moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 CMC looking a smidge SE as of 24z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I guess it's now 18z or bust for me to get another push westward. I think the 3-5" I had at this time yesterday is where NW Mass lands. Can we say congrats Maine, again? You’re 6+ on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said: How much affect could latent heat release from extreme convection have on downstream ridging and ultimate track? It seems like this piece of the puzzle might be tough to handle with such a rapidly deepening storm. I just keep thinking of last March, where everything just kept backing more west every run. Granted, the mesos seem to have paused for now, but we'll see how things go when this sucker starts taking off this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said: How much affect could latent heat release from extreme convection have on downstream ridging and ultimate track? It seems like this piece of the puzzle might be tough to handle with such a rapidly deepening storm. I have no idea but agree thats tough to pinpoint even at 24-36hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12z CMC will have you lined up at the Tobin.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 12z GEM would be an eastern outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The CMC is dreadful for CT..not even that good for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 CMC is dry as f- It's not like it is that much different with the SLP. QPF is much much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Not looking good for coastal peeps...this has damage on the water written all over it. Flying icebergs. I'm down cutting 8" ice on the oyster farm Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2-4" on the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Hoth said: I just keep thinking of last March, where everything just kept backing more west every run. Granted, the mesos seem to have paused for now, but we'll see how things go when this sucker starts taking off this afternoon. Yes but the mid levels inland in March which was a red flag for like 2 days. This has mid levels underneath us. Need great inflow and a sick deform band to get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It makes sense to me Kev. We shall see. I am not saying expect 20"..but take the QPF and then add in a fluffer there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: You’re 6+ on GFS. Yeah, we will be on the edge of some good banding out here could be 5" or could be 8". Either way I better plan on being home with the boy tomorrow, school closings look like a lock state wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It makes sense to me Kev. We shall see. I am not saying expect 20"..but take the QPF and then add in a fluffer there. So sounds like a happy ending? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 CMC rocks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah, we will be on the edge of some good banding out here could be 5" or could be 8". Either way I better plan on being home with the boy tomorrow, school closings look like a lock state wide. CMC says go to school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: CMC rocks! ha, push all the snow off the deck and into the ocean...you are brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 CMC gives NYC just about as much as Boston....toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, tamarack said: Wind certainly cuts down the ratio, but IMO dendrite formation can be an even bigger factor. The 2 big snows of Dec 2003 show a real contrast. The 6-7 storm had extended blizzard criteria, winds gusting 35-40, and put down 24.0" with 1.63" LE and temps near 20, ratio 14.7-to-1. The event on the 15th came with similar temps, winds gusting into the 20s, and brought 13.0" on 1.53" LE, ratio 8.5-to-1. Despite significantly lesser winds and equivalent temp, the latter storm's ratio was far lower. (Both storms came mainly through the night, so no flake size obs are remembered.) The upcoming event seemingly gets better and better with almost every run. There's usually some backing off at some point. We'll see. Interesting! Thanks, Tamarack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 But the cmc illustrates just how nuts this system is so close in. Will be fun to look back afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Funny how CMC led with western charge and has jumped ship close in as everything else comes on board. Take off, eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12z NAM says Roger Smith is on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 <cweat>tick east is real </cweat> RIP Im jk, to not offend the western folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Spanks45 said: CMC gives NYC just about as much as Boston....toss? Terrible CFI on that run. Dumps its entire load to the northeast of the surface low the entire way up the coast. QPF output is tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: CMC gives NYC just about as much as Boston....toss? 3k NAM NYC laughs at Boston. But we all know that' not true. NYC will be 5-8" and Boston 12-16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisDash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I don't know, isn't the GFS 1200 run showing a more easterly track now? Wouldn't that be more in line with the CMC? Then again, I don't know much about this stuff, just basing on looks of the maps alone. I'm new to the forum and have been a long time model map lurker... (Image below from PSU e-Wall site) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looks reasonable...CFI gone wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Between the 3k and the CMC, the goal posts are set for GC: .5" - 15". Somewhere in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, Hoth said: I just keep thinking of last March, where everything just kept backing more west every run. Granted, the mesos seem to have paused for now, but we'll see how things go when this sucker starts taking off this afternoon. There wasn't an arctic airmass in place before and after the storm in March like what we're going to be seeing Thursday and into the weekend. That arctic high to the north of us is a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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