have weenie meltdowns, potentially including myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNurse Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, bobbutts said: That was the 12z with the big totals.. 18z cuts them by 1/2 pretty much statewide. Big uncertainty with this one. I like uncertainty - keeps it interesting!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just heard from Steve, (Ginx) He says they have issues at work with frozen sprinkler pipe and a big mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: LOL that winter weather adv for northern fairfield, rest of state is now under winter storm warning. I looked at the updated map and sighed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wow, the 3kmNammy is a crusher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, WxBlue said: Yes. It's been a long day at work. No worries! I’m not getting much of a handle on this from models, NWS or anywhere else for that matter. It just seems like it’s a very difficult storm to forecast and right now it’s a big, hot mess! I reckon I’m confused and have data overload from this thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Blizzard warning up for central and eastern LI...I'll guess that portions of the CT Coast will have those hoisted at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yeah 3km has had the best handle down south since this morning. Think it’s safe to ride her Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just heard from Steve, (Ginx) He says they have issues at work with frozen sprinkler pipe and a big mess. Thanks. Many issues. Hope he is feeling better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah 3km has had the best handle down south since this morning. Think it’s safe to ride her How rare for it would it be for Tolland and southeastern CT to fall under the same heavy banding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: Agreed that the warm seclusion is right, just not sure what the radar presentation is going to look like tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if it's shredded and we have weenie meltdowns, potentially including myself. Yeah...it's tough man. You know how it goes. Every once in awhile you get a system that seems to have a consensus and then you get some surprises. Mega convection and a 950mb low doesn't leave me with confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said: I looked at the updated map and sighed. It's because of the gradient. Parts of the county are under the warning for 3-5 while BDR is 4-8. Tough call for OKX when it's right on the line like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said: No worries! I’m not getting much of a handle on this from models, NWS or anywhere else for that matter. It just seems like it’s a very difficult storm to forecast and right now it’s a big, hot mess! I reckon I’m confused and have data overload from this thing! Plan on 10-14" with some wind, Unless we can sit under a band, Your a little further NE then me and i'm thinking 12" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Thanks. Many issues. Hope he is feeling better He probably feels worse from whats going on at work, Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said: I looked at the updated map and sighed. don't worry. minor oversight. will be upgraded later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Blizzard warnings just south of my location, very close to my house ~ 15 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, WintersComing said: LOL It’s still paltry with the qpf but nw bands usually overperform qpf anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah...it's tough man. You know how it goes. Every once in awhile you get a system that seems to have a consensus and then you get some surprises. Mega convection and a 950mb low doesn't leave me with confidence. Yep, agreed. There will definitely be some funky things to track tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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