TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I’d hit the UKIE.... 14-18” here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Thy barometer doth tickled 954 mb on the Santa Maria. The parlor barometer reached twenty-eight and fifty one-hundredths on a level. The ear drums of Edith Wilson's boy were said to have instantaneously popped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 WPC Discussion this morning PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS, 00Z ECMWF, 06Z GEFS, 00Z EC ENSCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEMODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE TO GRADUALLY NUDGE THE POSITION OF THEEVOLVING CYCLONE FURTHER WEST. THIS HAS BEEN APPARENT ON THE 12ZGFS AND NAM...AND IS PRETTY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE SPECTRUM OFAVAILABLE MODELS. OVER THE PAST THREE CYCLES (02/00Z TO03/00Z)...THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS NUDGED THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW ON THURSDAY MORNING ABOUT 60MI TO THE WSW INDICATING A WESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND OVERALL...AND THIS TREND MAGNITUDE IS SIMILAR TO OTHER MODELS.CONFIDENCE IN THE WESTWARD TREND IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY BY THE LATEST GOES-16 WATER VAPOR LOOPS WHICH SHOW THE BASE OF THE EJECTING WAVE IN THE SOUTHEAST TODAY GENERALLY STAYING NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INITIALIZING A LITTLE TOO LOW WITH 500MB HEIGHTS IN NERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES (20M TOO LOW MAINE TO NOVA SCOTIA). A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TREND IN THE EJECTING WAVE...AND A MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM RIDGE...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/DEEPER SYSTEM THAT IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NORTH WITH THE EJECTING WAVE.THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE THE MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE COLD SECTOR AS THE LOW PUSHES UP THE COAST...AND THIS IS A TYPICAL BIAS IN THE MODEL. IT IS ALSO FURTHEST WEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS OVERALL HAVE CONVERGED OVER THE PAST COUPLE MODEL CYCLES. REMAINING DETAIL DIFFERENCES WOULD AFFECTSOME SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ALONG THE PTYPE AND PRECIPGRADIENTS...SO TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL CYCLES WILL STILLBE IMPORTANT TO MONITOR.A USAF RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO SAMPLE THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW IS LIKELY TO BE RAPIDLY DEEPENING. THESE ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS MAY HELP NARROW THE MODEL SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER...PARTICULARLY AS ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ULTIMATE LOW TRACK AND TIMING IS SENSITIVE TO CONDITIONS OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.OTHERWISE...THE 12Z GFS...06Z GEFS...AND 00Z ECMWF AND EC ENS MEANAPPEAR TO OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH THEIR MASS FIELDS AND VERYSIMILAR LOW TRACKS AND INTENSITIES. THEREFORE A BLEND OF THESEMODELS IS PREFERRED FOR THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...STORM STRUCTURE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN QPF DISTRIBUTION AND BANDING. FOR MORE ONTHAT...PLEASE REFER TO THE QPF AND HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSIONS FROM WPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12z Euro looks a couple tics west of the 0z run early on down south, Southern stream s/w looks better too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Euro out to 15, everything looks good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: 12z Euro looks a couple tics west of the 0z run early on down south. Lemme guess, deer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Lemme guess, deer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Don't see any glaring differences to me. Maybe a little more qpf FOR mpm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Snow on the palms in Savannah GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 956 at our latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Should fun where you are..take pics Will do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Don't see any glaring differences to me. Maybe a little more qpf FOR mpm Looked about the same once it got up here, Not as robust with the precip as 0z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisDash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 barometers are falling sharply with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Goalposts set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, ChrisDash said: barometers are falling sharply with this storm I remember that, classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 My thoughts. BOS 15” TOL 8” Ray 14” ORH 10” TAN 12” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, bboughton said: OT but Politico does some really good stuff. And some really bad stuff. This is really bad stuff. But he’s not even a meteorologist. He’s just a weenie. Maybe he was referring to the hype being blown out of proportion because the storm really skims the major cities (other than New England). Most people don't understand barometric pressures etc. etc. and how epic this system is relative to climatology. That is all I can give him in his defense.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 So it sounds like it'll be passing close to, if not over the BM. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Rooting for some 20:1 deform delights but I think that may end up justttttttttt a hair west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 55 minutes ago, klw said: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/948581306882981889 I buy the placement of the band, but too heavy west of it. Band fits my first call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, MarkO said: So it sounds like it'll be passing close to, if not over the BM. I'll take it! The Euro? Couldn't see. Jerry confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Euro out to 18. Its 4mb stronger and maybe 25 miles NNW of 0Z SE of Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 30 hours 35 miles NW of 0Z position Sorry guys, that was 24 hour position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: 30 hours 35 miles NW of 0Z position Its at hr 78................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 51 minutes ago, Hazey said: This has Groundhog day 76' written all over it for up here. Disastah... Hours and Hours of 70mph+ gusts. Bye bye power The Storm That Drowned Bangor. Coastal Hancock County (Stonington, IIRC) recorded a southerly gust of 115 mph in that one. All that southerly wind blew so much water up the Penobscot estuary that downtown BGR saw the level rise 15 feet in 15 minutes, drowning about 200 cars in the Kenduskeag parking lots. (Almost drowned a young woman as well, but a fellow- total stranger to the woman - swam out and got her to safety. 6 months later they got married, just like in the romance novels but this actually happened.) With the late morning wind shift, BGR temp plummeted from 57 to 1, destroying any chance of fixing the submerged vehicles. CAR barometer dropped to 957, their lowest on record, and they may have been east of the center. In Ft. Kent we dropped from 46 during the downpour gales to -11 that evening, 44 at 1 PM to -6 at 6 PM. The ice holes on public roads there were spectacular, and the logging roads west of Allagash were truck-breakers for the rest of winter. Certainly hope you don't get a repeat. Hope that we don't, either. Was gonna say...nothin like those Jun and Jul bombs. If those fake warm-season bombs had included 7/20/96, they would've at least had a bit of credibility. That was MWN's windiest day in met summer, probably by a significant margin, with an average velocity of 99 mph over the 24 hours. Must've been something deep in the vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 30 hours 35 miles NW of 0Z position Down to about 950 as it passes us. Maybe 40/68ish? Still almost 90mb pressure differential too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Hoth said: The Euro? Couldn't see. Jerry confirm? Sorry, based on the WPC discussion and previous model trends. Not sure if the Euro incorporates the WPC details, but regardless, the Euro should be pretty close to the BM. Can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Compared to 0z, 12z Euro looks initially a tick west thru 24 hours... then trajectory is more easterly so ends up a tick farther southeast from the BM by 30 hours BOS qpf 1.1-1.2 on 12z run up from ~ 1.0 on 0z run 0.5 qpf past Worcester, a tick further west compared to 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbydoppler Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 34 minutes ago, weathafella said: No matter how you slice it, it appears I’m going to get shellacked. Psyched! Where’s Steve? KOWD, looks like we're in the same boat. I'm a newbie here and my knowledge level is enthusiast at best, so please excuse my ignorance...but does Blue Hills area have any influence on weather/precip for our location, or is it too small? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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